Caribbean Stakes GI Should be a Battle!
The Caribbean Stakes
Grade I
A mile and three eighths on the Firm Turf Course
$500,000
All Horses, 3 years old
Stakes record – Initial Running
I absolutely love to watch these young three year old turfers moving to the longer distances. It is such a specialized group that is successful that it takes a really special horse to get there. We look to have some wonderful candidate for success here including a couple of fillies. The weather looks warm and dry here in Florida for the weekend and the horse look young and energetic. There is really no standout horse in this race so it should be a blast down the stretch. I can hardly wait, so let’s take a look:
1 – NATALMAN(ENG) ODDS STABLE WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK 12/1 Rohirrim 14.6% L.Buchta 283 – 44 – 32 – 42 – 16% 95.22 $101,674 61
(CACIQUE (IRE) x LAMMTARRA x THE MINSTREL out of RESOVOIR DOG) After giving a Grade I on dirt a try with rather disastrous results last time out, this colt is back on the dirt where he seems to thrive having never finished off of the board in eight races including four Stakes attempts. Trainer Rohirrim is looking for a big jump here and the trip on the dirt may help in that regard. He has the speed but needs to get that extra gear in the stretch that sometimes comes with maturity. This is one of a coupled entry from Galileo Stables and they have chosen jockey Buchta who is one of the best for the race. The GR Simsters Rez will be rooting for this member.
| 2 – PACIFIC WEST(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | Stupor1 | 28.4% | M.Wright | 57 – 5 – 7 – 7 – 9% | 96.04 | $89,845 | 45 |
(GONE WEST x NORTHERN DANCER x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) This nicely bred filly is taking on the boys here and after her last race where she ran a quick 96 SPF in the ROUTE SITY SIX Stakes where she finished second she looks like she can compete. Trainer Stupor1 who is racing under the auspices of Lenny’s Evil Empire Stables which has three horses in the race has brought this filly along slowly which is a hallmark of Lenny’s Stables. She has only run one Stakes and this will be her first Graded outing. She has the capable hands of jockey Wright on the reins and her front running style may be tough from this post position so watch this girl.
| 3 – BENEDICTION(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | TheThumb2 | 20.9% | C.Stubbs | 59 – 5 – 5 – 6 – 8% | 94.76 | $86,325 | 84 |
(SADLER’S WELLS x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II) This beautifully pedigreed colt has finished either first or second in every race to date. His last race when he took a jump in distance from 9 to 11.5F he also had a big jump in SPF to 94. He seems to prefer the distance and Lenny’s Evil Empire Stables along with trainer TheThumb2 like to see that in a young colt. This will be his first Graded race and only second stakes race but he has plenty of experience with seven races. Jockey Stubbs is in the leather and has been struggling a bit this year but should be capable enough to at least hang on if this colt spits out a big race. I think that he might have one waiting in him for this weekend.
| 4 – SPARTIATE(ENG) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/1 | Wicked | 11.0% | E.Crumrie | 29 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 3% | 101.15 | $ 686,375 | 18 |
( PIVOTAL(GB) x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x CAERLEON out of YTWODUBAI) Our Morning Line favorite is a multiple Graded Stakes winner including the GI Epiphany Handicap. All of those three Graded wins were last year as a two year old. He has run in three straight GIs this year with no worse than a fifth and has one of the only triple digit SPFs in the race. He still looks like the class of the field but some of these youngsters that look like they are still on the way up could catch him in a hurry. Jockey Crumrie is looking for only his second win of the season and that has to make trainer Wicked and the Daninja Stables a bit worried as well.
| 5 – VERY FAT DRAGON(AUS) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/1 | Latte | 26.4% | O.Barrett | 127 – 10 – 13 – 11 – 8% | 94.73 | $ 58,440 | 63 |
( ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x CAERLEON x LEAR FAN) This is a big brown colt but I must admit looking at him doesn’t remind of anything like his namesake, LOL. He has nice lines in his pedigree looking to be willing to go the distance and I’m a big ENCOSTA DE LAGO fan. Trainer Latte and the Toplight Stables must be scratching their heads with this colt as he is a bouncer in every sense of the word. He builds up to a great race then seems to bounce back a step. His last two were the best two in a row and I think he likes this distance. He has Barrett up in the saddle and he has been bouncing a bit himself, hopefully this will be a big race for all involved.
| 6 – PURE OIL(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36/1 | TyeDye | 14.3% | F.Lincoln | 102 – 2 – 8 – 10 – 2% | 95.36 | $109,335 | 415 |
( MORE THAN READY x GRAND SLAM x SKY CLASSIC) The last time this TyeDye trained member of the Big Oil Conglomerate Stables had a bad race with a bad layoff after, he came back with one of his best performances. His team is hoping for more of the same here as he ran badly in the THEREGOESMYHERO GIII last time out and has been back in the stall for over two months. Whether he is ready for this without a prep remains to be seen. In addition, jockey Lincoln appears to need a big layoff himself as he has been nothing less than terrible this year. All in all, there are more questions than answers for this group and a big race here would provide the answers.
| 7 – CRIMSON WELLS(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | JockeyMax | 23.2% | D.Ellard | 45 – 5 – 1 – 6 – 11% | 96.76 | $131,870 | 120 |
( SADLER’S WELLS x KINGMAMBO x DEPUTY MINISTER out of CRIMSON PIRATES) Before his last outing, this beautifully bred chestnut colt had quite a run of nice races going. That last race was a big step back though and trainer JockeyMax must be wondering if it was a bounce or if the big horse just didn’t like the extra distance. This race should answer that to a large degree and jockey Ellard who has ten years experience in the saddle should be able to get everything out of this big guy if he is willing. The JockeyMax Stables are members of the GR Simsters Rez and you can bet there are plenty of discussions about this talented colt back at the rez. We will see if he likes the extra real estate.
| 8 – FRANKLIN TERRACE(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | StormCat55 | 22.5% | R.Maire | 182 – 14 – 20 – 18 – 8% | 97.68 | $ 203,775 | 138 |
( MONTJEU (IRE) x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SAINT BALLADO out of RAINAH) This colt is another that flourished as a two year old but has pretty much floundered in his three year old campaign. His last win was in December and trainer StormCat55 has been trying different things to get him going. Last time out he ran his first race, he’s tried an off track and this will be his longest race to date. He is running under the colors of the Foxon Stables and they certainly know what to do with a young horse. Jockey Maire is in the irons and he’s been a bit off this year as well. If the colt takes to the distance, he could be trouble for the field. If not, it is more problems for poor trainer StormCat55.
| 9 – PUTNEY QUEST(ENG) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Pigeon17 | 15.8% | W.Marshall | 35 – 2 – 2 – 2 – 6% | 91.01 | $ 31,700 | N/A |
( RAINBOW QUEST x ALDEBARAN x STORM CAT out of CAN’T CATCH ME) A lightly raced three year old with only six races under his belt, this big brown is the first offspring of broodmare CAN’T CATCH ME who was a Stakes winning sprinter. That leads you to wonder about the distance for this colt. Although he won his last race at 10f, it was against a short field and with only an 86 SPF. He likes to stay near the front and jockey Marshall will have to make a decision on that from this far out. Trainer Pigeon17 and the Wests Tigers Stables are hoping that the extra distance will do the colt good and he will be ready to roll.
| 10 – SYMBOLIC(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | Simsters5 | 17.2% | N.Torres | 55 – 4 – 3 – 5 – 7% | 95.86 | $ 98,694 | 77 |
( DYNAFORMER x DANEHILL x IRISH RIVER(FR)) In ten races, this bred for Turf colt has never finished off of the board and just missed her first Stakes win in her last two races with second place finishes. Trainer Simsters5 is working this colt and he is the third entry in the race for the Evil Empire Stables of Lenny. Like most of the Evil Empire colts, this guy has been slowly stretched out and moved up in class and looks poised for a big race. They have Torres in the leather and he needs to be poised for a big race as he has been disappointing as a rider this year. The fact that this horse likes to stalk the leaders may benefit him in this race and he could be trouble for the contenders.
| 11 – MOON OF QUEENSLAND(JPN) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35/1 | GrayWolf5 | 11.2% | L.Lamb | 43 – 3 – 2 – 2 – 7% | 84.12 | $ 71,743 | 271 |
( MOON BALLAD (IRE) x STRAVINSKY x LEO CASTELLI out of WOLF OF QUEENSLAND) It’s hard to get a handle on this chestnut colt as his last eight races have included four on both dirt and turf, two on off tracks and at five different distances. Trainer GrayWolf5 of the Wolf’s Den Stables may have it all under control but it sure is hard to handicap. This colt hasn’t had a winner in over a year and with lackluster jockey Lamb holding the reins it is hard to imagine one coming here but he definitely shows talent, if they can just get it to show.
| 12 – SOUTH OF HEAVEN(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | FastVett1 | 11.7% | L.Buchta | 283 – 44 – 32 – 42 – 16% | 103.23 | $ 101,674 | 61 |
( CACIQUE (IRE) x LAMMTARRA x THE MINSTREL out of BRINDISI) I love the name of this big brown filly and I love her racing talent as well. If you throw out her last race in the Sydney Derby that was on a nasty wet track, she had two nice wins in a row including the GI HOW ARE YOU GENTLEMAN CUP against the girls. She had a sizzling 103 SPF in that one and that kind of effort would definitely put you in the mix here. The only problem is that was at 8.5f and I’m not sure that she is going to like this extra distance. Trainer FastVett1 of the QuikVett Stables is hoping that her speed translates well at this distance. Jockey L.Buchta is one of the best at the track and will have to pace this filly against the boys.
| 13 – DYNOBLE(DUB) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | Tesio | 21.0% | P.McJulien | 48 – 7 – 4 – 3 – 15% | 95.24 | $124,705 | 45 |
(DYNEVER x SILVER GHOST x PLEASANT COLONY out of GHOST COLONY) Two back this beautiful cream colored colt won the NINJA REVOLUTION Hdcp at this distance from 16 lengths back at the half. He finished fifth on a yielding track last time out in a GI but looks like he could be tough here if jockey McJulien and his more than capable hands on the reins can give him a good trip. Trainer Tesio is saddling the second colt in this race running under the colors of the Galileo Stables and he has to be excited about the prospects of this colt on long turf outings. This could very well be his breakout race if he can just bump that SPF up a little. I think he can do it.
| 14 – SILENT AJDAL(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Racer | 14.0% | R.Jones | 48 – 5 – 7 – 2 – 10% | 95.82 | $ 108,810 | 154 |
(SHARP HUMOR x GENTLEMEN(ARG) x AJDALout of SILENT BANJO) After moving to the Tees Stables at the beginning of this year and working under the hands of trainer Racer, this colt has really increased his SPFs and has finished in the money in three straight Stakes outings. He has become more of a front runner during that transition and this post may hinder him here although jockey Jones should be able to pace him from the outside. I’m not sure that this colt is ready for this level but he looks to certainly be headed in the right direction down the road.
Morning Line = 4-12-10-14
Paz Picks = 2-3-4-13 ???
When one of my horses is written up in the BTB I ALWAYS look to see how the writer has handicapped the race and who they pick to be the winner. For that reason, I try to make sure that I always choose my winners as well. Every once in a great while, especially with these youngsters, no matter how hard I look I just can’t pick a definite winner. That is the case here. I really like a bunch of horses in this race and there are several that have question marks that may preclude them from winning at this distance. There are four that I like just a bit more than the others for differing reasons and yet I have questions about each of them as well. With that in mind I am going to group my top four picks and you can use them in an trifecta box or a couple of exactas. I like DYNOBLE , PACIFIC WEST , BENEDICTION and SPARTIATE in no particular order. I think these four have the best chances to produce a winner although there are others that could definitely squeeze in there too. It should be a great race and I can hardly wait to see it!
Good luck to all runners!
Email your comments to pazjazz.btb@gmail.comI love to hear from you!
