Bluegrass Oaks: Posts 11-15
A funny thing happened on the way to sign up for this race. The top twenty were locked to get in this most prestigious race, yet any filly rated in the top 64 could have made the field. Posts 11 through 15 have no fillies that drew in without merit. In fact at least three of these five deserve very strong consideration for savvy bettors.
Drawing post positions 11 though 15 in the Bluegrass Oaks:
PP 11 SILENT SCREEM(KY) (KINGMAMBO x
She enters with a record of four wins in six starts. Each race has been a step up in class, at gradually increasing distances and with ever growing speed figures.
Racing History:
1. She won her debut as the favorite in a 14-filly field. Four others from that race have gone on to win
2. Closed late, but could not quite catch a future SP filly in a N2L allowance.
3. Made amends for her last race by easily handling a large allowance field as she stretched out to her first route.
4. Closed along with the winner in her stakes debut.
5. Found a slightly easier stakes field and won for fun.
6. Beat Equivocations, Dehere Dabear, and the rest of the field in her Graded debut. Second choice in the betting, this was her only race where she was not favored.
Breeding:
Scratch bred. Screem is regally bred from some of the most successful lines in the Sim. Kingmamgo has produced 30 graded winners in the past five years and overall has produced stakeswinners at a rate just shy of 18%. Kingmambo’s get have done their best in dirt routes. This filly should handle the extra sixteenth well.
Connections:
Lenny is one of the most successful trainers in the game. He has 57 stables, 32 of which win at 19% or better. He also trains the favorite in the Oaks today.
Jockey V. Gardner is winning at a 26% clip this year and is a past winner of the Oaks aboard Texas Tornado in 2004.
Why she will win:
She is expertly handled and improving so steadily, you must expect another step forward for this filly. She has a Grade I win, and has won against large fields before. Her last two races had speed figures in the 100’s – right there with the fastest in the race. The median odds of past winners are right about at 12-1. No one could be surprised if she won.
Why she won’t:
This is a tougher field than she has ever faced before, and she’s always been the first or second choice in the betting before. Now, she’s tied for fourth choice.
PP 12 RATTYBURG(KY) (
Four of the past seven Oaks winners have a remarkable common history: They cashed a check but did not win the lool Stakes in their last race before the Oaks, and they have a top five finish in the California Oaks. Ratty was second in the lool and first in the Cal Oaks. Not only is she the only one in the race to fit that profile, she is the only one to have run in both important preps.
Racing History:
1, 2. She finished second in her first two tries in the summer of her two-year-old season.
3. She broke her maiden in her lone try on grass and her last lifetime sprint.
4-6. She picked up decent checks in high priced allowance company with a fourth and two wins. She was done running in allowances after these.
7. Her stakes debut was a restricted
8. Tried Graded stakes for the first time and finished five lengths behind Black Flag Flying.
9. Began her three-year-old season with a very respectable third against a tough Grade I Sunny Florida field.
10. Beat Dreamy Cat, Porn Star, and Nehi Orange in the
11. Was second last time to Sisson’s Mark, but ahead of Luzerne and Smell It in the lool stakes.
Breeding:
Scratch bred.
Connections:
Darnath is a
Jockey J. Caves is winning at an 19% clip this year.
Why she will win:
No other runner in the race so closely fits the profile so common to most of the previous Oaks winners. She’s been faster as a three year old and looks to be ready to run her best race yet.
Why she won’t:
While historically it’s been better to finish second in the lool than to win it, that’s just hard to believe, and the winner of that race is here today.
PP 13 SABBATH POINT(KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x
Trainer was seen doing a rain dance early in the week, and declaring the race over if we could only get an old fashioned
Racing History:
1. Won her maiden race in the slop. Eight others from that owner-restricted race have gone on to break their maidens.
2. On the basis of that first race, she went off as the favorite in the World Cup race for two-year-old fillies. She was a well-beaten sixth.
3. Next, and even third as the second choice in a DelPenn stakes.
4. Finished her juvenile season with a win as the favorite in a 20-filly DelPenn stakes.
5. Debuted as a three-year-old with her first race against open company. She was a decent second in an overnight stakes.
6. Worst race, as she was a well-beaten favorite in a
7. Crushed as favorite in the Grade II Fantasia.
8. Won for fun in the slop in the Grade II Fantasy.
Breeding:
Amazing sire has produced 33 graded stakes winners in the past five years, and over 18% of his get have been stakeswinners during that time. Distance does not appear to be an issue, though Sabbath’s worst race was at today’s distance.
Connections:
AFC is an active, consistent and talented player. The barn has many well-bred runners. Jockey W McClendon is winning at a 26% rate this year.
Why she will win:
Second in the morning line, she enters with the highest last-race speed figure in the field. She’s much better as a three-year-old than she was at two. She exits two very strong graded stakes efforts.
Why she won’t:
While she’s won in 20-horse fields before, she’s never faced as strong of a field as this. In fact, she hasn’t ever run against any of these fillies before. Besides, I don’t see any clouds at all.
PP 14 TEN YEAR STORM(KY) (SILVER DEPUTY x FORTY NINER x SUMMER SQUALL) bred by futurestar, trained by wtas02 (Dixiedotco Racing, 22%) Odds: 17-1
Winner of six of her first seven races, the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly, and the Eclipse Award as the top two-year-old filly, she tries to regain her form after two out-of-the-money finishes.
Racing History:
1. Beat boys in her March debut race.
2. Won an overnight stakes against four others in May.
3. Ended June by finishing second in the Grade II Stoker.
4. Ran no faster, but was able to handle a minimum field in an overnight.
5. Was an upset winner in the prestigious Grade II Margarine.
6. Beat Dreamy Cat and Nehi Orange in the Breeders Bowl.
7. Three-year-old campaign started promising as she demolished a tiny overnight field.
8. Got beat by Nehi Orange, Black Flag Flying, Porn Starr, Equivocations, and one other in the Grade I Vermont is for Lovers.
9. Looked a bit better finishing third in the Grade III We Get Signal.
Breeding:
Dam was a formidable sprinter and ended her career with 24 wins in only 65 starts. Ten Year’s older siblings have been OK, but not spectacular. Silver Deputy’s get have done as well in routes as they have in sprints.
Connections:
Nothing seems impossible for a Dixiedotco trainee. She is always among the best there is. Jockey J White is winning nearly 30% of his starts.
Why she will win:
Her last race was encouraging. Eclipse award winner looked ready to revert to her winning ways.
Why she won’t:
No Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly winner has gone on to win the Oaks. Nine fillies in this field chalked up triple digit speed figures in their last race. Ten Year’s best was a 99. If she doesn’t do well here, she may follow her mother’s path and stick to sprinting.
PP 15 PORN STARR(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II) bred by fastvett, trained by korn (Qwikvett Stables, 14%) Odds: 14-1
With a close third in a Derby Lock race against colts, this filly, whose name is inspired by her horse number, looks to have a major say in the Oaks.
Racing History:
1. Second in a tiny maiden race early in the season.
2. Beat a large, but unimpressive, field to bread her maiden
3. Beat a pretty good overnight field on an off track.
4. A decent third in the Grade I Hoserhead.
5. An easy win against an easy field.
6. Her worst race, as she faded to 13th in the Grade II Margarine. She would never run so poorly again
7. Last race in a busy two-year-old campaign, she beat a less than stellar Grade I field.
8. Began her three-year-old season with a nice second against colts.
9. Third in a graded stakes, earning her only 100 speed figure.
10. Fourth in the
11. Third against some top colts in the Grade I Wooden Indian.
Breeding:
Scratch bred. Four and five years ago, Empire Maker had a few multiple stakes winners. In the past three years, he’s had only one.
Connections:
Qwikvett belongs to the Northwest Racing Circuit residency and is a consistent and steady trainer. Jockey N. Lawton is winning more than 25% of her races this year.
Why she will win:
She was strong and competitive against colts that have a decent chance to win the Bluegrass Derby. This race marks a class drop for this very talented filly.
Why she won’t:
She only has one 100+ speed figure and is 0 for 5 in routes.