Sand Castle Classic: Return of a champ, or new kid on the block?
It’s March, and that can only mean one thing in the sim: The return of the game’s richest race. The Sand Castle Classic, site of big wins and huge upsets, returns for the ninth straight year. As if the prospect of taking home the trophy for Dubai’s biggest race isn’t enough, the winner’s share of the $6 million purse once again draws the cream of the older dirt classic division to the desert.
The Sand Castle Classic is a race loaded with sim history. The first edition, way back in 2000, was won by Colonel Prospector by a huge 4 1/2 length margin. The next year Stormy Prospector won by a similar margin (4 1/4) and cut a full 1.2 seconds off the final time. Pleasant Nijinsky couldn’t quite continue the oneupmanship in 2002, but his final time of 2:01.1 was still darn good. The first sub-2:00 Classic happened in 2003 as Teddy’s Slew won by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:59.4 to set the stakes record. Pondal’s win in 2004 was the first wire-to-wire, though he did it in a pedestrian 2:02. Bringing the time back down, Call Of The Wild II won in 2:01 flat in 2005. Solar Song took the 2006 edition by three lengths in a tick over 2 minutes. The most recent running was perhaps the most impressive visually, as Ermington Pegusus won by five big lengths.
The 2008 field brings back the two most recent Classic winners in Solar Song and Ermington Pegusus, plus an even dozen more horses looking to topple the most dominant classic duo the sim has ever seen. Among those twelve are top classic runners Gracepointe Prayer and Passing Stone, as well as super-filly Black Tuesday .
Ermington Pegusus took the Sand Castle last year by the biggest margin ever: five lengths. And that was after being down by almost 13 lengths at the halfway mark. An impressive performance to be sure, made all the more special by its place in a string of six straight graded victories. Pigeon3’s star 5yo stumbled a bit at year’s end, losing four of five, but his only 2008 start indicates the son of Sky Mesa is back in action. In January he took the Toilet Scrubber’s Anonymous by two, just like he did in 2007. The only difference was he did it two-fifths of a second faster to set a new record. The big difference between this year and last is SuperPeg has been off since January, while in 2007 he fit a big California Handicap win before heading to Dubai. With only 25 starts, the trainer may be taking the crafty approach in resting his monster for the long year ahead while letting the rest of the division exhaust themselves in too many starts. What I like about ErPeg is his massive versatility. He really does prefer to hang back and close from a distance, but he’s more than capable of staying right close to the lead when called for. 5-1 favorite.
Gracepointe Prayer was looking at the top of his game over the summer, but tailed off somewhat in the fall races. So it was with surprise and pleasure that fans of the 5yo Cryptoclearance son watched their hero set a new record in the California Handicap three weeks ago. He won by a full 2 1/2 lengths with an amazing 117SP, the best of his 28-race career. This horse sure looks like one all set to take his place as the king of the classic division for trainer Pazfour (aka Pazjazz). Still you have to question whether he’ll bounce off such a major effort. Very few horses can maintain that kind of blistering speed race to race. He’ll have to be relatively close up most of the ace to have a chance; if he’s further back than third or so at the second call, a piece of the pie might still be Prayer’s, but the win would be doubtful. 6-1 odds.
He’s only got one win in the last nine months, but Passing Stone is the most consistent classic runner in recent memory. Jimcougar’s (aka Lenny) 4yo Vindication colt has been out of the top 4 just four times in his young career. And that’s while running in big stuff, not rinky-dink allowances in Jamaica. No sir, Stone’s been picking up big paychecks by running second by a slim head in the Bluegrass Derby, third in Smackdown, winning the Travelers, finishing a great second behind ErPeg (and head of Gracepointe Prayer) in the World Cup Classic in his first start against elders, running second to Solar Song at DelPenn Champions Day, and a host of other enviable accomplishments. But oh how frustrating it must be to continually post big numbers, to handle the best of the best and still not be winning everything in sight. He’s going to turn the tables one of these days, and what a sweet victory it would be if Stone won here. Here’s why he has a fighting chance: when Stone takes the lead early, he tends to run out of steam in the stretch. If he’s outbroken and can sit with Gracepointe, he might have enough left in the stretch to hold what you will know will be a furious closing charge. 7-1 odds.
Solar Song won the 2006 Sand Castle, and raced in it last year, making him the first horse to appear in three successive Classics (as near as I can tell). In 2006 he was on top of his game, winning right and left in big stuff. 2007, not so much. He finished out the year well, but 2008 has thus far been a disappointment to trainer Squirrel4 (aka me). On one hand, he’s supremely accomplished in this caliber of race, and fits right in if you toss out the last couple starts. On the other hand, a horse running 101 in his Sand Castle prep is one I would ordinarily (and rightly so) pan. Add in that the last time he ran a comparably low number was just before the ’07 Sand Castle debacle, and my hopes are sadly not high. But oh, do I want the win, if only to push the old boy (a 6yo, from Deputy Minister’s last crop) over $15million in earnings. Watch for him to drop back 10-15 lengths by the halfway marker, and if I’m real lucky, mow down horses around the turn. 7-1, co-third betting choice.
Ih8u. Well, the trainer (aka Kaif) doesn’t hate MalachiConstant, anyway. Would be rather difficult not to like the 5yo sonof Cozzene. Constant meandered through his juvenile and sophomore seasons, findingjust a maiden win on the turf but also picking up a graded placing at 14 on themain track. Halfway through his 4yo campaign, though, he finally grew into hislong legs and started winning by good margins with healthy SPs. The Bob Woodwardwas his big breakthrough; Constant won the 9f G1 and set a new stakes recordin the process. You’d think he’d continue doing well in big stuff after that,but he went unplaced three straight grades, dropped down for a confidence-boostingallowance score, then finally hit the board again last out in the G1 CaliforniaHandicap. Constant is a tremendous closer who can be counted on to dig in inthe stretch, but he has a tendency to get going too late to be super-effective.He’s likely to be swept along with the other closers here, which might get himgoing earlier and thus put him in prime contention when it counts. 8-1 odds.
After Awesome Force’s last few starts you have to wonder if the 4yo colt wants to get back up to 12f. The hero of the 2008 Triple Jewel (wins in 2 of the 3 races earn hero status) continued to bury his foes over the summer, winning the Swamps and placing second in the Travelers to Passing Stone. He’s been fifth or better in all four starts since, including an impressive fifth in the Breeders Bowl in his first race against elders. After a long winter break, he came back in a mile G1 of all places, just getting up for fifth. He prepped for this race in a 10f listed, but lost by 9. That’s not as horrible as it sounds, as each time he’s lost by a large margin he’s promptly returned for huge wins (in the Movieland Futurity, and the Middle Jewel). Camry’s prize Awesome Again colt is among the deepest of deep closers, so don’t be surprised to see him drop all the way to the back before starting his stretch run. 12-1.
Looking at Once and Again’s last three starts, it’s no wonder Pirate (aka Kingab) took a flyer here. The Awesome Again 4yo has posted 110s or better at three different distances in respectable listed fields. The most recent was a lovely 10.5f score to beat five graded winners, including fellow starter Formulated Risk. You’ve gotta love a horse that gets better when he’s against stiffer competition. O and A did try graded company a long time ago, way back as a 2yo in a mile G3. Since then he’s not tried anything higher than a listed stake, and even at that level still only has one stakes win. I like the moxie in challenging the big boys, and respect the colt’s recent willingness to run hard. But wow, does he have his work cut out for him. He’ll probably sit 5 or so off the lead and try to steal the race by slipping around the final turn in front. 12-1 odds.
You might look at Black Tuesday and question her entry, but when you think about the record of fillies in the Classic, you take a second look at the daughter of Storm Cat. Standout filly Armed With Money showed up for the big race in 2007 and was the only horse making a serious run at SuperPeg down the stretch. She finished a superb fourth to end a streak of big wins including the 2006 Breeders Bowl Distaff. Fairhaven2’s (aka Lenny) filly has taken a different path to the desert this year than Money did last, but the Tuesday has an equally good (and perhaps better) shot at running away with top honors this year. At 10f she’s got a wonderful 5:4-0-1 record, two of those wins in G1 company. Add in the monstrous 114 she ran last month in a listed prep at 10 and you’ve got to think she’s in great shape. The cons? This is her first start against boys, just fourth against elders, and she likes to close from well back just like the big boys do. 13-1 odds.
Head Start would probably love to get one in this race. The 5yo son of Jump Start does best when he gets a swift exit from the gate and slides over to the rail for a ground-saving staking run. You’ve really got to respect what trainer 6ward (aka Terrel) has done with the horse. Head Start was taken out of a 5k maiden claimer just over a year ago, and since then has racked up four stakes wins, including the G3 Maxxed Platinum Pate Cup (where he beat both Solar Song and Gracepointe Prayer in a brilliant race up front) in January. He’s gone in graded company a few other times, with his best finish a fourth. Head Start strikes me a horse that needs a lot of luck and a somewhat smaller field to do his best; in full fields he tends to not have the tactical ability to stay clear towards the front. Still, he’s shown he’s capable of beating the best, posting big numbers (top SP of 114) and he loves the 10f distance. 13-1.
This time last year Lucky’s Capital had just established himself as the early favorite in the march to Louisville. Fast forward a year and Winorplace’s (aka Mr Lucky) 4yo colt has earned moderate success but not quite what many expected of him after displaying such brilliance early on. Despite a pedigree perfectly suited to the classic distance, (his sire With Approval and dam-sire Kris have progeny average winning distances of just over 9f), Lucky has run 10f just once, back in the Bluegrass Derby. He actually did decently, placing sixth and closing moderately. So you’d think another 10f try would be warranted in the near future, right? Guess not. He’s been hanging out in the 8-9f range, picking up a few stakes including the G3 Buckeye at 9f. I’m happy to see him get a bit longer again, but boy, this is a hard place to do it. He’ll probably settle in off the pace but toward the front of the pack, and hope he has the stamina and guts to pull off a squeaker at the wire. 13-1.
Andrew John comes into the race with a lot to prove. He’s a youngster, just six starts in him, but Sonofaus believes the A.P. Indy colt has the goods to earn win #5, and his first graded win, in the biggest race of the year. It’s a lot to ask of the 4yo, but he ran so well in the G2 Vermont Lovers 10f race last month that you have to think he just might be up to the challenge. His lowest SP ever is a 94, and with four of six at 105 or better, this is among the best starts to a horse’s career the sim has ever seen. You really have to respect the way he’s handled each new question with aplomb. In the Vermont race he dropped back farther then he ever had previously – might simply have been stunned by the higher caliber of competitors, or he may have located his best running style. Whatever caused it, the 114SP was superb, even if it was only good enough for third. Won’t have a particularly easy time on the back end with the strong runners who love to close, but hey, if he does it, he’ll have made a place for himself in the history books. 14-1.
Willyam37’s 4yo Broken Vow colt has a very colorful past performances page. A Vow To Be A Slew tends to run in special races, and he tends to run very well. AVTBAS beat up on GR Simster-restrictd company last year, winning the res Derby the 10f Smackdown race versus the best of the NWRC and Vermont, then adding in a win in the res Classic championship on Breeders Bowl day. He reminds me a lot of Solar Song in that horse’s 3yo season: destroying residency competition and starting to find his own in open company. AVTBAS hasn’t un so hot his last couple starts, finishing eighth at DelPenn in the Topicount Special but he is starting to wake back up after a break with a fourth in the Vermont Lovers race. As he makes his second start of (the short) layoff, he should be in prime condition for a big run. That 112 and strong closing run in Vermont sure supports a good effort here.
Formulated Risk has run more times since the Breeders Bowl than every other entrant. Will his eighth starts in just under six months prove too much for the 6yo son of Beat Hollow son? Trainer Karen (aka Beefcake, aka Steve) can only hope not. The horse is one of my favorites, an ex-claimer who has gone on to the top ranks under his astute owner’s guidance, continuing to knock along in big races. He’s been not exactly effective of late, doing well in listed stakes but not firing in graded stuff. Could be that 45 starts are signaling preparation for retirement. However, until his most recent start he’d run 100+ in several successive races, and was only 4 1/2 lengths out of the win on DelPenn Day. Not longer quite as good as he used to be, but you still have to respect the horse for his game efforts. 16-1.
While Lenny’s well known for bring multiple horses to big races, he still usually doesn’t bring in three of them. The Kid Stu is his last entrant, and he’s a doozy of a surprise entrant for the Lenny9 stable. The last horse to drawn in, Stu has an almost flawless record. The only smudge is a second in his second start. With that exception, it’s been a series of wins for the lightly-raced Seeking The Gold 4yo. He handled his stakes debut easily last out, winning by over three albeit in a smallish field. Going from listed to G1 company is never an easy feat, however, and based on how other young colts handle it, I have to suspect Stu will find the obstacle too difficult. But here’s his big advantage: he’s fleet of foot and looks every inch the type of horse capable of stealing the race up front. If he can’t hold out for 10 panels against the likes of this crowd, at least the rest of the runners can be assured a real pace to run at. 19-1, longest odds on the board.
Who will take home the grand prize of $3.6million and a place in sim history alongside the likes of Stormy Prospector and Call Of The Wild II? The connections of Ermington Pegusus and Solar Song know their charges face an uphill battle in securing a second win, but the former looks to be re-energized and back at the top of his game, and the latter has proven he enjoys winning when everyone (including his owner) says he doesn’t have much of a chance. Among the 4yo crew, Awesome Force already has an impressive set of trophies but has yet to win a really big race against elders, leaving something to prove. Passing Stone’s been so darn good in the last year, but is still hunting for his breakthrough against all ages. Black Tuesday, with a win, could well lock up an Eclipse with three-quarters of the year left to run. A win from A Vow To Be A Slew would remind the sim of the value and excellent nature of residency racing as a preparation for the big time, a worthwhile reminder to those who consider residency stakes not worthy of the same regard offered open races. Lucky’s Capital could really use a win to show good 3yos can really be even better at 4 years.mong the older horses, Malachi Constant could sure use a win to smooth the path to his ultimate goal: the Breeders Bowl Classic. Gracepointe Prayer needs to prove he’s really as good as that California Handicap win suggests. Head Start would demonstrate to trainers simwide that they too can, with a good eye and lots of luck, turn a cheap claimer into a champion. Formulated Risk has to be nearing retirement, but boy, a Sand Castle win would be a wonderful swan song. With three exceptions (Once and Again, The Kid Stu and Andrew John) each entrant has proved he (or she!) belongs squarely in the spotlight as the best the sim has to offer in this $6 million dollar race. Lest O and A, Stu and Andrew feel slighted, they too clearly belong among the best, but simply have yet to prove themselves on the world stage as every other entrant has already done several times over.
In reviewing the field, I find myself vacillating between three horses as my pick for the winner. Ermington Pegusus frankly scares me. While he’s proven beatable in big races lately, counting him out would be the height of folly. But, I am so very impressed with Passing Stone and his model consistency. His ability to hang in there has proven valuable in maintaining a high ranking and respect from his divisional foes. But, his bridesmaid tendencies can’t continue forever, he will eventually take center stage. Could well be here. Malachi Constant strikes me as a horse ready to kick off a brilliant 5yo campaign; with what I expect will be a multi-horse closing charge, he should be carried along to an earlier final run than normal, and should benefit greatly.