Four-way favoritism means no lock for the Florida Derby
Some years the Florida Derby features a clear favorite. That’s what we saw in 2004 as Granhee went off at 2.7-1, and last year with the 3.7-1 Degoldenstorm. More often however, the favorite is at 4-1 or higher. This tenth edition of the Derby, however, is the first time the favorite has been at such long odds,which sets up a very intriguing betting opportunity for racefans.
The Florida Derby, as usual, is a G1 event for 3yo colts and fillies going 9f on the main dirt course of the Florida racetrack. It carries one of the higher purses for this level of stakes, a nice $750k. For the second straight year it serves as a Derby Lock Prep, one of eight win-and-you’re-in races that allow the winner a free pass to the Bluegrass Derby in May. The stakes record, set by Velvet Blush in 1999 in a swift 1:48.1, has yet to be exceeded despite some very good recent races.
Vor’s Vorreedi drew lucky post #1 , and managed a decent 10% win-rate jockey in C Stubbs, yet is being ignored with a 22-1 morning line. The Bernardini colt represents the GR Simsters, and he’s got a beautiful 7:5-0-1 record to his credit. The only blemish was his stakes debut in November; we can safely conclude the colt severely dislikes the mud after that non-effort. On a fast track he picked up his first stakes win last time out with a healthy 98SP; the 2-length win for the mile stakes was superb. Two major questions face the colt here: distance and class. Ignoring that lousy muddy race, the colt has yet to go longer than a mile. Ignoring the same race, Vorreedi has yet to run in two stakes, let along in graded company. Still, fast horse, bred for some distance, and he’s clearly improving with age.
Representing the Great Plains residency is Route Six Six, a Pulpit colt owned by Chibound. Route absolutely needs the lead to win, so within a few strides of the break we’ll know if he can get it done. He’s lucky to break near the rail from the 2 spot, which will help him stay in front should he be clear after the mad scramble from the gate. Route should enjoy making his second consecutive start in Florida with the same jockey, R Case. This will be his second graded start (he went in the G1 Fountain of Ute last out), and he should improve off the 97SP he earned previously. Not sure he can really handle the distance, as both Route’s 8.5f tries have seen him lead then fade, but he could prove fast enough to hang on for a slim win. 8-1.
The 3 horse got the looks of a true Derby horse. Fleet Daisy, a son of Afleet Alex, did everything right as a juvenile, winning at the Breeders Bowl and earning himself an Eclipse for trainer Opus. In one start at 3, the colt has done everything right, picking up a third in the tough Vermont Lovers 9f G1 last month. He lost by only a half-length, posting a 97. That was his first race off layoff, so my expectation is for a huge race here. The colt may find this race a bit too short, given how he loves to close late but fast. An able Minnesota residency representative, surprisingly he’s 14-1. Have to love him here, and he’s getting some of my betting cash.
One of our four 7-1 faves is De Fu. The Dehere colt went six months winless, but fixed that small problem last out with an excellent G1 score in the Ring Of Fire. Run by the Minnesota stable, he also reps the Minnesota residency. That G1 win was at 7f, however, and De Fu has yet to win going longer than a mile. Oh, he is a winner at a flat mile, but in two tries at 8.5, and one at 9f, no go. What i do like about the colt is his preference for sticking around at the end even when he’s run out of steam; those 8.5f+ tries all saw him finish sixth or better, beaten by less than five each time. Fast for sure, as that 107 last out clearly shows, but distance is a big question.
The Fountain of Ute winner, Roman Plutonium, starts at 8-1 from gate 5. Leiter’s Roman Ruler colt is the third Minnesota runner in the field, and so far potentially their best bet for a Florida win. Plutonium has just two two-turn starts, but an enviable record of one win and a second , plus SPs of 98 (for the loss) and 104 (for the win). The colt clearly enjoyed the stretch out, and shows every indication of agreeing with 9f too. He’s got a lot of early speed, but probably won’t drive for the lead until the half pole or so.
Finally, a non-Minnesota runner! Ohio Thoroughbred Racing has Lucky’s Carpet running for the Naracing2 stable. The Kingmambo colt’s connections had to be sorely disappointed yet elated when they saw the speed figures for Lucky’s last race. On the one hand, he went second in the All Saints Derby Lock Prep, an excellent showing. On the other hand, the 107SP wasn’t enough to win. A 107 would be among the highest speeds of all 3yos, but Lucky just had to run up against that freak of nature Trading Jack. Lucky should find a slightly easier time of it here, but can he wheel back on three weeks successfully? The second of our 7-1 quartet.
Running under the GR Simsters banner is the 7 horse, It’s Rather Cloudy. To be running in a state known more for it’s sun than its clouds seems a bit odd, but then trainer Borrow has not taken a traditional path with the Pivotal filly. Cloudy swept her first four starts, going from maiden through G2 company handily as she stepped up in distance In G1 company against the ladies, she’s twice struggled, however, finishing tenth in the Sunny Florida and fifth in the California Oaks. In the Oaks she was closing well to finish just 3 1/2 out, so i think she’ll like getting the extra sixteenth here. She closes from the clouds, which can only help given the likely blistering pace up front. But is she fast enough? Top speed of 95 is good, but not good enough in this crowd. Still, gutsy filly could make a play at the wire. 13-1 odds.
The 8 horse, Rahfleet, has just a maiden win on his record, and that was last May. He is twice-graded placed, but the last of those was September. This will be a severe challenge for Millerfar4’s colt. The trainer is one of the few unaffiliated ones running in the top ranks, making the colt unique in yet another way. The son of Northern Afleet has closed in every start, each time (except that first) running out of room to get his nose (or really, any body part) in front. Could be 9f is his sweet spot, or could be we’ll see this boy running in the New Yorker. Nonetheless, with a top SP of 98, he can’t be ignored. 12-1.
Our third 7-1 entrant, Listening, runs for Queensland resident Foxvbullet. The aptly-named Eavesdropper colt made up over nine lengths in the final quarter to run second in the Fountain Of Ute. The 102SP was his best yet, and the performance was strong enough to merit some serious looks from racefans. Should like the extra distance, and will enjoy the clear sailing at the back of the pack during the early going. Got a solid jockey in M Wright, but the colt is still nw3l eligible, and still has yet to win a stake of any level. However, he’s stakes placed in every try, so you know he’ll want to be making waves at the wire.
Magical Danz spent the winter in graded company, but dropped back for an easy allowance score last out as a refresher. The Kalanisi colt runs for the Magicflute stable, residing at Pastures of Green. Danz has five wins from 10 starts, four of those sprinting. But hey, he’s only routed twice, that allowance at a mile, and the 9f Vermont Lovers G1. The latter was a dismal effort finish-wise, as he ran a tiring ninth. Could blame the 6 week break, or could blame the distance, or could blame the stronger routing powers that beat him. He did only lose by 2 3/4, after all. Danz needs to be close to the front, if not right on the lead, to have a hope. 11-1, with a top speed of 101.
Will Fallen God prove to be Lenny’s second lock prep winner? Running for the Fairhaven1 stable (a GR Simster resident), Fallen God has three wins from four dirt starts. The most recent is the G2 Minnesota Derby Trail Special, which he won by a half-length with a good 102SP. Undefeated at 9f, you have to like this mid-closing/stalker-type colt. His parentage, by Montjeu out of a Kingmambo mare, lends a nice mix of stamina and speed. 12-1 odds.
Post 11 features Sunset Mesa, trained by Twoofus2, another GR Simsters resident. The SKy Mesa colt is a G3 winner sprinting, but has yet to try two turns. Mesa’s longest race to date was the G1 Ring Of Fire, a 7f affair that the colt finished fourth in. He was moving up at the end, and posting a new high SP of 100 suggests he’ll be a bit better longer. This isn’t the easiest place to make such an attempt, but the trainer is known for her willingness to push horses, and for the successful outcomes.Hard to predict the colt’s actions: will he use his speed and stalk the pace? Will he sit back and back a fast closing run? Will he show up at all in his first G1? 11-1.
The 12 horse is sired by a horse doubtless unfamiliar to many players. Gold To Gold is a son of Country Gold, who is by Summer Squall. Graywolf4’s colt is also unaffiliated with any residency. GTG has 10 starts in him, two of which were wins and five more were placings. It’s funny, his first win was debut,a nd his second was last out. Let’s pray #3 doesn’t take another 10 starts. GTG is stakes-placed a couple times, but his only graded try ended in a thirteenth place. Has popped 90 twice, but that’s now nearly 20 points slower than the highest of this bunch. Will need a huge improvement to make a difference here. Some rest might help future performance; this will be his third start in March.
The final 7-1 cofave drew the far outside post. Gratest, trained out of the Theatrical barn, ran nicely in the Fountain Of Ute last out. The Congrats colt earned his # 8 ranking through a G2 win in October, a second in the G1 Movieland, and assorted other excellent races. He prefers to run several lengths off the pace, but can drop a bit farther back if needed. Amazing thing about this colt is he’s undefeated on grass, and darn good there based on that one win. When he turned back to dirt, he ran third in the Fountain, just under three lengths out of the win should enjoy 9f, and doubtless can exceed that 100SP. Oh, and can you believe this is yet another Minnesota horse? They loaded the field!
So we have four Minnesota entrants, three running for the GR Simsters, two unaffiliated, and the rest all represent individual residencies. Thirteen runners are colts, with one filly filling out the field. Four horses are at 7-1, and two share longshot status at 22-1. Can we pick a winner? I’m going for a horse with something in common with the past: Fleet Daisy. Daisy, as a Breeders Bowl winner, may well carry on Degoldenstorm’s tradition of winning the Florida Derby. Their running style are nothing alike, yet I like Daisy’s race prep quite a bit and think the colt can pull off the big win at long odds.