Gary Carter Handicap
The Gary Carter Handicap, (Gary Carter was perhaps the best NY Mets Catcher they’ve had) is set to run this weekend, right here in New York (how ironic). The oddsmakers have set Ketch as the favorite, but at odds of 6-1, signaling that this may be a race that is up for grabs. The Grade I race has an impressive $500,000 purse up for grabs and set to run a distance of 7 furlongs on a dirt track.
1. Ketch 6-1
Ketch is prepared to break the million dollar level in earnings for trainer Bigskyfarm. Ketch also has an 11 race streak of speeds exceeding 100 and has won 6 of these events (all stake races). Ketch likes to round up the field with an agressive late move and is coming off a gallant 2 length victory in a grade I event going 7f in a speed rated 113. This victory was here in NY, so he does not show any difference to the track surface. He has had some recent races where he has run into traffic problems, impeding his chances to win. If he can avoid the traffic problems, he will be dangerous.
2. Kitty Heaven 13-1
Trainer Onemore bumps Kitty Heaven into the graded company off of a sound third in her last, going 6f on an off track. Kitty put up a speed of 110 in the event and has surpassed the 100 barrier in 8 of his last 9 races (mixture of stakes and allowance races). This will be his second try with the graded class with his first effort not bearing any fruit. He maybe at a class disadvantage here.
3. Old Sukhotai 9-1
Old Sukhotai set a career speed mark of 112 in his last start (allowance race) winning by a length for trainer Blueriband. This ended a 3-race streak of coming up short and finishing second. Old’s history is similar to Kitty Heaven, breaking the 100 speed mark in 7 of his last 8 races (also a mix of stakes and allowance races). This is also his second attempt against the graded class. Old is very consistant however, hitting the board 15 of 16 sprint races, with 7 wins. He’s capable despite the lack of graded race experience.
4. Moneygrowsontrees 11-1
Money is coming off a poor outing, finishing 11th in a Grade 1 event, which was won by Ketch. Money did place in the previous race for trainer Cheadle in a career best of 114, closing strongly. Money does have a checkered past in graded races, hitting the board half the time in roughly 19 tries. He did win on this NY track back in ’06, perhaps his last race was a fluke?
5. In A Simple Rhyme 7-1
In A Simple Rhyme matched his career best of 114 in his last, winning by a mere nose going 6f (a grade I event). Simple has also won 11 of 26 sprint starts and trainer Zewango4 has him well trained to make that late move. Since Jan, ’07, Simple has failed to break a rated speed of 100 only twice. He has won 3 of his last 6 graded outings and should be a contender. There are quite a few late closers in this event, so he’ll have to avoid traffic problems.
6. Death Alley Driver 10-1
Death set a career mark of 116 back in December, but has come up short in his last two outings for trainer Sdmf5. Death has consistantly surpassed that 100-speed ranking threshold since August ’06, rarely dropping below the mark. He’s another one that likes to move from behind. He doesn’t win much (6 of 31), but, does favor this track. In 4 races, he has 2 wins, a show and a forth. This may be a hidden ace in his deck.
7. Pro History’s Call 27-1
Trainer Capsized may have the horse who sets the pace entered here. The field desperately lacks early speed, and this youngster may be the one to set the pace. Pro has won 3 of last 4, all over 100 (2 at his career mark of 108). He has won 6 of 13 races and has one graded race appearance where he finished 3rd. He appears to be at a class disadvantage in this field. I believe this horse has a bright future ahead of him.
8. Angel in Hell 9-1
Angel makes his career debut in a graded stakes race. Trainer Sheen moved Angel into the stakes level back in December where he responded with two places and a show in five races. Each of those races were rated at 105 or better. Angel is yet another one who likes to make a late move. Although making his maiden voyage in the graded company, I don’t think you can discount this horse. If he’s at his best, he can take this.
9. Wonderboy DJ 8-1
Wonderboy has been running in graded company for trainer Wonder2 for what seems to be an eternity. He hasn’t put in a race with a speed below 100 since the early part of 2006. Wonderboy traditionally runs in the middle of the field and glides himself into contention late in the race. In his last 10 outings, he has a record of 1-1-3. His last win was back in Jan. 2007 and he hasn’t shown a lot of vigor to close hard lately. He may get a piece of the pie, but I don’t think he’ll get the tour of the winner’s circle.
10. One Wild Cat 10-1
One Wild Cat is the second half of an entry for trainer Sdmf5. Wild Cat has struggled with the graded stakes recently. In his last 5 starts, 3 have been in the graded level, and Wild Cat hasn’t finished better than 9th. The other two races were stakes races where Wild Cat put in nice 2nd place finishes in each, with speeds of 113. He’s tough to figure here, as he is capable of winning graded events. His history shows two tries over this track, both of them with poor results. Based on this and his recent graded race form, I would take a pass.
11. Broadway Storm 11-1
Broadway Storm is just that…a Storm. Broadway makes thunderous late charges. In his last, he came from 7 back at the 3/4 pole to win by a head in a speed of 110 going 7.5f. Storm has rarely decended below the 100 speed level since March of 2007. Trainer Wistful2 has seen his horse strike the board in 13 of 16 sprints. Most of the late closers in this race start their moves earlier than Broadway does. This may be beneficial as he can then pick his way through horses. He should have an interesting race…consider.
12. A B Fab 10-1
A B Fab has been in a bit of glut. Trainer Dolphinman has seen his horse hit the board once in his last six efforts all graded events. Back in May, 2007, Fab suffered a minor injury, but has shown respectful 100+ speeds since this event. His last victory was on this track, last year, in this very stakes race. He has won his only two races on this track surface. He does like to come from off the pace. The big question, is he ready to strike?
13. By Any Other Name 18-1
By Any Other Name will probably be running near the front end early on for trainer Megaman42. This horse has recently been moved up to stakes competition and is making his third start. His prior two races were both third place finishes with one being in a graded event. He has won 4 of his 20 starts and is showing improved form, breaking the 100 level for the first time back in December and popping a career best of 112 recently. This field is loaded with horses with more experience in the graded stakes and I think that this works against him.
14. Antique Gold 17-1
Antique Gold is the only other horse I see in this field who may set the pace, or battle Pro History’s Call for that honor. Antique got beat by Ketch in his last outing, setting the early pace, before tiring badly back into 10th. He has a career record of 12-4-5-0 and has put in a recent career best of 110. He’s able to go gate-to-wire, but will need his best not to get run down by a field loaded with late runners.
This event is pretty much up for grabs as a significant number of these entrants like to charge hard and late.
Ketch has beaten a few of these already and recently put in a trip rated at 120. He is currently ranked #2 in Dirt Sprints amongst simsters and a victory here could move him up to the top spot. My second choice is to Broadway Storm. He has a very impressive and agressive late kick. My third pick is with last years winner A B Fab. His recent form has been shakey however he does perform well at this track and seeks his second Gary Carter Handicap trophy. That alone should spark him to fly.