Sure Will Cap
The Sure Will Cap Grade 3 Stakes drew 12 entrants to the turf track in France. Our fellow Europeans were nice enough to adjust the distance of the race to our measuring method and set it at a mile. I’m glad it was in those confusing kilometers. Anyway, the turf looks to be in excellent condition for the $125,000 (American money) that is on the line.
1. Babes In Toyland 10-1
Babes In Toyland is likely to be the speed rabbit in the race. She made her debut in stake racing in her last, finishing forth and was easily overtaken around the 3/4 pole. She set a career speed record of 107 in the 8f race. She has the ability to run away with this one.
2. Nook Queen 6-1
Nook has an impressive record of 16-11-0-1. She had a 7-race win streak that ran from last August through December before she ran two very disappointing races in speeds below the 100-level. Nook has returned to her winning ways, winning her last at 8f, going in a speed of 107. During her win streak, she didn’t put in a speed below 103. She is a late closing horse who has an opportunity to take another.
3. Urban Quest 8-1
Urban will break the million dollar in earnings if she can finish in one of the top two spots. She usually runs just behind the leaders and has been rather consistant hitting the board in all her races since December. A personal speed mark of 108 was established in her last outing going 8f. I don’t think she will win (as she has only one victory in last 14), but she has been stable enough lately that she may walk away with a pay check.
4. Theory of Love 7-1
Theory of Love has run her last 8 races on the turf with mixed results. In those races, she has a record of 3-1-0 in speeds ranging from 96 to 109. Two of those were at 9f where she finished off the board. The mile distance fits her best and she should put in a decent run in this race.
5. A P Infinity 12-1
AP Infinity has been on the board in 11 of her 15 career turf starts. She has been racing at a variety of distances and returns to 8f where she has seen the winners circle in 3 of her 4 starts at this distance. She set a career mark of 108 three back going the mile. Although she hits the tote board with regular consistancy, she has broken the 100-speed level only twice. There are plenty of others that excel over the 100-level with regular frequency, which is needed to win this race….look elsewhere.
6. Alphagetti 99-1
Alphagetti has a lot working against her. First, she’s only won 2 races in 41 starts. Second, she gets Jockey Grider who has had similar success this year (2 wins in 42 starts). Third, she rarely breaks the 80-speed level. Forth, she’s had 2 starts in stake races (non-graded) finishing a good distance back in both. Not a formula for success in this one.
7. Wassie’s Star G 4-1
Wassie has won 10 of 15 starts on the grass, and hit the board in 13 of those starts. She is ranked 13th amongst simster turf classic racers. Wassie should be considered in this race as she has won 6 of her last 7 races at the mile distance, all with speeds exceeding the 100 speed level. She charges hard as a late closer and has the class to walk away with another win.
8. Dangerpoint 10-1
Dangerpoint likes to run on the turf as is reflected in her 13-5-2-3 record. She is jumping up to the graded stakes from the moderate allowance level. She comes in with a 2-win race streak on the line, posting speeds of 104 and 105 going 8 and 8.5 furlongs. She’ll need to be at her very best to take this.
9. Point Out 10-1
Point Out has been a bit dull lately. She has hit the board once in her last 6 races. She seems to prefer the sprints over the routes. Her record on the route is 13-2-1-0. She is capable of popping out a speed over 100, but her recent form is concerning, especially in the graded stakes level. I’d take a pass here.
10. High Zafonic 21-1
High Zafonic is making a class jump from allowance to the graded stakes level, making this race her debute into the stakes class. This filly has cracked the 100-level in 2 of her 3 last races. She will more than likely run on the front end, perhaps second or third and will need to dig deep to beat her competition. She drew jockey Rice who is winless in 2008 and will not enhance her chances.
11. Alberta Fire 9-2
Alberta saw her 7-race win streak come to an end in her last race. She does have an excuse as the race was run on a poor off-track, however, she usually does well on the wet surface. Alberta has won 15 of her 26 starts, however has never won a route. She is being bumped into a route for the first time since 2005. She has only raced 3 times going the longer distance and hit the board each time. I don’t think the added distance will be a problem for her. Since November, she’s been running speeds of 105 and up and she will be a threat to contend with.
12. Pressure Drop 7-1
Pressure Drop usually runs close behind the leaders and should have no problem doing so in this race. She has broken the 100-speed level in 8 of her last 9 events. She has struggled against graded company hitting the board once in six starts. She will be pressed to get the job done here.
A pretty tough field to handicap, but I think Albert Fire can return to the winner’s circle in this one. She draws jockey Wilkinsonboro (20% win) and has consistantly put in strong race speeds. She should be able to handle the route. Nook Queen looks like she may have returned back to form after having two poor races. There is some value here and she can come in at a good price. Wassie’s Star is highly effective late closer and can easily find her way to the winner’s circle in a field with several horses have a shot. She gets top jockey Stivers (28% win).