Plenty of Chances in Final Event in California
A field of a dozen colts will face the starter this week in California, ready to do battle over nine furlongs on a firm turf course, all seeking the major share of the $250,000 on offer in G2-Chem Lawn Special. Open to all three year olds, it promises to be an exciting event. With the favorite, King of Indy, listed at 3/1 in early markets, and with half the field priced in single figures, and some promising up and comers at slightly longer odds, we look to have an evenly matched bunch of contenders.
The early market this week is:
3/1 – King of Indy
5/1 – Another Dud
6/1 – Machs Band, Septic Squall
9/1 – Raging Menace, Against A Tyrant
10/1 – L Bundy, Irish Mandolin, Chromium
16/1 – Galilainey
20/1 – VVVV
61/1 – Flower Account
Looking through the field in betting order:
# 8 – King of Indy – 3/1. – Has earned top billing in this race by continuing to race competitively against this quality of opposition. With two wins from his last three, he comes into this off a win last start in the G3-Theregoesmyhero Stakes three weeks ago. That was over the same nine furlong trip he faces here and he now looks ready to take on these longer events, after appearing to be more of a sprinter earlier in his career. Bred by trainer Roberto, he’s a son of King of Kings from A.P. Reef (A.P. Indy / Mill Reef), herself victorious in ten stakes races. Only once in his dozen starts has he gone home without a check, and he’s earned the top line in the betting with his high standard of consistent performances
# 12 – Another Dud – 5/1. – This badly named colt jumps from the outside gate, which will be of no concern, given his tendency to drop right out in the early stages. Extended to route racing just four starts back, he took to the longer distance immediately with an impressive third in the G2-Phenom Stakes at his final juvenile outing. He began his three year old program with a fifth in the G3-Roasting Weaniees Stakes, a sprint, before stretching out with two convincing victories in ungraded stakes at his most recent trips to the track. A scratchbred son of Shirocco / Secretariat / Deputy Minister, he looks sure to continue to improve for his trainer / breeder Jkj4, especially over these longer journeys. He’s the only runner in the race to ever have registered a triple digit speed rating.
# 1 – Machs Band – 6/1. – Returning to graded racing for the first time since putting in the only bad run of his career, this colt has more than proved himself worthy of another try, with a string of solid efforts at the lower level. A winner of five from seven, there seems to be no reason why he won’t go on to be a genuine force. There is the Graded question still to be answered, due to that uncharacteristic failure at his third run, but with three wins and a third since, twice winner in ungraded stakes, he surely now has the maturity to progress. Trainer / breeder Doctahg1 created Machs Band by using Dixieland Band over the stakeswinning horse Machpasser (Maciavellian / Ela-Mana-Mou). He likes to sit just off the pace and, from the inside gate, should have no trouble securing a handy position in the run, placing himself ideally for the final sprint.
# 7 – Septic Squall – 6/1. – He comes into this in career best form, having put together consecutive wins, finally overcoming the distance query which has surrounded him prior to his most recent effort. In two earlier route attempts, he’d run even races, but had been unable to finish off the contests. Last start in the owner restricted Queensland Derby Stakes, he not only overcame the hoodoo, but cruised home with almost six lengths to spare. The opposition he faced that day may have been far short of the standard he meets here, but he couldn’t have been more impressive in victory. Bred and trained by Sozzled, he’s a son of Septieme Ceil, from Bart’s Sum (Summer Squall / Alleged), a dual stakes winner. He’ll look to settle around midfield before powering home late.
# 3 – Raging Menace – 9/1. – This colt is something of an enigma. At his best he’d be a worthy favorite in this field, but it’s been five races without a podium finish since he looked a worldbeater in the making with his comfortable two and a bit length victory last October in the G1-Knick Knack Juvenile. Bred and trained by Teerades, he’s a son of
# 9 – Against A Tyrant – 9/1. – A typical Lenny prepared runner, this colt has been given plenty of time to mature before being tipped in at the deep end. A winner of six from eight, and the last five in succession, he’s been afforded a perfect preparation for Graded racing. His speed ratings may be a tad shy of those being returned by some of this week’s rivals, but there are no bonuses for winning margins, and he’s been winning with authority on a regular basis. A scratchbred son of Bernadini / Kris S. / Alydar, his capable jockey will be looking to fly the gates and run the opposition off their legs. Stable supporters are guaranteed a mighty run for their 9/1, and I may well be in the queue with them.
# 2 – L Bundy – 10/1. – The unknown quantity. It’s hard to a colt with only the maiden trophy in the cabinet, when up against established graded quality opposition, but then it’s also hard to underrate a runner who has had just the two starts, and was gallant in defeat against stakes horses at his second run. A scratchbred son of Deep Impact / Smart Strike / Rainbow Quest, trainer / breeder Marusha obviously has a high opinion of this fellow. He’s shown enough in his two runs to warrant plenty of respect, and the oddmakers are not looking to take too many risks with his chances. Like many, I’m adopting a wait and see attitude. He won’t get my money, but I won’t be in the least bit surprised to see him put in a mighty effort.
# 5 – Irish Mandolin– 10/1. – Another lightly raced colt taking a big step. A most impressive winner of his first two, he was far from disgraced when beaten into second, less than a length behind the winner in his only other run. He hasn’t raced beyond allowance level in his three runs, but he returned a speed rating of 96 four weeks ago. He has the advantage of still improving that speed number every time he steps out, and the winner here could well come home in a sub triple digit number. A son of Night Shift, his dam Taylor Coral (Affirmed / Executioner) was a maiden from nine starts. This Mortician bred and raced colt is clearly the stand out from her three to date, and has a bright future ahead of him. He won’t want to get as far out of his ground as he did last start, and with a good run he’s certainly capable of featuring in the finish.
# 11 – Chromium – 10/1. – An eight start member of the Super conglomerate, this colt hasn’t tasted victory since his maiden win at his second start. That’s the bad news. He did follow that run up with a pair of seconds in ungraded stakes races, but his form since then has not been overly impressive. In his last four his closest finishing margin has been five lengths, when running fifth in an ungraded stake. A son of Seeking the Gold, based on the four times stakes placed Dance Legacy (Deputy Minister / Nijinsky), he’s returned a couple of handy speed ratings, but there’s nothing in his recent past to suggest he’s a genuine threat here.
# 6 – Galilainey – 16/1. – A winner of two races, and stakes placed in the other from just three runs on the grass, this colt appears to have snuck in below the radar. There’s plenty to like about the way this lightly raced runner is progressing. His first run established his lack of like for the dirt (and in the great sim anomaly, has also contributed to his overly generous price here) but his progress since shifting to the grass has been most impressive. Improving his speed ratings with every run, he’s also working nicely through the classes, and it won’t take much more improvement in this encounter for him to pose a serious threat. Bred and trained by Bobbykhw, he’s a son of Galileo from Lainey’s Mast (Cozzene / Graustark), a talented winner of nine from just twenty one starts. He’ll settle beyond midfield and should be storming home. A great across the board bet.
# 10 – VVVV – 20/1. – Another lightly raced colt who is showing enough improvement to justify more respect from the oddsmakers. Although he’s only raced up to allowance level, he’s won two of them and importantly, they were at his last two trips to the track, underlining his current good form. Like most handicappers, I prefer to see a horse have some exposure to at least stakes competition before taking on graded company. Some horses simply cannot make the transition. Having said that, his speed figures are improving markedly, his current form is top notch and if he can take the step, he represents great value for those supporting him this weekend. Bred by trainer Escena, he’s a scratchbred son of
# 4 – Flower Accont – 61/1. – What can I say? The bookies have got it right, although most punters would probably want a zero added to the 61 before they’d be tempted. While most of his opposition is regularly pumping out speed figures in the 90’s, this bloke boasts a career best of 77 from ten starts. Still, there are always the guaranteed stakes points for Chloedawg2’s scratchbred son of Flower Alley / Nureyev / Private Account.
Selections: – I make no apologies for chasing value here, as I think there’s plenty of value to be had. Galilainey has flown right under the radar at 16/1. He’s the top pick. 9/1 for a winner of five straight makes Against A Tyrant worth the place ticket. Another Dud boasts the only triple digit speed rating on the form card, and therefore gets the third selection.