GI Rising Sun Spring Cup
PP1- Lookofeaglesmyarse (KY)- 11/1– Baracoon brings us a four year old son of Forestry out of a Kris. S mare that has five wins in eighteen career starts. This will be his first crack at a graded stakes race, with one stakes win to his credit which was last week. He has yet to win on an off track which is another strike against him this week. He ran a career best speed figure of 112 last week at 6.5 furlongs, and will need at least that same effort this week to have a shot. All of his wins have come from distances less than seven furlongs, but the distance should not play a factor, he can make seven. With a pretty hot pace expected I would expect this guy to be mid pack, about five to seven off the lead. While I certainly see an upwards trend with speed figures I just don’t think he is going to move forward off of that last monster race he ran against a very tough competition. This is a very nice horse on the improve that will be better by fall, but not quite ready for this huge jump in class this week.
Predicted speed positioning- Mid pack/ deep closer
Predicted Finish- 8th– Will probably bounce this week, but looks like a future star. Too much to chew on this week.
PP2- Nine Under- 18/1– Megaman42– Next up in the number two hole we have a graded stakes winning six year old son of Pulpit out of the He-mare Daniner (C-rated Forty Niner). His fist and only stakes win came back in August of 2006, but has had flashes of brilliance since with one stakes win. For the most part however his 40 starts have taken their toll, and he has not been real competitive since last fall. He does have a career best speed figure of 113 which gives him a shot at a win, but efforts like that have become few and far between. The two races he has run on off turf tracks show that he can handle an off track, but it will not move him up any as he is far from an off track specialist. His form is rather poor at the moment with two sub 100 speed figures in his last two outings. If the speed duel up front gets out of hand he could pass some tired horses down the stretch for a small check, but he is really up against it. If his performances don’t improve I would think that the dreaded he-mare procedure is not far off.
Predicted speed positioning- Mid pack/ deep closer
Predicted Finish- 12– Once upon a time this horse could be a factor, but those days are past.
PP3- Flushing Waters (IRE)- 10/1– Pm ships this guy in from Kiwi land. In the three hole we have a five year old son of High Chaparral out of the mare Violet Sanford (IRE) (D-rated Monahee Mountain). He has six wins in 24 starts, two which are stakes wins. His last race looks like it is a throw out with a speed figure of 87, but more importantly was the back to back 111’s he threw the previous two races. While he has yet to claim victory in a graded stakes he has been right there with multiple second and third place finishes. I am assuming the last allowance race was a tune-up which preps this guy perfect for this race. He should be well rested with six weeks since his last start. He is generally a flexible horse that can be up close or sit farther back and close which will serve him well this week. Most weeks I would think that this might be the favorite and pick him for the win, but the field in this race is just sick so I can’t, but he can get a check and a win would not be shocking at all. 10/1 is giving some good value here.
Predicted speed positioning- Stalker/ midpack
Predicted Finish- 5th– A huge effort could put him in the winner’s circle, a horse that is just reaching his prime.
PP4- R Loyal Man (KY)- 14/1– Kbsweet– Next we have a horse built to fly on the turf. He is a four year old son of Mr. Greeley out of the dam Streets of Heaven (G-rated Lil’s Lad) with five wins in 23 starts. His only stakes win happens to be a graded stake race as a three year old last November, and has struggled mightily since he began racing with older horses. The off track and distance suit him fine, but needs to step his game up big time to have a shot with older horses this week. In his graded win he fired a 114, but has yet to come close to that before or after that race. Expect to see him on the lead or trying to get it, but may lack the blazing speed to get to the lead with this group. Against a softer field this horse could be there, but he is yet to fire since turning four, and his recent form is not going to get it done.
Predicted speed positioning- On the lead/ stalker (one of the speed horses)
Predicted Finish- 9– Third start in a row on an off track will not be a charm. Career best would be enough, but recent form says no to that happening.
PP5- Sands Point- 12/1- Saga28 brings his six year old son of War Chant out of a El Gran Senor mare half way around the world from England to battle this week. He has nine wins in 23 career starts with three stakes wins, one of which was a graded stakes way back as a two year old. While he has spent much of the middle of his career mired in mediocrity he has been of fire as of late with career best 111 and 114 speed figures in his last two races. Not sure how a horse does not get it until six, but that is exactly what has happened here. One of the races deep closers, he will be flying late, but may be too far back to get there by the wire. Seven furlongs is by far is best distance, and is outstanding on an off track, never being out of the money. 12/1 gives some real value in this race as this guy has never been better in his life than he is right at this moment.
Predicted speed positioning- Deep closer, will not be close early
Predicted Finish- 3rd– Can be better if he stays in it early. Win would not be surprising.
PP6- Seekin Destroy- 6/1– Super4 ships in his beast, a five year old son of Mineshaft out of the mare Your Hill (F-rated Danehill) with 13 wins in 32 starts. Of those 13 wins, two are GI and has an incredible record of 15-11-1-0 at seven furlongs with both GI at that distance. If ever there was a seven furlong specialist, this is the guy. He is by far the most flexible with the ability to lead, stalk or close which always sets a horse up well, he has won doing all three. Three of his last four races have been 110+ speed figure efforts which show that as good as he has been in the past he is even better right now. This is the number two ranked turf sprinter for a reason; he is just that good at what he does.
Predicted speed positioning-Mid pack, stalker, deep closer- very flexible, tactical speed to be placed anywhere.
Predicted Finish- 1st– No way I am picking against this horse, he is a monster.
PP7- Libertine (IRE)- 7/1– Super14– In the seven hole we have a five year old son of El Prado (IRE) out of the he-mare Storm Slithering (C-rated A. P. Indy) with eight wins in 31 starts. Of those eight wins, two are stakes wins with no graded wins as of yet. He is in excellent form in recent races with duel career best speed figures of 111 in his last two races, but both were at 6.5 furlongs. This guy is equally adept at distances from 6.5 furlongs to one mile, so the seven furlongs is not an issue. Generally a closer, but can be up close if there is not a lot of speed. A=Early in his career he was usually out front but fading down the stretch, but since he has changed to a closer his results have improved significantly. While his form is very good right now, he would need a third career best speed figure in the last three races, and that is just not going to happen. Very nice horse, but not this week.
Predicted speed positioning- Mid pack, only stalks when no speed present
Predicted Finish- 6th– Should be moving late, but strong field will be too much.
PP8- Fantastic Kris- 11/1– 3rdtry must be someone who like to play in the mud as a youth since he seems to find an off track with uncanny consistency. In thirty seven career starts, 14 have been on an off track with nine wins of his 13 total were on an off track. Fantastic Kris is a six year old son of Fantastic Light out of a Flag Down mare. While all of this looks impressive the trouble lies in that he has only one win in five tries at seven furlongs, the win being in a restricted allowance race. In his four tries at graded competition he has a fourth place as his best finish, never really having a chance to win in any of them. Almost exclusively a stalker, he should be pretty close early, and if he does not get near the lead early it is over for him. His career best 112 speed figure came on an off track (imagine that) at 6.5 furlongs. An effort similar to this would be enough, but has not shown that kind of form at seven furlongs yet in his career.
Predicted speed positioning-Stalker
Predicted Finish- 13th– Very nasty field this week at a distance he does not care for. He does like off tracks, a surprise effort could happen.
PP9- Mr. Inconspicuous (KY)- 5/1– Foxon4 brings us a four year old son of Aptitude out of the mare Bring Me Joy (C-rated Forty Niner) with nine wins in 26 trips to the starting gate. He has four stakes wins with no graded stakes victories as of yet, but hat could change. His last four races have seen his four best career speed figures, with a top speed of 114 in his last race four weeks ago. This horse has raced in a ton of owner restricted races so some of his wins can be dismissed, but his recent form can not. His career best 114 did come on an off track, but was at a mile not seven furlongs. His best speed figure at seven furlongs is 105 which show that he is more of a miler than long sprinter, but is still very good at that. With his recent form I would like to pick this guy, but there is a good chance of a bounce this week and this is not his best distance by a long way, so I must look elsewhere.
Predicted speed positioning- On the lead/ stalker
Predicted Finish- 4th– To good to not pick up a check, but not his best distance, this guy is a miler.
PP10- Captain Amazing (KY)- 12/1– Wemblem- In the ten hole we have next a four year old son of Rock Hard Ten (How the hell this name ever got past the jockey guild is beyond me) out of the mare Agent Scully (F-rated Storm Cat) with six wins in only 17 starts. Back in march this guy busted out a career best 110 while winning the GIII Mr. Anderson Special on an off track at seven furlongs…Hummmm intriguing. Another one of the deep closers he should be moving at the end, but I don’t think he quite gets there. This is a really strong field, even better than the deep field he bested two races ago. This is a very lightly raced colt that is not anywhere as good as he is going to get, and I would expect big things this fall, but not this week. Definitely an improving horse, but better things will be coming in the future.
Predicted speed positioning-Deep closer
Predicted Finish- 7th– While I don’t like this guy this week, I love the potential he is starting to show and could make me look foolish by winning.
PP11- Bulgaria- 19/1- Exit12farm brings his grizzled veteran of 46 starts with ten wins to Japan with only two stakes wins and no graded wins. Bulgaria is a six year old out of Cape Canaveral out of the mare More Steer (G-rated Storm Cat). He has spent the majority of his career running on the dirt, switching to turf full time only about a year ago. Throughout his career consistency has been a major issue with speed figures all over the place. His career best speed figure is 106 (twice), and that is not going to be enough. Generally a front runner, he has only won twice from the lead and is much better from a stalking position as he has a tendency to fade late from out front. The only shot he has is to sit off the lead, he has zero shot of wiring this field, and would be suicide to try. Some of his better efforts have been on an off track, but has yet to win on an off track in four tries.
Predicted speed positioning- On the lead or very close to it.
Predicted Finish- 14th– Will be up front early, but fading badly down the stretch. His best years were spent on the wrong surface, and those years can’t be replaced.
PP12- Vindiana Jones- 10/1– Peeps6 shows up with another six year old, this being of the flavor Vindication out of the mare Smoke Lynn (F-rated Gone West) with eight wins in 46 starts. He has two stakes wins one of which was a GII, but those were both on dirt. This is another guy that spent the first 2/3 of his career on dirt before moving onto the turf permanently. His career best speed figure of 110 did come only two races ago in March, but that seems to be an anomaly amongst mostly low to mid 100 speed figures. Generally shows a lot of early speed, being on the lead or very near it, but may have some difficulty pulling that off this week. Has been very good at distances up to nine furlongs, so he is one of the more stamina based runners this week, but seems to lack the pure class of many horses this week.
Predicted speed positioning- On the lead/ stalker
Predicted Finish- 8th– better on turf than dirt, but left his best races in the past. Only a career best effort will give him a shot.
PP13- Lowlands Lahti (IRE)- 13/1– Gonads brings in a six year old son of Barathea (IRE) out of the mare Over Between Dance (G-rated Zafonic) with nine wins in 33 starts. This guy was running in an upper level claim just last November and has made Gonads look pretty smart for the claim since. He picked up his first stakes win just this last march and his one attempt at graded company did not end well, but that was at nine furlongs. Another horse that will be on the lead or very near to it. His career best speed figure of 107 came in January, but that will most likely not be enough this week. This is a very nice horse but is most likely in over his head this week and would need to drop back down to listed stakes races to be more competitive. But heck, no harm in taking a shot here and try to catch some lightning. He does appear to be one of those horses that really likes 7.5 furlongs as most of his best efforts have come at that distance.
Predicted speed positioning-On the lead
Predicted Finish- 11th– Too much this week. Has been at the top of his game as of late, but hat is not enough with this group.
PP14- Samurai Mike (CA)- 10/1– Rohirrim– Lastly we have a four year colt out of Singletary out of the mare Dixie Dance Off (G-rated Danehill) with nine wins in only 19 starts. He does have two stakes wins, but no graded stakes victories. This is a guy that is starting to peak. Two races ago he threw a 114 speed figure at seven furlongs, and the upward trend of speed figures is very apparent in the last ten months. At 10/1 there is some real value here, as he could post a pretty big upset. One of the closers he can sit mid pack or come from the clouds, but seems to be set up best with a super hot pace which I would expect this week. Since he is lightly raced he still has some huge upside and we have most likely not seen him do his best work. The one thing I would caution is his lack of a record on an off track. There is nothing to go on as this is his first start with an off track, but assuming he handles it well, he has a shot this week.
Predicted speed positioning- Deep closer
Predicted Finish- 2nd– Upset special. If you don’t like chalk…like this guy.