The PHONE UNTIL PHONES Cap
Welcome to Tennessee this week for the $40,000 PHONE UNTIL PHONES Cap stakes race. This race is for all horses 4yo and up and will be run for 14 furlongs on the dirt. We have a small field of just 5 horses racing this week so it is definitely going to be anyone’s race. Let’s meet the field. Post position 1 will hold Xtra Welcome, a 4yo colt sired by Unbridled’s Song and trained by ejdstable. It was only around 10 months ago that this colt first step foot on a racetrack. His first time out he ran an impressive 71 but didn’t break his maiden until two more races and that win would prove to be his only one to date. He was switched back and forth between allowance and stakes races but couldn’t quite pull of a win, although he only finished one time out of the money and that was his very first race. After breaking his maiden he raced once at 10 furlongs, once at 12 and once at 16. His other three races were at 13 furlongs. His high speed is 99 and that was on an off-track which makes me wonder if that was just a coincidence or if this horse may actually favor off-tracks. What I see when I look at this colt’s record is a horse that is just starting to come into his own. If he continues to improve he may pull off the upset in this race. The handicappers feel he has a fair chance with odds of 6/1, Comic Strip sired R Dangerfield, the 5yo stallion in post position 2. Trainer roundtable brought this horse into the racing world in April 2005 but it wasn’t until his eighth race 11 months later that he finally broke his maiden at 8.5 furlongs on the dirt. He was then put into allowance races with the shortest distance of one mile and the longest being 13 furlongs. After speeds of 72 and 89 his first two allowance races, he began to consistently produce speeds in the 90’s but once again that elusive win just seemed to be out of his reach. Three stakes tries after that and the best place he could capture was fourth. Then, over a year after his first win, after being put back in allowance races he brought home another win and then three more consecutive wins after that, the last one in June 2007 with a speed of 103 but at 8.5 furlongs. One more allowance race then he was entered into his first stakes. He couldn’t quite pull it off coming in seventh, 17 lengths behind the leader so it was back to allowance races. But this boy had a surprise in store when he showed a high speed of 108, winning at 11 furlongs. He would be entered into one more allowance before finally grabbing his first stakes win with a speed of 106 and at a distance of 10.5 furlongs. His last time out, however, he failed to perform and finished sixth with a speed that didn’t go out of the 90’s. This horse has the ability but his consistency has me a bit worried. The other thing that worries me is the distance. All of his wins have been at 11 furlongs or less. He has run greater distances but his best finish in those races was second by 3 lengths and that was at 13 furlongs, one furlong shorter than this race. The handicappers, though, feel that he has a good shot with odds of 8/5. We welcome lenny back this week with the horse in post position 3, Vintensity. This horse is sired by Vindication and out of the dam Razor Sal. lenny brings him here this week out of the training barn lenny17. He ran his very first race back in July 2006 and accomplished a great speed of 74 but failed to catch the win. It would be his second start where he would break his maiden. He would run in two allowance races on the dirt before being tried once on the turf. After only showing a speed of 61 on the grass he was put back onto the dirt in allowance races. His second race back on the dirt and he brought home his second win. Two more races with a fourth and a sixth and then he brought home two consecutive wins his first two times out at 12 furlongs. He was then put into a 12 furlong stakes race and brought home a third for his efforts. He would then go back to a 12 furlong allowance race and another win. His last four times out he was raced in one allowance and three stakes races between ten and fourteen furlongs. His last race was 14 furlongs and although he reached a top speed of 106, the best he could do was second. Looking at his record and the other horses in this race, Vintensity has a good chance of bringing home a win this week. The handicappers feel the same with giving him odds of 2/1. Awaiting the start in post position 4 will be Je Suis Pain, a 4yo colt sired by Linamix and trained by lilfrenchy. This guy broke his maiden his first time out back in June 2006. After an unsuccessful stakes start his second race, he was put into allowance sprints his next two times out and failed to even get out of the 50’s in speed. He was then tried on the turf and finished 12th out of 13 horses, 14 1/4 lengths off the leader. He would race once more in October 2006, produced a speed of 73 but couldn’t do better than fifth. It wouldn’t be until March of this year that he would race again but managed to bring home his second lifetime win after the long layoff in another allowance sprint. His last time out he produced a high speed of 81 and came home with a second at 7 furlongs. From what I can see, this horse has the makings of a good allowance horse but I really feel as if he is outclassed in this stakes field. With a high speed of only 81 and never racing over 8 furlongs, his two wins being sprints, I don’t think that he’ll pose much of a threat. Perhaps with a little more experience he’ll be able to perform well in stakes races but at this time I feel that this attempt in a stakes race is very premature. The handicappers apparently feel the same way as he goes into this race as the long shot with odds of 85/1. In post position 5 will be Sad Java Man. This 6yo stallion is sired by Saddler’s Hall and trained by golfteam. He first stepped onto the track back in February 2004 for one race on the dirt before being switched to turf 5 races then back to the dirt. He was unable to capture a win, although came close a couple of times. He was then switched over to another trainer and in January 2005 finally broke his maiden on the dirt in an allowance. He began to show increases in his speed and was bounced back and forth between dirt and turf as well as varying distances and including a few claimers. It would be over a year before he would win again, once again on the dirt in an allowance at a distance of 12 furlongs. He performed poorly his next three races and it was after those races that he came to golfteam‘s training barn. He was then consistently run on the dirt at distances of 9 furlongs and up and his third start for golfteam he brought home a win by 2 lengths which was in a claimer. He was raced in an allowance then two stakes to no avail but one more allowance race and he ran off with the win by 5 3/4 lengths. His second race after that he brought home another allowance win, this time by 5 lengths. That win was the beginning of a 6 race winning streak which included a starter and four stakes wins, the last of the streak being in August 2007. He also showed that he was able to produce a high speed of 104. He was then tried in graded stakes but didn’t perform well but when he was taken back down to ungraded stakes he brought home another win by an impressive 5 1/4 lengths. With plenty of experience at great distances and the ability to produce the speeds as well, he is one to watch in this race. The handicappers named him the favorite with odds of 3/2. Vintensity x Sad Java Man x R Dangerfield I picked Vintensity over Sad Java Man for the main reason that he has shown the ability to produce slightly higher speeds and if he can hold it together for the 14 furlongs, he has a great chance of winning here this week. If Vintensity does take the win, you can bet that Sad Java Man will be right there in second. The most experienced horse at greater distances, Sad Java Man will put up a valiant fight but if Vintensity pours on the speed Sad Java Man just may not be able to keep up. I was up in the air for third between R Dangerfield and Xtra Welcome. Once again, speed played an important part in my decision. R Dangerfield has produced the high speed of 108, faster than any in the field, but will more than likely have a difficult time with the distance but with Xtra Welcome never breaking 100 on speed I think he’ll have an even harder time. So, there you have it… We’ll see just how close I am on predictions this Saturday. Good Luck and Happy Racing Oh, and by the way, if you have any questions or comments feel free to contact me at wolfmagic6@yahoo.com. I’d love to hear from you.