Illinois’ Jockey Guild
The tenth running of
Within a couple minutes from when the gates open we’ll know if the off track has another effect. Can it upset the strong pattern of past winners?
This has never been a kind race for longshots of fillies that run from off the pace. The past six winners have all been among the top two betting choices, and no winner has ever paid more than 8-1 odds. Today’s field features several longshots who have very promising futures. It’s only a question of how far away that future might be.
Watch the early card to see how that pattern is playing this Saturday.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 LOIRE VALLEY(KY) (DYNAFORMER x UNBRIDLED x RIBOT) bred and trained by Super18 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 17%) Odds: 18-1
The Supers are trying to buck a lot of trends here. No recent winner has prepped in an allowance race, gone off at such long odds, or won with a deep closing style. Throw in the less than stellar speed figures, and the long odds make sense. What is nice to see is that she broke her maiden on an off track and she showed substantial improvement last time.
PP 2 BOSCOS EMILY LEP(SAF) (TOREADOR (IRE) x MOUNTAIN CAT x TWO PUNCH) bred and trained by boscoyawp (Boscoman Stables, 10%) Odds: 13-1
This one deserves a long look. Only two fillies enter off in-the-money graded finishes. Boscos’ came in the Grade II Fantasia. It wasn’t the strongest field, but it was at least as strong as this. Her other graded tries were poor, so it’s very encouraging to see that last race. She usually runs near the pace, and that should be good here. Momma was a multiple winner in routes. Jockey’s been struggling.
PP 3 ALL MY JUMPING(KY) (BELONG TO ME x SUMMER SQUALL x RAISE A NATIVE) bred and trained by willowisp (Willow Stables, 10%) Odds: 16-1
As noted above, she got in off the scratch due to the off track. We’ll see if that’s good news or bad for her. Lightly raced filly has never been on an off track and has been out of the money only once in her brief career. Unfortunately that one time was her only stakes try, an even effort in an overnight. Last time she hit a 99 speed figure, and she’s steadily getting faster. Dam has produced a graded winner before. No reason to think she can’t improve to be in the thick of things here.
PP 4 TOASTED RAVIOLI(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x
Undefeated in four starts, this scratch bred has yet to feel threatened. The field she beat last time was a small but decent overnight field. The breeding is impeccable; the race-to-race improvement has been dramatic. Did I mention she is undefeated? This class rise does not look formidable in the least.
PP 5 VEGAN CAT(KY) (KINGMAMBO x STORM BIRD x ALYDAR) bred and trained by layoff (Worldwide, 16%) Odds: 15-1
I just asked my cat Muffin what she thought about the idea of a vegan cat. She responded by shredding my sofa upholstery, which I take to be a signal of disapproval. Anyway, this well bred filly makes a substantial class jump off a pair of allowance wins. She took a couple months off between those last two races and did get much faster during the vacation. It will take another big improvement to challenge here. Maybe the track conditions will help. She gets a decent jock.
PP 6 LURSA(KY) (CAT THIEF x NORTHERN DANCER x MISWAKI) bred and trained by wenlock (Wenlock Stables, 28%) Odds: 5-1
This is the stable I have my future bet on in the STC contest. Wenlock moved this filly, with a four out of five in-the-money grass record, to the dirt for the first time last outing, and she responded with a second in the Grade II We Get Signal, ahead of a strong field and establishing the highest speed figure coming into this race. This favorite perfectly fits the profile of past winners. Bet against her at your own risk.
PP 7 MAMBO PRAYER(KY) (KINGMAMBO x
In 2006 Golden Tune came off her 10th in the Louisiana Oaks to win the Jockey Guild. This one tries the same route, having finished 13th in that same race. Her lowly finish should not be held too much against her. Once it was apparent she was used up in a furious early pace, it didn’t matter how far back she finished. She finds herself in a race that historically favors early speed, and two time Jockey Guild winning jockey D McCants should know how to rate her. She is fortunate to find only one other filly rated early, and that one is to her outside. She should make the rail by the first turn, and then it’s up to her to win or lose the race. She’s two for two on wet tracks. Don’t ignore.
PP 8 THE WIGGLE WAGGLER(KY) (GOOD REWARD x SINGSPIEL(IRE) x EASY GOER) bred and trained by
Barn is delighted to see the off track for this filly, as she’s two for two on it. There’s no question her best chance is on the off track, but there is a question if she is fast enough to take advantage of these favorable conditions. She’s some ten speed points slower than some others. Dam has been very successful, getting three stakes winners out of six foals. Jockey is perennially midpack, and that’s not all bad.
PP 9 SMELLY GREEN STUFF(ENG) (
Filly ran off three straight wins a while ago. Then she showed decent efforts in a pair of nonwinning graded tries. Last time she was a length or so behind Boscos Emily Lep in the Grade II Fantasia after faltering from getting caught in a speed duel. This race features several who want to pounce on a faltering speed duel, but only two that figure to get in the duel. If this one or Mambo Prayer doesn’t fire today, the other one is primed to take advantage. Smelly is one of only two fillies here to own a triple digit speed figure. There are so many scales where this one sits second; you have to give her a major chance.
PP 10 GRANDSTAND DELIGHT(KY) (ROCK HARD TEN x STORM CAT x
She never menaced behind Boscos Emily Lep and Smelly Green Stuff in the Grade II Fantasia, then came back for a third in an average overnight last outing. Her lack of progress in her last two outings is troubling. Dam made a good living finishing close without winning after breaking her maiden. Minor award seems like the best chance for this daughter, too.
PP 11 THEIR PEGASUS(KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x COASTAL x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by bowlerboy (Bowlerboy Stables, 6%) Odds: 7-1
She comes in off a pair of overnight stakes wins. Both of those fields were pretty weak and we are troubled that her penultimate speed figure was faster than her last. She’s never run on an off track, but we know dam ran her worst races when it was wet. This filly did not look good in her only graded start, but did we mention she comes here off a two stakes winning streak? This is the top rated filly in the field and she gets Pedro Munoz to ride. That’s a huge plus.
PP 12 ENERGISED(JPN) (FRENCH DEPUTY x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x KRIS S.) bred by battlers, trained by fittler (Ozsteve Stables, 13%) Odds: 6-1
She was a close-up sixth in the Grade II Louisiana Oaks, finishing ahead of Miss Hennypenny and Mambo Prayer. This race has never been won by a filly coming from as far off the pace as Energised figures to come from, but ignore that and instead look at the serious early pressure and you have to give her a serious chance. Young jockey deserves the benefit of the doubt. Closer looks very dangerous here.
PP 13 MISS HENNYPENNY(KY) (HENNESSY x A.P. INDY x MISWAKI) bred and trained by simond2 (Hornedfrog Stables, 14%) Odds: 9-1
Late in her two-year-old season she looked very tough: She had a graded win and a second and an overnight win and a second to go along with her maiden win in nine starts. Her three-year-old campaign has not been so great. She has an overnight second, but her four other starts have resulted in an average of nearly nine beaten lengths. It’s tough to know what to do as a trainer. She should be getting better as she gets older and goes longer, but she’s not.
PP 14 STREET ACTION(ENG) (MOTIVATOR (GB) x STREET CRY (IRE) x NUREYEV) bred and trained by randwick1 (Bmr005 Stables, 9%) Odds: 11-1
Her first seven races resulted in seven finishes in-the-money. It made all kind of sense to move her to graded company then, but the results have not been good. She has two fifths and an eighth, but it bears mentioning that this field is weaker that what she’s faced in those three races. It is nearly axiomatic that she will finish with at least a piece of the purse. Exotic players need to keep her in mind.
Summary: Among the favorites we like Lursa. Among the longshots we like Boscos Emily Lep.