Favorite Looks Good in Bob Barker
Race 15 on this week’s
As can be seen below, winning here does not automatically guarantee future greatness in the breeding shed, but previous winners have gone on to produce some handy offspring. Although a ‘mere’ Grade 3, winning this race will put one of the fillies onto an honor roll containing more than it’s share of class, with two of the previous victors, Livvi’s Lass (2003) and Tired Wings last year, including this event among the contributing runs towards their Eclipse Awards.
Let’s revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of this event:
2000 (ungraded) – Torrid Block – Retired Owner – 1.10.6 – 94 – Retired winner of $219k. Dam of six foals, none of which has as yet justified the expenses involved in using an available-to-all mare
2001 (first G3) – Project Baby – Fairhill – 1.10.0 – 102 – Retired winner of $526k. Dam of four including Burn Project (Burning Roma) a still active five year old stakes winner and stakes placed 4yo, Mountain Project (Mr. Greeley).
2002 – Exbourne’s Freedom – Futurefarm – 1.09.4 – 109 – Retired winner of $559k. Dam of five, featuring Graded placed stakeswinner
2003 – Livvi’s Lass – Phantom – 1.09.6 – 108 – Retired winner of $2.6m. Eclipse Award winner. Dam of three, none of which have lived up to the promise of their four times Grade 1 winning mare, although 3yo Livvi’s Reward (Good Reward) has won three from eight.
2004 – Keys – Email – 1.09.6 – 108 – Retired winner of $997k. Her only foal not inspirational.
2005 – Bourbon Coffee – Blackswan – 1.09.6 – 102 – Retired winner of $547k. Dam of two. First foal Pistol Creek (Touch Gold) a retired stakeswinner .
2006 –
2007 – Tired Wings – Kaif014 – 1.09.2 – 106 – active winner of $2m. Dual Eclipse Award winner.
Historically we see that this race is a genuine test of speed. The winner will almost certainly stop the clock in under 1.10, and only once in the event’s graded history has the winner not returned a triple digit speed rating. The race record stands at 1.09.2, recorded last year when Tired Wings set the mark.
Although the Bob Barker Stakes generally draws a smallish field, there can be no doubting the quality of previous winners, with two of the victors, Livvi’s Lass (2003) and Tired Wings (2007), taking out this event on route to Eclispe Award greatness. This year the lineup outnumbers the most recent renewals.
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s event:
From inside gate comes Wet, an interesting filly, in that she’s progressed recently from being unable to greet the judge in a maiden claim (albeit a $50k mc) to a stakes placed winner of four of her last five races. Clearly needing time to mature, she simply wasn’t this good as a two year old. She started off with promise, running second at each of her first two, before rounding out 2007 with a couple of ordinary efforts. This year has been much more positive, since she her program began with that uninspiring fifth in the maiden claim. From there she’s won a claim and three allowances with an ungraded stakes third sandwiched in the middle. She’s going out at a handy quote this weekend, and probably deservedly so on a couple of fronts. Although she’s won her last two, they were both in four horse fields, and although there are no prizes for winning margins, she’s yet to prove she can run the sort of time likely to be needed in this. Wet is a daughter of Fast Gold, from Brass Purse (Dixieland Band / Broadway Harry), a stakes placed winner of thirteen races, exclusively raced by breeder Kaif. There is lots of early speed in this event, so drawing the inside rail is going to prove an advantage, and connections have secured the services of one of the better jockeys. It’s hard to see her holding off some of her more accomplished opponents in the run home, but she should give a good sight for a long time.
Gate 2 is the starting position for Angra Mainyu, a former claimer who, in four runs since changing stables has proven to be a most astute purchase. Far from ordinary in her early races, not many owners would have risked her for a tag, but her original trainer was prepared to take the risk. Outerbanks was quick to accept the offer, and has proceeded to capitalize on the error, steering the filly to three wins and a second in the ensuing events, and increasing her future stud value with a black type victory at the most recent. Very beautifully bred, she’s the second offspring of Azhi Dahaki (Danzig / Nijinsky), a stakes placed mare who won four from twenty and over $120k. With the highly talented Mr. Greeley as her sire, the decision to risk her so early becomes even more perplexing. But we’re not here to discuss her previous life. The three recent wins have elevated her to a 50% win strike rate, and the black type victory underlines her credentials in lining up against this opposition. On the negative side of the ledger, her speed rating thus far are still a tad shy of the likely benchmark this weekend, and she is facing the biggest field of her career in this higher class challenge. Winning form is good form, however, and although I’m reluctant to put her amongst the very top winning chances, there’s no reason to suggest Angra Mainyu can’t maintain the perfect ITM record she enjoys for her current (and surely permanent) ownership.
From stall 3 jumps Fire West, a useful filly, regularly thereabouts in sprint events. Although she’s yet to register a win in a black type event, she’s gone home empty handed just three times in a career of fourteen runs. Two of those races were routes, where she was clearly unsuited; losing by double figure margins, and the other was against Grade 1 company. That’s looking at her career in its best light. Being more critical, she has a degree of catching up to do when compared with some of her opponents. Her best ever run was a second in an ungraded stake with just six runners. One of her wins was in a claiming race, and two others in low purse restricted allowances. Twice she’s returned speed ratings in the low 90’s, but as a peak in a well established career, it leaves a fair gap to improve this week if she looks to be a contender. Scratchbred, Fire West carries the somewhat uninspiring blood of Fire Slam and Bright Launch in the first two lines, with Gone West adding a touch of class in the third box. Graywolf9 has had a nice run with this filly as she’s banked over $60k, but she’d almost assuredly add substantially to that by dropping back a tad in class.
Silver City Gal lines up in gate 4, as she looks for a return to the form which won her that coveted Grade one victory almost twelve months ago. Towards the end of July 2007, she had become a measuring stick for juvenile fillies, scoring four wins in a row, capped off by the G1-Horsehead Juvenile Fillies. Since then she has failed to salute the judge. In fact, in seven subsequent runs, he hasn’t managed a single podium finish. Breeder / trainer Squity has expended all the options in an attempt to reverse the slump. The grass has been tried, as has a run over a route trip. Both of those experiments resulted in losses by margins exceeding fifteen lengths. In these dirt sprints however, she remains competitive, always finishing within a short distance of the winner. Bred from scratch using the blood of Silver Train / Carson City / Roberto, Silver City Gal has been an unending source of frustration for connections since her stunning career start. A small light at the end of the tunnel may have appeared last time out when, although conclusively beaten once again, she did for the first time since those heady days, record a speed figure exceeding her previous best. We’d need to see a return to at least prize earning efforts before regarding her as a serious threat at this level, but she’s been there once, so she cannot be totally dismissed.
Headlining the early market at 5/2, and drawn in gate 5, we find Stormspector. This versatile filly simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race, having secured a spot on the podium in all seven career starts. She’s run triple digit speed figures at each of her last two, making her recent race times significantly superior to all of this week’s opposition. (There is only one other triple digit rating – exactly 100 – in the form book). When it comes down to class, she ticks the boxes there also, winning the G3-Delpenn Mirrors Keeneland two starts back before running a solid third in the G1-The Cosine Cup at her most recent run four weeks ago. Opposition trainers look to have one straw to clutch, that being the fact that she’s never raced over this short journey. She likes to give a start away and over this sprint trip she’ll need to settle quickly and be ready to unwind her burst a little earlier than normal. Of course, her early patience could well be to her advantage here, as there is likely to be an early charge for the lead, which could well play into the hands of the closers. Stormspector is a scratchbred daughter of Storm Cat / Mr. Prospector / Buckpasser. Owner / trainer Titleist has had a great run thus far with this filly, and it’s not likely to come to an end any day soon. She tops the betting charts for one simple reason. She’s the best performed runner in the race.
Barrier 6 is the starting gate for Storm Forecast, a more than capable dual stakeswinning filly, looking to disprove the theory that she’s just that little bit shy of Graded standard. Spewu has never been afraid of setting this girl a challenge, pitting her against Graded opposition at just her second and third career runs, following an impressive maiden win on debut. She’s mixed her form at the higher level of racing, with graded events comprising half her career of ten starts to date, with a couple of sub par runs coming at this level. Outside Graded racing she boasts a record of three wins, a second and a third from five, but this event is at the higher standard, so we’ll concentrate on analyzing her efforts in that bracket. Her first two graded runs produced a fourth of thirteen and a third of ten, before failing over the route trip in the G1-Frickazee Stakes. Those runs were all from her seven start juvenile year. This year her two graded efforts were tenth in the G2-Yanta Snez and a much better fourth in the G3-Cadoka Stakes, both in fields of fourteen, and both over seven furlongs. The drop back to six furlongs looks to be in her favor. Storm Forecast is a daughter of Vision and Verse from Ginger Liabilty (Two Punch / Irish Castle), a lightly raced winner of one from seven, raced exclusively by this filly’s breeder / trainer. I’d expect her to be vying for the lead and I expect she’ll give a great sight in this is a strong field as she attempts to gain more credibility as a graded performer.
Bo’s bomb alights from barrier 7 and she’s looking to reignite the spark which shone so brightly in the early stages of her racing career. Early racing saw her develop solidly into a stakes winner, following her maiden and two allowance wins from her first five. After that the stakes win came at start number six. Despite always being given handy gaps in her program, a couple of ordinary performances indicated that she’s had enough for a while. Allowed a couple of months off to fully recover, she’s now ready to take part in this at just her third appearance in 2008. Numerically, the third of seven and fifth of thirteen on this year’s scorecard may not look overly impressive, but a bit of further analysis may be worthwhile. Nine weeks off can be a lot in sim terms, but the break added five points to her previous best speed rating, and she was beaten just over two lengths in that return appearance. A further seven weeks between runs added another three points in an effort which saw her come in fifth behind Danetoyou in the G2-Pebbles Flintstone Stakes. Krfarms has given her another six weeks to prepare for this, and the generous spacing of her racing this year may be about to pay dividends. Carrying impeccable blood, the scratchbred daughter of Gulch / Mr. Prospector / Storm Cat should not be underrated. She will not be caught up in the likely early scramble for the front, and I will not be at all surprised to see Bo’s Bomb figuring predominantly in the final stages.
Rank outsider I’Am Busting will depart from barrier 8 in a most ambitious challenge at this early stage of her career. With just three runs under her belt, and her only victory a maiden claimer in the first of those three, it’s not unfair to suggest that the bookmakers are being over appreciative of her real chances by offering just 58/1. An inexpensive scratchbred daughter of Tertullian / Bustino / Al Mufti, her breeder was prepared to risk her for a tag on debut, and Mrv was willing to accept the offer. She won that initial outing, but has managed a fourth of six and a second of five in two allowances since. All runs have been over this surface and distance range, so it’s virtually impossible to see her finding the twenty or so points she needs to add to her speed ratings this weekend. Connections were unable to secure a jockey with current form. She has run reasonable races at the lower level and will repay her costs by returning there for the time being. This week I’Am Busting will be totally outclassed
Gate 9 is the starting position for Ft. Benning, an up and coming last start winner looking to take a significant leap here this weekend. Her three wins and three seconds from nine runs is an impressive score line, but her two most recent outings against black type opposition have resulted in the worst runs of her career. She’s a stakeswinner at two, so she’s proven she can handle the higher class, and her most recent run when she won clocking 1.10.2 shows that she needs only to shave a couple of lengths off her previous best to be able to register a competitive time. Is she up to Graded racing standard, especially in light of her two most recent runs at the ungraded level? Connections obviously think so, or else they wouldn’t be here.
Stays in Vegas, drawn 10, has been racing in great heart and ticks almost all the boxes. Unlike some of the competition this week, she’s yet to win a graded race, but following a solid grounding at the ungraded level, she came within a whisker of achieving that Graded victory last time out when just beaten by Rumbler in the G3-Warfare Farm Stakes in
Seeking The Prince, drawn 11, has a point to prove as she lines up once again to establish herself as a genuine black type performer. Virtually unbeatable at the allowance level, she always manages to run into something just a tad better on the day, when she steps up to the next stage. Twice placed in ungraded stakes races, the worst run of her career came when she was a soundly beaten eleventh in the G3-Cadoka Stakes. This, unfortunately, sums up the career to date, of a filly who otherwise boasts four wins and a second from five races against that lower standard of opposition. That’s looking at her racing life with the glass half empty. Those two stakes thirds, and her most recent impressive allowance win, are the positives as we sort out her chances this week. She was beaten just two lengths or so in each of those ungraded losses, while registering a 97 in her allowance victory seven weeks ago. There are not too many higher numbers on the form page for this race, and although a triple digit speed rating should be needed this week, this filly has shown that she’s not too far away from it. A daughter of Seeking the Gold, she’s based on Stormy U (Storm Cat / Marju) a stakes placed winner of eight races, raced exclusively by this filly’s owner / breeder Princessj. Seeking the Prince will look to settle just off the pace, saving her best for late, and while she still has questions to answer, she’s capable of answering them.
Dehere That alights from the widest gate and enters this event with a 50% win record, increasing speed numbers and established form at this level of racing. Her three year old career consists of two wins and a second from four runs, and while she’s been running around in ungraded events this year, she was more than competitive at the higher level as a juvenile. Her career highlights thus far, both posted last year, are her victory in the G3-Desert Filly Juvenile in Dubai almost twelve months ago, and her third behind Demonic Presence in the G1-World Cup Juvenile Filly Mile last September. After beginning this year with two ungraded wins from three runs, she failed by just a head when beaten by Northern Clipper six weeks ago. They ran 1.10.2 that day, so she probably needs to find a couple of lengths for this, but the way her speed figures are improving indicate that she’s a good chance to do that. A daughter of Dehere, Dehere That is the fourth and most successful offspring of the oddly named Jason and his Car (Forty Niner / Storm Cat), an ‘open to all’ mare who won once from just four runs. Capable of either leading, or seeking a spot just off the frontrunners, trainer / breeder Snappa6 has plenty of flexibility when issuing jockey instructions, and the filly should find herself in a prominent position throughout the race.
Summary and Selections:
There is no such thing as a certainty in racing, and I don’t like tipping favorites. There’s a slight chance that she may run the first bad race of her career, and a slighter chance that the distance may be a tad too short, but when it comes down to basic numbers, she’s the best horse in the race. Stormspector to win.
Patient training in the sim is something of a rarity, and it’s a joy to come across it occasionally. With plenty of space between her races, and with solid improvement each time she ventures to the track, Bo’s Bomb looks to have the most upside and is a top value across the board bet at 9/1. Bo’s Bomb for second
Apart from the favorite, there is only one triple digit speed figure on the form page, and that comes from a filly with an almost 70% win record. If you like her, do not be swayed by the fact that I’ve put her in just third tip, because she’s done all that could be asked to be rated a true winning chance. Stays in Vegas for third.
I’m a little loathe to leave Dehere That out of the selections, as she’s always thereabouts and is racing consistently in black type events. Angra Mainyu is better than her price suggests. Storm Forecast, Ft. Benning and Seeking the Prince all have ability, but all also have questions to answer. All three are capable of running top races without surprising. Silver City Gal was once top class, but it’s been a long dry spell. Fire West appears to lack a little something against the better class opposition (Why do I think I’ll live to regret saying that?). Wet will be in it for a long way while I’Am Busting is flying too high too soon.
The Market:
5/2 – Stormspector
9/2 – Stays in Vegas
7/1 – Storm Forecast
8/1 – Seeking the Prince, Dehere That
9/1 – Fire West, Bo’s Bomb
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Dehere That – 33
Stormspector – 53
Stays in Vegas – 68
Storm Forecast – 69