Big Race Preview 3532

This crazy week had a total of eight grade one races. These are the non Dubai grade ones this week featuring several interesting match ups.

Race: 3532.0615 Orange Blossom – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Arkansas
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

This is one of the early season great racing events for older fillies and mares. While many runners are in Dubai this week the only grade one for fillies and mares is here in the states. We have co favorites in Pravda and a Fire Inside.

Pravda was a grade one winner last year at three. She made a run in the Bluegrass Oaks last year but never really carried that form the rest of the year. She would add a grade three win and a very fast second in another grade three in the last part of last year. Pravda did make a run in the Breeder’s Bowl but was a non factor in that event. This year she has started off with back to back wins a grade three and a listed stakes win. This year she is running much faster and steps back up to the grade one level. She is a stalker so look for her to stay close to the pace early and make a bid in the stretch.

A Fire Inside has found her best form at age five. She has been a very solid filly her whole career but in her recent races she has now posted a couple of 110+ speed figures. Those came against listed stakes level opponents and she has not shown the ability to do that at the graded level. Even in her last three races she had a big figure, attempted a grade three and ran solid to finish fourth, and then ran a big figure in a listed stakes. It could be a class level but you should respect any runner capable of the fast speed figures. She stalks or is within striking distance in the early stages making her run in the stretch.

Breeder’s Bowl Distaff winner Sweet Sister Mercy is one of several horses at eight to one on the morning line. She is not favored here because she bombed in her two starts after the Breeder’s Bowl Distaff. She took some time off and made her 2008 debut a few weeks back. She ran a good third only three quarters of a length from the winner. She looks to be refreshed but her deep closing style could leave her with too much to do especially when the favorites like to stalk and pounce.

Race: 3532.0614 Oaktree Handicap – Grade I – $750,000
Track: Arkansas
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

Most of the big boys in the older division are on the other side of the world this week. Mambo Bones opted to stay put and hopefully catch an easier field of runners in Arkansas. He is coming off of three very nice races where he came up short each time. It will not be easy for him however. He is a deep closer and that puts him in trouble in a lot of races. He does not face the same caliber of runners in this race but any one of his rivals are capable of running a huge race.

Halo Me Down is going to throw down the pace in this event. He is riding one hell of a speed figure streak where he has posted a 110+ speed figure in six straight races. He has won four of those six races in gate to wire fashion. In his only grade one try he was challenged early not getting the lead and he finished seventh. If you see him jump from the gates and get to the lead he could continue the agony of Mambo Bones.

Winter Morn is a lightly raced five year old that has been pumping out some serious speed figures. He has never finished off the board in fourteen career starts. He was very impressive in a grade two win last September at this distance. He has faced listed stakes rivals in each of his starts after that and is running some nice speed figures. Last time out he put up a 112 speed figure winning a listed stakes. He is a threat to come from just off the pace. He will get first run on Halo Me Down if he cannot keep up the pace.  

Race: 3525.0515 Explosive Bet Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Louisiana
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Turf

Only eleven runners enter into the Explosive Bet Stakes. Many other turf runners are in Dubai this week. Rock Ballad is the morning line favorite and rightfully so. He took the grade one Delpen Mile back in December and followed that up with a grade three win at this distance in the Strange Brew Turf Handicap. He has the versatility to run in sprints all the way up to a mile and an eighth. His speed figures have been out standing recently. He will near or on the early pace and could be very tough to catch in the stretch.

Ollie’s Quest is a seven year old still going strong. He has been running some great races recently as he earned a second place finish last time out in a grade three and earned a third place finish the race before that in a grade two. His speed figures have been very solid as well posting a couple of 110+ speed figures. This seems to be his preferred distance. Ollie likes to come from off the pace so look for him toward the back in the early stages making a run in the stretch.

Otto Oh No might be ready to rise back to the level of brilliance he showed last summer. Last summer he ran a dazzling race winning a grade two with a 118 speed figure. He followed that up with a grade one win in Michigan and a runner up in the Windy City Turf Classic. His form fell off after his Windy City run so he took a little extra time off. He has come back strong in his two starts this year winning back to back allowance races pretty easily. The speed figures are not great but they did not have to be look for him to be a player in the stretch.

Race: 3525.5415 How Are You Gentlemen Cup – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New South Wales
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Turf

The Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly Turf winner Meisque’s Gold is the morning line favorite. She has been solid since her Juvy win adding a grade three and a grade one race to her collection of graded success. She had to settle for third last time out in a grade one try where she ran a pretty good race but just got beat by a faster filly that day. She has still not finished off the board in any of her career starts and looks good to make a run in the Guineas this year. She will be stalking the early pace and should put forth another honest effort.

Enter Shikari has the kind of running style to give the favorite a fit. She has won all four of her turf starts including three listed stakes wins. This is her first start at the graded level but she seems placed well to make some noise. She has speed, very dangerous speed. She rockets from the gates and has not carried a lead shorter than four and a half lengths into the stretch in any of her turf races thus far. The favorite will likely be closer than that this time around and should make for an interesting stretch battle.

Crime Beat is a filly that knows her way to the winner’s circle. She has won seven of her nine career starts. She won a grade three race two races back and a grade one race prior to that. The only knock really is that she has not posted dazzling speed figures. She looks a bit slower than the favorites but based on her winning percentage I do not think that means much. She tried a longer distance last time out which will probably on help her to move forward in this race. She has been on and off the pace but I suspect she will probably be off the pace today making a run into the stretch.