Adelaide Derby G1 12F

Adelaide Derby– G1, 3yo M 12F Turf

Purse 500,000 Victoria

  Many of you dirt racing fans think all the big races are being run in Blue Grass Country this week, but down under we have a few monster races carded on the lawn that could impact the big picture just as much. In fact the Adelaide Derby, the one I am covering may be changing its name soon to “The License to Print Money Derby”.  While I am just joking about the name change; a quick look at the prior winners of this race shows that the re-naming would be highly accurate. Sim vets will quickly tell you that finding a horse that can win at 12f on the turf is the quickest way to pile up an eye popping bankroll. That is because so few have the speed and power required to make be a champion at the gut busting distance.  The Adelaide is one of the season’s first opportunities to see which 3 year old will be the boss of the moss at 12F.  

  In 2004 Sunnybank Memorial won the Adelaide in the midst of an awe inspiring run of 7 straight Graded wins (6 G1’s at 12F). After a loss he came right back and dazzled the Breeder’s BowlTurf field with a 116 at 12F.   Stunning achievements even for a three time Eclipse winner but believe it or not Sunnybank Memorial is not the only past winner of the Adelaide to exceed 10 million in lifetime earnings. 2005 winner, the legendary Horsehoe Bay, has also “eclipsed” the 10 mil mark and won 4 of those Eclipse Awards. In 2005 his equally impressive streak of 6 straight G1’s included the Adelaide and his magnificent 3 year old campaign also concluded with the first of two Breeder’s Bowl turf wins. Wow!!!!   2006 winner Cortez followed in their other worldly footsteps winning the Sydney Derby before the Adelaide, but could “only” (yes I jest) muster 2 more G1 scores during his 3 year old season and eventually ran into the Horseshoe Bay buzz saw in the Breeders Bowl. His career earnings sit at 3.5 million and counting.  Last year another lawnmower, aptly named Rural Law, ruled the Adelaide, but broke the three year trend of winning the Sydney Derby first. Rural Law went on to win 3 more G1’s at 12F during his 3 year old reign of terror and his lifetime earnings are still growing, already closing in on the 2.5 million dollar marker.

  So one thing seems pretty certain; whichever intrepid runner wins this title is likely on his way to racing fame and fortune; and possibly immortality. Get ready to toss another shrimp on the barbie, and say gidday to the 2008 Adelaide Derby field.

Spending Bill – PP #12 ML 7-1 : Enters this race with 6 wins from 9 starts on the lawn including 3 stakes wins. He has never run 12F (surprisingly only one in this field has gone 12f) but the Tnillson trainee seems well bred to get it and won by 5 and change at 11f in his last out. Hard to judge his speed figures in his best races because they were won by large margins but they may be a tad slower than some others in this one. Likes to go to the front and not look back. Spending Bill has not run his best in previous graded tries, but enters the race in terrific form. If he gets loose on the lead he is a major threat, but the multitude of early speed horses in this race seem to hurt his chances.

The Gun Went Off- PP # 6 ML 5-1  The favorite is also the most intriguing horse in the field and one that many thought might be looking for the roses in Kentucky instead coming down under for the Adelaide.  Lenny perhaps the sim’s hottest trainer played a hunch and debuted The Gun Went Off on the grass in his last out and the results were an eye popping 104 spf at 11F.  After that open length, win for fun, score it seems his connections decided grass is his surface of choice despite already owning a G1 on dirt. He likes to come out of the clouds and has the late turn of foot to do it. The horse who ran second to him in his last has flattered that performance by winning the G1 Sydney Derby at 12f.  If he gets a trip and runs his race he moves alongside the prior heroes of the Adelaide.

Frost Dragon- PP # 7 ML 24-1   Given Stables has been bringing this front runner around slowly.  He often seems to running in a different race than his opponents opening leads on the field as wide as 11 lengths at the second call.  This is a major step up in class for many in this race and Frost Dragon is among those trying a big move up. His only stakes win was his last race and although it was impressive it was versus a small field. Should hook up with Spending Bill early and is a major pace factor. Wily vet trainer may have this one sitting on a monster.

 Fumetsu – PP #1 ML 14-1  His trainer Topicount will likely be in Bluegrass country saddling his Derby horses but Fumetsu comes into the Adelaide with an impressive enough resume to be the lead 3 year old in most barns. A two time winner at 11F who looks like more track will only make him better. German race fans are still buzzing about his run in the Lombard, so expect plenty of Deutschmarks to be bet on this one. Notice he is coming back on shorter rest than most in this field, will it be a blessing or a curse. Many prior Adelaide winners have used this quick turn around technique to great effect (3 of 4 prior winners) so leave him off your tickets at your own risk.

 Musical Cat – PP #10 –  ML  7-1   His last out was a Japanese tour de force, blistering the field in the China Shop Bull Handicap.  The 104 spf at 11f is the co-best entering this race. He likes to stalk the pace setters and pounce late and that running style should be to his benefit in this race. Stoner and Champion2 both know this 3 year old is special, they have him chomping at the bit and ready to go. Is he the next superstar long distance grass router? It would not surprise me at all if everything fell his way and he is talented enough to finish the job if it does.

Metis – PP #5 – ML 13-1  This one is sort of the home town boy looking to be the prodigal Aussie bred son.  His dance card looks like so many of the best in this race, a series of allowance wins and a nice 11F stakes win in his last out.  Another who would like the lead but one of the few front runners who has shown the ability to rate.  Coolk Stables have an amazing 20 percent wins lifetime so Metis comes into the race well schooled. There is nothing I can find that would dissuade anyone from choosing to wager on this one. He certainly looks poised for a career best race, and he will need it to win.

 Tropical Prince – PP #11 – ML 10-1   Tropical Prince like all but one in this race comes in without a prior effort at this distance.  While many have shown signs that it won’t be a problem, Tropical Prince might be among the few for whom the distance is still a question mark.  His last out at 11 panels saw him closing late but finishing 5 back of Spending Bill.  His spf at 11 is also a bit slower than many in this field. Everyone at Nickesyd Racing Club will be pulling for him, but I can’t see it happening unless he runs a milestone race.

Zamtrical – PP #14 – ML 11-1 This one chased Musical Cat home in his last finishing 4^th.  One of my favorite handicapping questions arises from his performance. Is the 94 spf he received for that effort a sign of his talent or a carry over effect from Musical Cat’s huge race?  Rafa Stables knows their horse likes the lead and they have to be concerned about a possible early speed duel.  A few of the early speed horses seem likely to be fried by a hot pace. Zamtrical might be wise to sit back a bit and try and rate.  Certainly has the talent, but not my pick.

Skidded – PP #9 – ML 8-1  Another coming into the race off a nice performance chasing home Musical Cat in the China Shop Bull Handicap. Runs best when sitting near the lead so his style could help him in this race that has many interested in the lead. As to the distance he seems bred for the chore but it would not surprise me if 9 or 10 panels are more to his liking. I think Skidded will need the stars to align to make this his day. The Brundlefly stables are a seasoned outfit and may know more about this one than the dance card shows.

 Grand Victoire – PP #3 – ML 19-1    This Dixiedotco charge comes in off a series of confidence boosting allowance races and is undefeated since breaking his maiden back in December.  His speed figures would look to leave him at a major disadvantage until you notice he has never been asked to run big, his wins have all been so easy.  If this stable was not running at a staggering 25 percent win rate, you might question the lack of stakes competition before this run at a Grade1.  Looks primed and ready to run his best race, but will that be good enough.  Either way Grand Victoire is worth a closer look as a value bet.

Waterfront – PP #13- ML  8-1  Another entry from the The Evil Empire. This one runs out of Thethumb stable and is not nearly as appealing The Gun Went Off.  If his races were ending at the third call he would be having a great year, but even at a mile he seems to be fading late. His front running style screams rabbit despite his low morning line. From where I sit it would look like he was entered to force the pace to be too hot to handle and set up his stable mates late charge. I tried to talk with the trainers of other front runners in the race about Waterfront but none would go on record.  Off the record one did state flatly, “there is a reason they are known as the Evil Empire”.  In the final analysis Waterfront may be as important in the outcome of this race as any despite having little chance of winning.

Isle of Fury – PP #2 – ML 13-1  Trained by Super1 comes in off a comfy win at 9.5F the longest he has gone and had his photo taken.  Despite being bred for the distance there is nothing in his race history that shows he will like the mile and a half.  His connections seem to be putting their faith in pedigree here and in a G1 that has this much talent that is a lot of faith.  Isle of Fury has a punchers chance but looks more likely to be knocked out than crowned. I will look elsewhere for a live long shot, but you could do worse.

 Greyhunt – PP #4 – ML  12-1  A frontrunner that wants to wire the field in a race that has more than a few with the same goal. He put up two very nice stakes efforts at 9.5 before getting his doors blown off by The Gun Went Off in his last at 11 panels. Unless the fave bounces don’t see this one ending much better for the Joss Stables pride and joy. Of course if he somehow gets loose on the lead he could shock the land down under.

Ziggy Rules – PP # 8 – ML 8-1 The product of the Fortune 500 is the only horse in this field to come in with a race at 12F in his chart, and he is also following the very successful training method of 3 of the 4 past winners in coming here off the the Sydney Derby. Those horses all won that race and Ziggy ran a game third. Showed he likes the distance but still will need a career best speed wise to cash a check in this one.

The final analysis- It is impossible to ignore The Gun Went Off despite being the favorite and only having one run on the grass. He looked like a champion in his last race and I see him adding to his resume here. The ferocious pace battle that is likely to ensue in front of him only heightens his chances. If one of the front runners manages to make a clean lead they are a major threat to upset the apple cart. If I had to try and beat The Gun Went Off I’d say the stalker Musical Cat has the best chance with Fumetsu as my third choice. Grand Victoire is my live long shot and value play.  

Sit back and enjoy this race knowing that the winner will likely be a multi-millionaire before the year is out and the early favorite for the 2008 Breeder’s Bowl Turf.