Corkscrew Derby Lock

Hey, Buddy, you wanna know who’s going to win the Bluegrass this year?”

At the conclusion of the Grade I Corkscrew we may well have the answer.  The past three Bluegrass winners, and four of the past seven, all were winners in the Corkscrew as they prepped for that more famous race.

In fact, betting on the Corkscrew winner has been a winning formula in all three Triple Crown races.  The past Corkscrew winners have eight wins in 15 Triple Crown starts.

But not everyone is impressed with this year’s field.  Corky Thibodeau, a longtime handicapper, thinks trainers are approaching things differently this year.

“It used to be you needed some solid wins to make the Derby field.  Now you just need one,” says Thibodeau, “And once you get that win, you stop racing until the Derby.”    Qualification rules were changed last year in an attempt to allow the hot three-year-olds into the race at the expense of horses that had earned their points as two-year-olds.  Several races, including the Corkscrew, were designated Derby Lock races – a win automatically qualifies your horse into the field.

“Two years ago there were four colts with graded wins in the field, and last year there were three.  This year, there’s only one,” Thibodeau observed. 

While it’s true that no entry in the field is currently rated in the top 30 of the division, Derby bettors might forgive the lack of previous high-level success.  Both Ataun and Virtuoso entered the Corkscrew without a graded win on their resume.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1 HEAVEN’S DISTRESS(KY) (BERNARDINI x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x STORM CAT) bred and trained by binky (Elenalag Stables, 8%) Odds: 13-1

Back routing after a second in a small overnight sprint where he finished second.  He lacks a triple digit speed figure, does not own a stakes win, and makes a huge class jump.  His biggest asset may be his breeding.  Elenalag Stables found an unraced very expensively bred mare.  This one is her first runner, and his future looks bright, but it’s probably too early in his career to expect what will be needed to win today.

PP 2 SEREVUS(KY) (DYNAFORMER x SAKURA SEEKING x PULPIT) bred and trained by babycolt (Stoddard Stables, 13%)  Odds: 24-1

He gets the longest odds in a race with many longshots.  That’s probably not fair, as he beat another in this field last time, and that colt is at half the odds.  Severus is out of a turf specialist mare, but so far he’s stayed on the dirt and seems to like it.  He was a high priced second last time in his stakes debut against a moderate overnight field.  The class jump is formidable, but he did show a marked improvement last time, and three-year-olds can build on sudden improvement.

PP 3 DHARMA INITIATIVE(KY) (MINESHAFT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) bred and trained by willyam46 (Willyam13 Stables, 9%) Odds: 8-1

Every previous Corkscrew winner has finished fourth or better in a graded stakes in his previous start.  Dharma’s one of only two colts here to meet that criterion by finishing second in the G3 Tommy Wayne Johnson (the other is Sahara Desert).  He’s had six weeks to recover from that effort, but that patient spacing has been his pattern all along.  Sire is producing nearly 14% stakes winners. All systems look go for this one.  Normally steady jockey is having a tough time getting going this year, but gets a live mount today.

PP 4 ZIGS AGAIN(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x DANZIG x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by cleverdoc (Cleverdoc Stables, 18%) Odds: 13-1

Last three races have been wins in MSW, N2L, and N3L to bring his record to three wins and a second in four routes, and all the while he’s been just getting faster.  And in a race filled with horses that like to come from well off the pace, he should be able to find an open spot just behind the early pace.  That’s all nice, and he’s surely a nice colt with a promising feature.  But you just aren’t supposed to go from a five-horse N3L allowance in China to winning a Grade I stakes.  And if you do, you’re supposed to pay more than 13-1.

PP 5 SAHARA DESERT(AUS) (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x STORM CAT x CLEVER TRICK) bred and trained by godmother (Tropicount Stables, 14%) Odds: 6-1

One of three co-favorites at 6-1. This colt has a lot to offer.  He has a large class edge on most of the field.  He’s been in the money in two graded stakes, including last time in the very tough All Saints.  He’s the only one to have 100+ speed figures in both of his last two races.  Jockey is red hot and has won this race twice in the last three years.  The race looks to set up for one that can run close to the pace, and he qualifies on that score too.  His dam was well-bred but slow.  There are some that say such mares are not worth breeding to.  Let this runner be proof that ain’t necessarily so. 

PP 6 THIS CALLING(IRE) (SADLER’S WELLS x ALYDAR x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by arse2007 (Black Label Stables, 19%) Odds: 18-1

Fourteenth qualifier out of 17 entrants.  He was able to chase down some lone speed in a Wyoming allowance race last time, earning a decent 97 speed figure.  He truly does have a serious rally in him and if he’s not overwhelmed by the huge class jump, he might be a factor late.  Best guess is that he will be overwhelmed though.  He tried a couple minor stakes last year and did not look good.

PP 7 CRAZED(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT) bred and trained by malekfarms (Afc Stables, 17%) Odds: 10-1

Went off at the same odds last time in the Sand Castle, and he looked like he didn’t belong.  It would be nice to blame it on the sloppy track, but his best lifetime race was the time before and that was also on an off track.  His other graded stakes try last October also was not good.  He likes to sit mid-pack and sometimes fires and sometimes doesn’t.  Until he proves he can handle the class, I’ll pass at this level.

PP 8 LIFELESS PULP(KY) (SMART STRIKE x DANZIG x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by rori (Pierchinski Stables, 18%) Odds: 11-1

Two races back he finished a couple lengths behind Dharma Initiative in the Tommy Wayne Johnson, while managing to pass a lot of horses late.  He absolutely did not enjoy getting the wet sand kicked in his face when he tried the Sand Castle last time, and he balked when asked for his late run.  If the wet track was really the issue, then he deserves to be considered nearly at the same level as all the 6-1 horses.  True, he hasn’t quite run the 100+ figure, but if we’re assuming it was the rain last time, then we should assume he would have made the figure.

PP 9 HENRY CLAY(KY) (A.P. INDY x DEPUTY MINISTER x SEATTLE DANCER) bred and trained by gipper8 (Gipper Stables, 14%) Odds: 12-1

Colt makes just his fifth lifetime start today.  He was a competitive fourth in the Grade II Silver Fence early this year and then was a closing third, just behind Severus, in an overnight stakes last time.  He’s a colt with a very bright future, but he needs a big and sudden improvement to win today.  Such things can happen, but it says here he need more seasoning.

PP 10 CAT CREEPER(KY) (TALE OF THE CAT x DEVIL’S BAG x GRAUSTARK) bred by legends2, trained by champions0 (Home To Over 40 Injuries Since Week 3126, 27%)  Odds: 6-1

There are some new readers who don’t know Stoners, the player behind the oft-injured stables.  I, for one, enjoy sitting back and watching controversy, and Stoners, until being banned from the message board, was at the center of many controversies.  In 2005, he trained Anticosti through a series of seven graded wins in eight starts.  The streak included wins in The Fountain of Ute, The Corkscrew, and the Bluegrass Derby.  He confidently predicted the Bluegrass win and then caused a stir when he sat Anticosti out of the other two Triple Crown races. 

Stoners returns to The Corkscrew with Cat Creeper.  This co-favorite is not on the tear Anticosti was, but he’s been impressive in his brief career, picking up four wins in six starts and earning the highest speed figure in the field.  It’s true he didn’t beat much last time, but at least it was decisively over a large field.  It’s encouraging that he’s getting faster as he goes longer, as this is longer than he’s gone before.

PP 11 WELL GROOMED(KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x RIVERMAN) bred by afc3, trained by super3 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 16%) Odds: 6-1

The third horse in the field that ran in the Tommy Wayne Johnson, this one gets the lowest odds despite finishing behind the other two.  He has two in-the-money finishes in graded stakes and two triple digit speed figures, and that explains the price.  Last out he demolished a typical overnight field.  His best races have been at a half-furlong longer, and if he can pull of a win today, he should love the Bluegrass distance.

PP 12 ROMAN PLUTONIUM(KY) (ROMAN RULER x SEATTLE SLEW x SEARCH FOR GOLD) bred and trained by leiter (Chuckrock Conglomerate Stables, 10%) Odds: 7-1

With all the Derby lock races, you’d expect the Fountain of Ute winner to already had qualified, but this 37^th rated colt will be on the sidelines unless he can win today.  He threw a real clunker last time in the Florida Derby.  That has to give his backers pause, but there’s good news.  He ran only one other poor race.  That came early in his career and he followed that with a win, so he can bounce back.  His excuse in the Florida may have been that he got caught up in a pace that was just too hot.  That’s more good news.  The Corkscrew is setting up to have a gentle early pace.

PP 13 SEVEN STRIKES(KY) (SMART STRIKE x SEPTIEME CIEL x DANZIG) bred and trained by thereason (ONEWORLD Stables, 10%) Odds: 14-1

It’s hard to make a case for this one.  He wasn’t close in a N3L allowance last time, he has one win in the last ten months, and his speed figures have been slow.  Let’s try: His dam was a stakeswinner, and he gets a jockey who should get all he can out of the colt.  Barn is not afraid to place runners unconventionally.  Seven Strikes tried an open allowance race in his debut.  Sometimes unconventional pays off.

PP 14 SMACKZAPPER(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x GONE WEST x SECRETARIAT) bred by grholding2, trained by texasace (Lone Star Racing, 27%) Odds: 16-1

No one is happier to see the lack of early speed in the field than Smackzapper’s connections.  The outside position shouldn’t be an issue for the speedster.  Never worse than second in his six dirt races, he deserves a long look.  The big question is the same one as several in here: He’s not only trying a stakes for the first time, he’s trying to make the jump from allowance to a Grade I stakes.

Summary.  Disgruntled old handicappers notwithstanding, there are a couple longshots with legitimate shots.  Lifeless Pulp and Smackzapper appear to be threats.  Among the favorites Sahara Desert and Cat Creeper look dangerous.