3602.5515 : Doomben Cup Grade I

Can the Puppet dance to the tune?

GENERIC’S BROTHER (IRE) (GENEROUS (IRE) x THEATRICAL (IRE) x GREY DAWN II)

This horse has had a couple of nice stakes wins of late over today’s trip. Well beaten on the off track in grade 3 company two starts back. No real reason to believe anything will change in this race. It would be a major surprise if he was to hit the board here.

ST. AGUR (IRE) (THEATRICAL (IRE) x NIJINSKY II x GROTON)

This horse has a solid profile with a good set of speed figures. He was in very good form towards the end of last year in ungraded stakes races. The wheels have come off the wagon since being aimed at grade 1 company last December. Even though this is a poor race overall for a grade 1 it would be a major shock if this horse could win. Has an outside shot at a top three finish if he handles the off track?

HARRISON’S CLOCKS (DYNAFORMER x SADLER’S WELLS x HABITAT)

A 6yo horse that appears to have his better days behind him. Last win was in a grade 2 over 11 furlongs last autumn. Since then he has struggled in both ungraded and graded races. He was also off the board in his only off track start which is not great news either.

ORIGINAL GANGSTA (KY) (DISTORTED HUMOR x PLEASANT COLONY x LYPHARD)

Bred by Texasace campaigned by Lenny in bid allowance races until his last start. With their records and resources you would have expected that if the horse was a grade 1 animal they would have found it. He appears to be out of his depth here with little or no chance of success.

BOWLED SHANE (IRE) (BAHRI x ZAFONIC x CARR DE NASKRA)

This horse has won his last two allowance races. As this is Australia instead of bowling Shane he needs Shane to bowl at the other runners to have any hope of winning this race. He would be worth a try in an ungraded stakes race though given his last two efforts. Only positive for the horse is a good off track record.

DANCING TENPIN (IRE) (THEATRICAL (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x SEATTLE SLEW)

His last two wins have been in ungraded races which warrant him a shot here. The horse also won a grade 3 last year against other 3yo’s. He has probably taken time to adjust to the higher level of competition of open races. A win and place in only off track starts give owner hope of a good run in this heat. He has realistic chances of making the frame.

BLACK COIN (SADLER’S WELLS x KEY TO THE MINT x ROUND TABLE)

He is a very lightly raced 5yo horse. The least three races he has run have been dire by his own high standards. Has no off track races to gauge his liking of the surface which is another factor. If returning to the form he was showing towards the end of last year beginning of this year would have an outstanding chance. The big question is will he bounce back to form?

HEADLONG (PULPIT x HERBAGER x IN REALITY)

This horse has an impressive win to run ratio for this horse. He has obviously been well campaigned by connections. Very good race to come 2nd in a grade 3 race three runs back. The wheels have come of the since which may have been down to running over 13 furlongs which is to far him. Impressive off track record is an added bonus. If you ignore his last two runs has a reasonable chance of making the frame.

STRONG BELWAS (EMPIRE MAKER x CAERLEON x WOODMAN)

A very good horse who has been second in his last four starts included in a grade 2 over 11 furlongs. Well beaten in the Coxless Stakes last year over this trip. He again is another horse with a strong off track record which can only be of assistance to him. Has good claims but you do wonder if he will find one to good for
Himself yet again! Tough horse that deserves a bit of luck.

SHRIVER MINE (DYNAFORMER x IRISH RIVER (FR) x BLUSHING GROOM (FR))

He is a very well bred horse and lightly raced for his age. Owner seems to have taken time away from the sim. His last three starts have all been good runs at around this trip in graded races, hitting the board three times without looking remotely like winning any of them. I would expect another decent run again but the likelihood of winning is very low.

PUPPET REGIME (KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II x MR. PROSPECTOR)

The winner here a year ago. He was also in outstanding form last year winning four grade 1 races in a row. That takes a lot of doing in the sim. Then beaten in the Coxless Stakes all winning runs have to end followed by a nice confidence boost, which was followed by a poor run over 12 furlongs. He has won since. At the moment you would have to give the horse the benefit of the doubt as he is the obvious class here. As long as he handles the off track has an outstanding chance.

In recap I would expect Puppet Regime to win if handling the surface, with Strong Belwas and Dancing Tenpin having the best chances of filling the frame.