Field of 14 for the Grade I Sydney Sprint Million
PP1- 15/1 Tree Guest House (24-7-4-2-529K)- Anymore – F Hanson (2008 WP 15.4%- 54% ITM)
Anymore sends out their 5yo scratch homebred out of Forestry and a Be My Guest mare. Tree Guest House generally runs off of the pace which is not really the place to be in a race as short as 5.5 f. He has tasted grade one victory before last September in the Liar’s poker Special, but finished a combined 17 lengths out in his other two grade one tries. His form seems off since last fall with the exception of a 107 two races back has been hovering in the high 90’s for speed figures. He has never run on an off track so that is a complete unknown. His top speeds have generally been at 6.5 and 7f, so this race may be a bit too short for his best effort. His best speed of 112 would be good enough to win, but I do not see that kind of an effort coming after his series of lackluster efforts. He has a shot, but a very slim one.
Projected finish- 7th, will be coming at the end but will be too far back early to get into the mix.
PP2- 11/1 Luca Brasi (29-13-2-2-540K)- Crazyjoe– C Bailey (2008 WP 12.2%- 34% ITM)
Crazyjoe sends out a 5yo son of Dixieland Band out of a Sadler’s Wells who has shown only fair form as of late. This guy can come from way back, but runs best when he is a bit closer to the pace. A career best speed figure of a 109 makes me think he might be up against it as I do not think that is going to be enough in this race. This is a horse that smashes listed stakes competition but other than a grade three back in February of 2006 has fared very poorly when running with graded competition. Hi s one attempt on an off track came on dirt so I have no idea how he handles the track this week. Luca Brasi is another horse that seems to like 6.5 furlongs much better than the 5.5 this week. For this guy to get to the winner’s circle he needs to run a career best and have the top horses have a bad day. Certainly could pick up a check this week, but a win is unlikely. That is not a knock on him; after all he is a very nice horse that just happens to be running against some monsters this week.
Projected finish- 10th, not his best distance
PP3- 10/1 R Loyal Man (KY) (22-5-3-2-298K)- Kbsweet– N Pitts (2008 WP 0%- 23% ITM)
Kbsweet sends out her 4yo son of Mr. Greeley out of the mare Streets of Heaven (Lil’s Lad) to try a 5.5 furlong sprint for the first time. The bulk of R Loyal Man’s work has been around the one mile distance and has no stakes wins shorter than 7.5 f, and only one total stakes win at 7.5F (G III). This horse absolutely positively must have the lead. He has exactly one win coming from off the pace and that was over one year ago in a restricted allowance race. There could be as many as seven other horses all wanting the lead and this could turn out to be a suicidal pace. He has two career stats on an off track, one dirt and one turf, and seemed to handle the condition decently. I do not think he can win from out front, and I don’t think he can win from off the pace, but I do think he has shown the heart to hang on at the end even if he is caught for a decent finish. His jockey draw for this race was unfortunate, as N Pitts has a big goose egg in the win column in 13 starts this year. This is a very nice horse, but I don not think this is his best distance and might be overmatched in a grade one at this distance. Would have a much better shot if this race was a furlong or so longer.
Projected finish- 8th, has an outside shot, but distance does not suit him.
PP4- 8/1 Satrus (KY) (18-7-1-1-328K)- Bagur– M Slater ( 2008 WP 7.1%- 21% ITM)
Bagur sends out his 4yo colt out of War Chant and the graded stakes winning he-mare Satrustegui (Forty Niner) this week. Lightly raced at only 18 races this guy has a real legit shot. He has a couple of things that work really well in his favor. He is two out of three on an off track which we have, and will be nowhere near the hot pace that should be expected. The one thing that may hurt him though is his tendency to get away slowly in graded races. In both 5.5 graded attempts in the past he has been as far back as 9 furlongs in both, and while he was flying at the end he never really got close to the winner. M Slater has got to get him really warmed up before the race, and hope he gets away well, because if he does his usual slow start it will be over before it ever really gets started. His best speed of 114 was posted at 7f which seems to be his best distance as that extra furlong or so allows his closing style to shine. Has a chance, but I would expect a closing middle of the pack finish, not his best distance.
Projected finish- 3rd, the best of the deep closers
PP5- 6/1 Rudy (23-15-2-2-567K)- Stupor1– T Baxter (2008 WP 6.8%- 25% ITM)
Stupor1 sends out this moderately bred 5yo mare to take her first crack at the boys this week. She is a daughter of Bestyoucanbe out of a Distant View mare. Don’t worry I had to see who they were out of also. Coming off her last outing which was a grade two win with a speed figure off 112 makes her a very live horse in this race. She likes to be up front, but does not need the lead. She is perfectly happy to stalk a hot pace or run out front and set the pace. This race sets up real nicely for her. Unlike many in this race her best efforts come at 6 furlongs and her career best speed figure was run on a yielding turf surface. The one thing that stands out as a big negative is her tendency to bounce after a big effort. Horses rarely run back to back career bests, and I don’t think it happens this week either. I like her chances to hit the board but the timing seems bad for a win. Everything in this races is right in her wheelhouse except the timing.
Projected finish- 6th, best of the front runners but might bounce this week.
PP6- 55/1 Saltystckysweet (32-9-7-2- 562K)- Tsunami363– J Gabanski (2008 WP 4.8%- 10% ITM)
Tsunami363 sends out a 4yo former claimer who also happens to be the biggest long shot on the board this week. He is out of Fair Mix (IRE) and the mare lake Dancer (Salt Lake). This horse has an interesting story. Ten months ago he was busy winning a G I, five months ago he was running for a 5K tag, and Tsunami363 picked him up for 20K only 4 months ago. Previous owners have run this horse into the ground, racing him eight times in a two month period as a 3yo. His current owner has given him some time off, but his form still seems very poor at the moment, running a 79, 77, and 80 in his last three. His career best of 103 is not enough to be close this week, and he has not been close to that number since last November. When he runs his race he prefers a stalking position, but I don’t think he can get up with the leaders in this race. One need only look at this horse and wonder what might have been, he is a shell of his former self and the recent results show it.
Projected finish- 14th, in over his head this week, needs a drop in class to be competitive
PP7- 15/1 Bulgaria (45-10-10-2-437K)- Exit12farm– K Philip (2008 WP 14.3%- 43% ITM)
Exit12farm sends out their grizzled veteran 6yo horse out of Cape Canaveral and the mare More Steer (Storm Cat) for his 46th race. While he is still very competitive with graded competition he has become wildly inconsistent since his switch to turn in March of 2007. He is another one that will be up front early, but needs a stalking trip. When he has gunned out to early leads in stakes races he has faded late, and I would expect that to be the case if he gets out front this week too. He has almost had 2 different careers, spending the first four years primarily as a dirt horse, then the last year as a turf horse. He has two stakes wins among his 10 total wins, one of which was on turf. He is a very nice horse but may be in over his head this week. I do not think he can win from out front and is only the third or fourth best stalker in the field. He also has never run back to back speed figures in excess of 100, and he ran a 106 last time out. I would expect a big bounce this week and towards the back finish.
Projected finish- 11th, belongs in this race, but looks like a bounce week.
PP8- 9/1- Perfect Presence (35-7-6-6-382K)- Lgbost9a– R Owen (2008 WP 13.9%- 36% ITM)
Lgbost9a sends out their hot 5yo horse out of Pleasantly Perfect and the mare Jenna’s Wildcat (Forest Wildcat) that is coming off of a string of strong outings. This guy is a short sprint specialist that is going to love the distance of 5.5f. A former claimer that never really showed much until midway through his 4yo campaign, but has been running great as of late. Just think you could have had this horse for a 3500 tag. Whatever his past was he is at the top of his game now. Another one of the stalking group that won a grade two at this distance only two starts back. He has run on off tracks three times in the past, two of which were on dirt, and all three occurred before he really started to run, so those results can be tossed aside, but he one run on turf was a win. Two races back he ran a career best 108 and then backed that up with a 109, can he can he make it three in a row is the real question though? I would expect a slight bounce, but I wouldn’t guarantee it. If, and that is a big if he can run another A+ race he has a real shot this week. He is not the best horse in this race by a lot, but he is running very good right now and his form could not be better. I really expect to see him in the money this week, and a top three is not out of the question.
Projected finish- 2nd, an improving horse that keeps getting better, could be a breakout week.
PP9- 9/1- Digging The Grave (44-17-6-6-4.1 M)- Zewango2– R Dowell (2008 WP 17.9%- 46% ITM)
Zewango2 sends out his 7yo scratch homebred out of Silver Ghost and a Green Desert mare. This guy has done so much that I don’t have space to list all of his accomplishments, but let’s just say he is a multiple multiple graded stakes winner of over four million in earnings. But it is an off track you say, how does he like that? Only a grade one victory and 664K in earning in four off track races to his record I say. Having said all of that, the wear and tear is starting to show and he has not visited the winner’s circle since June of last year. Predominantly a front runner, this race sets up horribly for him as he is unable to carry that speed like he once did. He has won at this distance with graded company but not in almost three years. Still a very good horse, just not the freak he used to be. I see a very nice he-mare in the very near future.
Projected finish- 5th, best is in the past but gets a check on pure class
PP10- 26/1- Jenna’s Deputy (29-10-5-4- 740K)- Dowelly2– L Fain (2008 WP 22.6%- 35% ITM)
Dowelly2 sends out the long shot Jenna’s Deputy who is out of French Deputy and the mare Jenna’s Choice (AUS) (Redoute’s Choice). Most of the damage this horse did was at two and threes years old and has fared pretty poorly against older horses after turning four this year. With only two speed figures over 99 in the last 7 months and 7 races makes it very tough for me to find a situation that has a happy ending for this guy in this race. Another one of the speed horses, but not the best of that bunch by a ways. I do think he will get better as the season progresses as many a 4yo has struggled against older horses. His biggest score was the Grade I World Cup Turf last year where he scored a victory, but has been unable to find much success since, or recapture that form. He has shown the class in the past to compete with this group but not for some time and I don’t think this is the week either. I would expect some improvement later in the year, but not this week.
Projected finish- 13th, not running lately like he belongs in this race. Has in the past but not in a while.
PP11- 5/1- Mr Devious (34-16-4-4-2.3 M)- Londoner- P Bangs (2008 WP 22.1%- 54% ITM)
Londoner brings in his 5yo beast of a sprinter in great form and sitting on a big run this week. He is a son of Crafty Prospector out of the mare Lady Storm (Storm Cat) that has over 2.2 million in earnings. His one lone trip on an off track was the Grade I Japan Sprint only 4 months ago. If anyone needs lessons on how to manage a great horse, Londoner could write the book on it. This horse races when there is a big race, and uses listed stakes as tune-ups, but keeps his starts well apart. He is 5yo and running just as well if not better than he ever has. He has not raced at 5.5f since his 2yo campaign, but has multiple grade one victories at six furlongs, so distance is not an issue. He is a stalker which is the perfect set up for this race, but can run up front if the pace is soft, but I don’t think there is any chance of that happening. I almost always try to find a reason to not pick the chalk in a race like this, but here is nothing to knock him on. He is not going to bounce, and seems to be sitting on a big one. I simply love this horse in this spot. Of course me picking him is most likely the kiss of death.
Projected finish- 1st, perfect set up for a monster of a horse. Its his race to loose
PP12- 8/1- Paper Jesus (NM) (23-5-6-3- 660K)- Troy5– B Philp (2008 WP 12.9%- 35% ITM)
Troy5 sends out his 4yo scratch bred colt out of Quinton’s Gold and an Unbridled mare in pretty good present form. Although he has been running well the last two races it has now been over a year since he has seen victory. He appears to be a seven furlong specialist that has not fared well at distances of less than 6.5 furlongs, having not seen a win at less than 6.5f since his 2yo year. Paper Jesus likes to come from off the pace, but not way back. He should be mid pack early and make a late run. He likes a n off track and has finished second in both tries. This is a very nice horse that would have a shot with this crowd if the race was longer. A short sprint like this just does not suit him well, and I think he is going to be too far back early to have an impact.
Projected finish- 12th, will be too far back, and has won in along long time
PP13- 7/1- Fantastic Kris (36-13-9-2- 416K)- 3rdtry– S Smelt (2008 WP 0%- 12% ITM)
3rdtry saw the forecast and said “Pack your bags, we are going to Austrailia.” Fantastic Kris would be best described as an off track specialist having ran over 33% of his races on an off track. He is a son of Fantastic Light out of a Flag Down mare. He has run his top speed figure of 112 on an off track in September of 2006. He is generally a front runner, but has won in the past from coming just off the pace. His form is good right now, but that was up against much softer fields that this one. I would not consider him as a threat if the horses could hear their feet rattle, but that is not the case. If you remember John’s Call, he could win on soggy turf course until he was 10, and this guy is similar to that. I don’t think he can win, but would not shock me to see him in the money this week. Needs to have a monster effort to have a shot.
Projected finish- 9th, if some of the horses do not handle the track this guy could finish much higher
PP14- 11/1- Nine Under (39-11-3-5- 724K)- Megaman42– L Fontain (2008 WP 11.2%- 37% ITM)
Megaman42 sends out his 6yo son of Pulpit out of the graded stakes winning he-mare Daniner (Forty Niner) this week. He is coming off of a very poor outing last time out, but his career best efforts are good enough to win this week. He has handled off tracks in the past and there is little to make on e think that would change this week. He has lost to several of these horses in recent races, but a third place finish in the Grade I Japan Sprint is a solid effort that he could build on. Generally a closer that likes to be about four off of the pace. This race really sets up well for him with the probable hot early pace. He has a career best speed figure of 113 which is enough to win this week if he can duplicate that effort. He showed in the Japan Sprint that he can run with the best, so there is no reason he should not pick up a check. It would appear that his bounce race was the last one out, and could be sitting on a big effort this week.
Projected finish- 4th, has a legit shot, but needs a huge effort