Tight Betting in Delpenn Sponsored Grade 3
This week Eastern Kentucky see the DelPenn residency out in force for a series of their sponsored races, many of which are open only to residents, However, before the internal battle becomes serious, we have a graded feature preceding those challenges. The Delpenn Mirrors Keeneland (we must accept the BTB’s naming division’s decision here) is a seven furlong dirt sprint for three year old fillies. Open to the entire sim, it carries Grade 3 status, a purse of $125,000 and, despite the sponsors generously opening the race to a field of twenty; sadly we’ve attracted a line up of just nine runners. On a more positive note, however, is the quality of the field. We couldn’t have hoped for a more evenly balanced group of fillies. With equal favorites at 9/2, eight of the nine in single figure odds, and the outsider at just 11/1, this really is a race of many chances
The early market this week is:
9/2 – Stormspector. Oligarchy
5/1 – High Spirits, Bassett Girl, Blackjack Henny
6/1 – Unexpecting
7/1 – Storm
8/1 – Sage Royale
11/1 – Day Off
Looking through the field in racebook order:
The inside gate will be occupied by Unexpecting, a winner of three from eleven and of more than a quarter of a million dollars in stakes. At her best she’s beyond any doubt a second to none chance here, but of major concern to both connections and punters this week is the trough she has found herself in recently. Although racing consistently, and more than paying her way, she’s been to the races on seven consecutive occasions now, without going home a winner. For a filly who won three of her first four runs, that has to be of major concern. Is she just that tiny bit shy of stakes class? Perhaps she’ll put that theory away this week. A daughter of Pleasantly Perfect, she’s out of the extremely talented Jennifer’s Seas (Seattle Slew / Mr. Prospector), a winner at both Grade 1 and Grade 2 level. In perhaps a cruel twist of fate, the dam’s first four progeny, including Unexpecting, have all registered black type placings, but not one of them has taken home a major prize in a stakes race. Trainer Sdmf8, a member of the sponsoring Delpenn residency, will be hoping to eradicate that statistic here. She’ll be ridden by a competent rider, and her inside barrier should prove handy but not vital, in that it should enable her to take a nice sit behind the line which will almost certainly form a charge for early prominence.
In gate 2 we find Stormspector, another of the lightly raced, capable runners with still a lot to prove. A veteran of just five starts, and a winner of just the solitary maiden, she has nevertheless shown plenty of promise in her brief career. A close look at her formline throws up a host of contrasts. The 97 speed rating she posted two starts back is good enough to justify a tilt at this, while the fact that that was not good enough to win a NWL2 allowance is cause for concern. She’s never missed the podium, including a third in a stakes race last time out. Balance that against the generally small fields she’s met (the stakes race had five runners) and it sort of negates the good news. The thing I like best is that she’s retuning to sprinting for just the second time, having tasted her sole victory at her only previous short trip. She led last time out before being collared late (a tactic that may not work here, with so many natural leaders in the race), but she doesn’t need to lead, as evidenced in her debut race. The barrier affords her jockey (not having a good year thus far) every opportunity to determine tactics. Stormspector is a superbly bred scratchbred daughter of Storm Cat / Mr. Prospector / Buckpasser, raced in the Balata colors of her breeder, Titleist. Bred to be anything, she’s a real enigma in this event, the oddsmakers are pricing her on the undoubted potential and although I’d like to see a bit more success on the form card before recommending her at this level, she’s a genuine contender.
Barrier 3 holds High Spirits, a filly boasting impeccable form, having been victorious in ungraded stakes races at each of her last three trips to the track. Her 60% win strike rate (six from ten) is the best of any runner contesting this race, and of her four other runs, she’s finished second three times. It’s the one other run, however, which causes just a tad of consternation. It was the only time in her career thus far, where she’s lined up against graded opposition. And it’s the only time in her career where she’s been found wanting. Was it just a one off hiccup? Connections will be hoping so, and she’s done more than enough since to warrant another step up to this higher standard. High Sprits is a daughter of Singspiel, based on Urban Empire (Empire Maker / A.P. Indy), a maiden from fourteen starts. Trainer Paydirt41 has already banked more than $300,000 in excess of the progenitor’s lifetime earnings, and it’s only early days yet. With a number of natural leaders drawn wider, jockey P. McGuann will probably elect to settle just behind the leaders, in perfect position for a late strike. In a race of many chances, none of the opposition can claim to have better overall credentials or better lead up form.
From 4 comes Bassett Girl, the most experienced runner in the race with sixteen starts under her belt, a dozen of which were undertaken in her juvenile year. With four stakes wins and a couple more black type podium finishes on her scorecard, she’s no stranger to quality racing, and that experience may bode well for her chances this weekend. Totally irrelevant to her chances here, but interesting nonetheless, is the pattern she’s developed over the last dozen or so races. After winning maiden, allowance and stakes at her third, fourth and fifth career runs, she’s since greeted the judge in every third race. Using that totally stupid logic, she should get beaten this week and be a sure thing next time she steps out. But retuning to a bit of sanity, she’s a most capable runner and one of the real chances in this race. Owned and Bred by Jockster, Bassett Girl is a daughter of Woodman, and is the first progeny of the underperforming Turcat (Turkoman / Storm Cat). Fortunately she inherited far more of her dams bloodline potential than her racetrack ability, as, sadly, mum had precious little of the latter, winning just one from twenty two and ending her racetrack career in cheap claimers. There are three runners in the race the race likely to be instructed to lead, and this filly holds a potential advantage there in that she’s drawn the closest of the trio, and so may well gain the advantage of the early rails run. Any sort of prizemoney this week will take her winnings through the 200k barrier and a huge slice of the pie will not surprise.
Barrier 5 is the starting place for Storm E Mesa, a filly who will be searching to recapture early form and halt a somewhat disappointing streak of three runs without a podium finish. On the positive side of the ‘current form’ ledger, are the standards of opposition she’s faced in those three runs, and the not so embarrassing losing margins in her last two. She drops significantly in class here, having last appeared six weeks ago in the G1-California Oaks, where she was beaten four and a half by Rattyburg. A similar margin was wanting when she debuted for the year in the G2-Yanta Snez Stakes, on that occasion behind perhaps the sim’s brightest rising star, Miscalcuation. Going back one more start, we can forgive her only try on rain affected going, as it clearly did not suit her. In two of the three runs prior to that she met, and finished behind Sage Royale, which must be of some concern to connections this weekend. A daughter of Sky Mesa from Raiders Wedding (Secret Claim / Storm Cat), bred and raced by Bmr003, she boasts a black type win and three Graded podium finishes from her eleven career runs so her class is not in doubt. She’ll appreciate dropping back from the ultimate level of racing, and with an excellent jockey, plus her swooping style of racing in what could prove a helter skelter early charge, I feel the early odds may be selling her short. Top value.
Oligarchy takes her place in barrier 6. A dual stakeswinner, registering her second black type win two starts back, she’ll be hoping to take the next step here. Of some concern to her stable will be the graded form she has retuned at her two attempts at the higher standard. Back in December she found herself totally out of her depth when second last in the G1-Movieland Starlet won by Black Flag Flying. Far more encouraging, however, was her most recent racetrack appearance four weeks ago. Although she came home in seventh place in the G3-Cadoka Stakes, she was just four and a bit lengths behind Sainte Chappelle, finishing alongside Luzerne (an early nomination for this), and only half a length astern of third placegetter Blackjack Henry. The early oddsmakers have clearly noted that run for the excellent effort it was, and have installed her on the top line of the market. Oligarchy is a scratchbred daughter of Speightstown / Raise a Native / Boldnesian, bred and raced by Ovidius. She’s one of several who may be seeking the early lead, a minor concern, as if too many jockeys decide they have to have the front, she may suffer from the overuse of early energy, leaving herself at the mercy of the swoopers. Having said all that, she’s totally earned the respect shown in the morning line, and is a genuine chance.
Blackjack Henny alights from barrier 7. She’s a lightly raced filly on the up, and following successive thirds in ungraded and Grade 3 races, she’s knocking on the door of black type success. Appearing at the races for just the seventh time here, she stamped herself as a filly with a future by winning three of her first four outings. She stepped up to graded racing for her most recent outing, and despite her solid career formline, ran around at the longest price of her career, albeit a price still in single figures. She proved that she has a future at this higher level, running third behind Sainte Chappelle in the G3-Cadoka Stakes. She finished ahead of this week’s fellow competitors, Luzerne and Oligarchy in that race two weeks back, and in running third kept intact her perfect record of podium finishes. A Chorwon trained daughter of Henny Hughes from
Gate 8 is the starting position for Day Off, as she tackles graded racing for the first time, having been competitive in three ungraded stakes races in her five start career to date. Her black type record provides both the confidence and the concern as she lines up here. She’s yet to miss the podium, but her two wins came in maiden and allowance races. Her ungraded stakes record reads one second and two thirds. The finishing positions are encouraging. The field sizes (four, seven and seven) are discouraging. Perhaps the best cause for confidence is the 93 speed rating she recorded last start, indicating that she’s still on the improve, and within striking distance of the sort of performance which will be needed here. A scratchbred daughter of Harlan’s Holiday / Gulch / Silver Hawk, racing for owner breeder Goldnmarlin, Day Off still has questions to answer, but looks to have the ability to answer them. Connections will expect her to drop out and await the late surge, hoping the jockey can advance his poor recent record. I’m not ready to pick her among the top selections, but a big run will not surprise. Connections will be sure to support her at the generous odds, and if you like her, don’t be put off, as just a small amount of natural improvement puts her right in the mix.
Sage Royale jumps from the outside gate, and since each of her four wins were ‘pillar to post’ affairs, she’s sure to be looking for a clear lead in the early stages; a daunting task given the barrier draw and the speed of a couple drawn closer. She was given a spell following a solid juvenile season, and returned to the track a fortnight ago with a soft win in a
Summary: No matter what I write here, do not be deterred if you have a fancy for any of the runners, as they all have genuine credentials. There really isn’t an ending scenario which could be called surprising. Unexpecting has ability and will get the ideal spot in running from the inside. Stormspector, Blackjack Henny and Day Off are lightly raced and showing plenty of talent. High Spirits has an impeccable formline. Bassett Girl knows plenty about this level of racing. Storm E Mesa drops back from the absolute peak of competition. Oligarchy just keeps running good races and Sage Royale has proven herself competitive at the top
Selections:
High Spirits – Top 2 nine times in ten races
Sage Royale – Last start winner. Third in the Breeders Bowl. Over the odds.
Storm