GIII $125K Great Fishing Hole Stakes
GIII 6f fast dirt 3yo only $125K
PP1 The Kraken Menace (KY) 10/1– Nane– On the rail we have a scratch bred son of Andromeda’s Hero out of a War Chant mare with four wins in fifteen starts. This guy has three stakes wins and is trying graded company for the first time. This is a step up for him, but he is tested and belongs here. He has been running at 6.5 and seven furlongs, but I think that six is his preferred distance. His career best speed figure of 104 is enough and has also ran a 103. This puts him near the top in this race. If the pace is soft he will be near the front but is capable of stalking or even closing if need be and has won doing all three. The 10/1 morning line seems like a bit of a gift as I think he has a real big shot this week to get a graded win. This horse has been brought along perfectly and is ready for this.
Expected pace- Closer/ stalker. Very versatile, can be anywhere.
Expected finish-2nd Not the best horse but, certainly has a big shot and could get his first graded victory.
PP2 Chattooga (KY) 16/1– Hoofers- Up next we have another scratch bred out of War Chant and a Pleasant Colony mare with only two wins in eight starts. This horse looks like he needs a start on the turf, his breeding screams turf, and while he has had some success it looks like he could be better. As it stands now however, his top speed figure of 97 is going to be a bit short this week. He will try to show some early speed, but I don’t think he makes the lead, and has zero chance if he does not. Most of his success has come in very short field and has yet to pick up a check in a field greater than eight horses. It seems that seven furlongs is his best distance as he lacks the front end speed of a true sprinter.
Expected pace- On the lead or near it if he can get there.
Expected finish- 12th I think this is a turf horse, but not quite enough for this field.
PP3 Cheap Thrillers (IRE) 5/1– Worldwide– Yet another scratch bred, out of Danehill Dancer (IRE) out of a Fappiano mare with three wins in thirteen starts. Just one look at this pedigree and it screams speed. This horse’s form is superb at the moment and is most certainly the class of the field. He ran his career best speed figure of 109 two starts back and then followed it up with a 106 in his last start. He has won a graded stake back in June of last year and again this last April. He is shortening up this week as he has done a good portion of his last four months at seven furlongs and a mile. As he has run shorter he has run faster and this week should be no exception. Look for him to be mid pack or stalking, and should take over at the top of the lane for the win.
Expected pace- Mid pack/ stalker
Expected finish- 1st The class of the field, it is his race to loose.
PP4 Howard’s End (KY) 6/1– Simond5- Next we have a son of Henny Huges out of the dam Monster Strike (G-rated Awesome Again x Mr. Prospector). He has five wins in fourteen starts and is in very good form right now. His last start was at six furlongs and resulted in a stakes win, so the distance suits him well. His career best speed figure of 105 is second best in the field and makes a win a distinct possibility. This horse is a true stalker and is very good at it. I do not think the pace is going to be very hot and he might get a jump on the closers. On another note,, while this horse is still young a try on the turf might be in order as the breeding makes sense in that light. His one crack at graded competition did not end well, but that was at seven furlongs, but a 97 is not horrible either.
Expected pace- Stalker
Expected finish- 3rd Has a shot if the pace is soft. A hot pace sets it up for the closers which have a little more talent.
PP5 Think Tank (KY) 10/1– Lender1– in post five we have a son of Unbridled’s Song out of the mare In Front Door (H-rated Elusive Quality x Kris S.). He has three wins in ten starts, one of which was a stakes win in June of last year. This is another horse that is shortening up, but unlike the others I don’t think he will care for it. From the looks of his previous efforts, a mile to nine furlongs looks like his best distance. He tends to fall way back early in races, and the shorter distance may put him too far out to be a factor late. A speed figure of 101 is his best effort and that happened in his last race five weeks ago at seven furlongs. Other than one race in his career he has been closing at the wire and I just think that he needs more distance, not less. His pedigree would suggest that he could run all the way up to a classic distance. I just do not see a sprinter here.
Expected pace- Deep closer. Will not be anywhere near the lead early.
Expected finish- 8th Not a sprinter, will be closing late, but not enough room this week.
PP6 Adonai (KY) 41/1– Theprofit– Next we have a son of Afleet Alex out of the mare Racey Cap (E-rated Capote x Raise a Native) who has five wins in fourteen starts. Form is a problem right now as his last two starts have been atrocious, and other than a career best 97 three races ago this whole year has been pretty bad. He did have a nice run in graded stakes last fall, but has fallen off badly since then, and needs to find his game in order to get a check. He has been beaten by a combined 44 lengths in his last two starts and looks like a drop in class to find his form might be in order. This is a very good horse that is just not running well right now. In his best races he is stalking the early pace, but if he falls back early his day is done.
Expected pace- Stalker
Expected finish- 14th This colt is in a slump right now and a graded stakes is not the place to fix it.
PP7 Smokin Panama (KY) 14/1– Kneeboot- next we have a nicely bred colt out of Tiznow and the excellent dam Smokin Two BS (B-rated Gone West x Known Fact). He has four wins in eleven starts and is coming off of a career best speed figure of 101which resulted in a stakes win. I love the way this horse is running right now, but I do not like this distance for him. In his last two starts he was as many as ten lengths back, and was flying at the end, but no way that works this week. The pace will not be super hot this week, but he will still be pretty far back, and six furlongs is just not enough race track to get there. This guy looks like a great miler with this running style. The other fact working against him is that he will need his third career best speed figure in as many weeks to win and that is a rare thing in deed.
Expected pace- Deep closer, will be WAAAAAAYYYYY back early.
Expected finish- 9th not enough race for this guy, he needs longer than six furlongs, but has an outside shot I suppose.
PP8 Maalox Moment (KY) 13/1– Stupor2– In the eight post we have a scratch bred son of Gone West out of a Green Desert mare with five wins in ten starts. A fifty percent win percentage may seem great but it is a bit of an illusion. Four of the five wins were in fields of seven or less and his career best speed figure of 100 is not quite enough. This is another horse that is shortening up after four starts of 7.5 furlongs and a mile, but I don’t think it will help his form much. His last race was a GIII at a mile and finished last, fourteen lengths back. His best distances seem to be 7.5 and a mile, but he does have some speed so six furlongs might work, as he has three wins at this distance. He should be the speed of the race, but it is hard to say with all of the short fields he has faced. His one race on dirt in a full field he was unable to get the lead, and was out of it half way through.
Expected pace- on the lead
Expected finish- 13th Do not think he can get the lead, and can’t win if he doesn’t.
PP9 Vorreedi (KY) 11/1- Vor- And the scratch bred parade continues with this son of Bernardini out of a Danzig mare. He has five wins in only nine starts, and is coming off his best race with a 105 speed figure and a third place finish in a G III. Not sure why Vor is shortening this guy up this week as his best distance seems to be a mile, but has won sprinting also. He lacks a sprinters pedigree, and I don’t know if he has the true speed to be super competitive this week. This colt is generally a stalker but will run on the lead if the pace is soft or there is a short field. He has a shot this week, but I really think he will be doing his best work sprinting. If the pace ends up hot he can close, but there should not be a super fast pace. Expect a little regression this week as the 105 was so much higher than his previous best of 98.
Expected pace- Stalker, but can lead or close.
Expected finish- 4th Do not think he will care for the distance, but should get a check on class alone.
PP10 Weebala (MD) 10/1– Dundy– In the ten hole we have a son of Lion Hearted out of the mare Tasty (F-rated Danzig x A.P. Indy) with five wins in fourteen starts. This is another horse that is coming off of a career best speed figure of 105 which followed a previous career best. There is little chance that he can avoid at least a small regression off of an effort that was so far above his previous form. If he can duplicate the 105, he could be in the mix, but I don’t see it happening. His form is outstanding however, and has been improving greatly over the last three months. He should be out front or near the lead early, but can win from a stalking position. He does have a graded victory at seven furlongs back in September of last year. I think that his best distance is going to be around a mile, and is not really a true sprinter. His best results should happen once he stretches back out.
Expected pace- On or near the lead.
Expected finish- 10th not his best distance, and could bounce badly this week.
PP11 Encostina (AUS) 25/1– Superfecta– Next up is a son of Encosta De Lago (AUS) out of the dam Concertina (G-rated Crafty Prospector x Storm Cat) with four wins in fifteen starts. After spending the first half of his career this guy has been moved to the dirt with positive results. He has one stakes win which occurred two races back with a 100 speed figure at six furlongs. His last outing resulted in an injury and has not raced since early April. This race is a bit of a tough go, after the long lay off. Six furlongs does seem to be his best distance, but he is in a tough spot this week. This colt is another one that must have the lead, or be right there to have a shot and I don’t think he can get there. If he can make the lead he will have a shot.
Expected pace- On or near the lead.
Expected finish- 7th The question is, how will he run after a two month layoff?
PP12 Forest Ambush (KY) 8/1– Lionart- A son of Forest Wildcat is next. His dam is the multiple graded stakes winning Dancing Blade (A-rated Kingmambo x Crusader Sword), and has two wins in eleven starts. And again, we have a horse shortening up after a string of starts at a mile and over. This is this guy’s first start at under a mile since September of last year. He like a bunch of others ran a career best speed figure of 104 which followed a previous best of 97. The drop in distance is the big wildcard for this colt. I have no idea if it is a good thing or a bad thing, and I doubt that Lionart does either. He is another one of the stalkers that will be up near the front, but can lay a bit further off if need be. He does have a graded win, so he belongs, but I just do not think that he is a true sprinter.
Expected pace- Stalker
Expected finish-11th Drop is distance is not going to move this one up. Sure looks like a miler to me.
PP13 De Fu (KY) 10/1–Minnesota– Another scratch bred is next, this one is a son of Dehere out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare with five wins in twelve starts. This guy’s form seems to be lacking a bit at the moment, as he has been beaten 31 lengths in his last two starts. That would be too easy though, he did win a GI three starts back with a 107 at seven furlongs. His last start was with older horses and he was completely out gunned, and we can safely throw that race out. His start two races back is also a throw out, as he simply can not make nine furlongs and that was a Derby Lock race. I think he is going to like the drop in distance, and has enough speed to be in the right place. He generally is a stalker, but can be on the lead, and has won both ways. This horse is much better than his last two races show and could surprise this week.
Expected pace- On or near the lead.
Expected finish- 5th throw the last two races out and look three races back, he has a shot.
PP14 Indy Prospector (FL) 6/1– Mayflowers– Lastly we have a son of Indy King out of the mare Bling Bling (F-rated Broad brush x Mr. Prospector) with six wins in fifteen starts. This guy is another horse that was on the derby trail running at a mile or longer, but is back to sprinting. He has a career best speed figure of 100 (twice), which happened two of the last three races. He is coming off of a short rest of three weeks after a stakes win at six furlongs. This horse is very consistent, but has not shown any huge efforts either. He is a grinder, and that is ok too. He likes to sit in the first group off of the early pace, and that is where he should be this week as well. He has already won two graded stakes, one of which was at six furlongs. He still needs to run a career best race to have a shot, but stranger things have happened.
Expected pace- Stalker
Expected finish- 6th needs a huge effort, but has won big races in the past.