Sleepy Fan Stakes Grade II

Welcome to sunny California for todays Grade II Sleepy Fan Stakes which should give us another clue for the Bluegrass Derby. A full field of fopurteen runners todays but the morning line forecaster seems to think only a handful have a chance. One thing to note though- only 1 of the last five winners has even made it to the Derby and he finished well down the field. In fact the winners of this have generally struggled thereafter even though the race has always been won with at least a 102 sp. Lets take a look at this years race-

Has the pedigree to get a bit further but has been looking as though this might be too far. Although he won at this trip latest, he has generally been running out of steam at this trip. It may be that he just needed some races to get his strength though and if he has turned the corner stamina wise he could be a threat here.

Has won four of seven but all his wins were in bid races, although his second in a stakes last time out over this trip bodes well. Again it could be a sign he’s strengthed up and with loads of improvement left he could be another lively outsider. Will be racing just off the front and should be able to cover any moves if he’s good enough.

Another who has been running at around this trip but who has not been seeing out his races. Looks to want a 6.5-7f race as he’s now had three runs as a three year old but has still been running short. His sp’s give him an outside chance but expect him to be near the front early and then fade.

Certainly bred to get much more than this trip and indeed his last run over 9f suggested he may alrready want 12f. Had won over 8f as a 2Yo and finished second over 8.5f on his first 3 Yo start.Likes to come from well back but might not have the basic speed to catch up the best of these at the end. Watch for him in 12f races later in the year.

Bred to be a Derby runner in terms of trip but again havbing won over 8f as a 2Yo and already run several times at todays trip he has looked to want much further in his last three races. Has plenty of gradedruns though and should not be dismissed but i cant see it being his day.

Again he’s bred to get the Derby trip and pulled clear over todays trip by over 4 lengths as a 2Yo which again perhaps suggests that further may be required. His only 3Yo run is hard to assess since itwas his only try on rain affected ground. Another who has to be respected despite his odds but who may need further.

This is beginiing to sound like a broken record- bred for the Derby trip but has looked to be crying out for at least 10f if not more already.Still ran a promising 93 sp over a 7f trip that was way too short last time out and again should not be dismissed. He came up short in the Breeders Bowl juvenile but may not have been strong enough for the trip then. Rates as a real threat for me.

Has struggled in his two stakes runs and looks out of his deoth hear. A 94 sp in an allowance latest is good but it’s a big step up in class to a Grade II from allowance company. That sp gives him a shout but the class rise for me looks too much and i think he’ll struggle.

Ran some nice races as a 2Yo but looked to not see out the trip last time out over 8f. Looks more of a sprinter and i expect him to struggle today. Mat get out near the front but look for him to fade.

Very interesting at a decent price, having finished second last time out over 8f ina stakes latest. The 96 sp was very good first time out as a 3Yo and i exopect further improvement today. He is another who will generally sit near the front and again if he’s good enough he should be able to cover any moves. Bred for the trip and looks a real danger.

Didn’t do much as a two year old but rana blinder first time out as a 3 Yo running a 99sp to finish second ina stakes over 8f. His last run was disapointing, only an 89 sp over 8.5f. Either the 99 was a freak or he needs much further. Is not bred to be a marathoner so i’m forced to conclude that the first 3Yo run was a one-off monster. Still with that sp he shouldn’t be discounted but not for me today.

The morning line favourite having runa 100 sp over todays trip to win a Grade III as a 2Yo. However has not lived up to expectations so far as a 3Yo. Two runs giving a fourth then a sixth placed finish and a best sp of 95. Again he either wants much further , which may be the case being by AP Indy or he may be already past his best which can happen from two to three. Cannot be ignored but if i was his owner i’d be a bit worried.

Finished behind Bernie Ets last time and is another who looks to be a sprinter. No reason why he would turn tables on Bernie this time out and as i don’t see him winning i can’t see Traditional Start winning either. Back in trip he can be a graded winner but not over todays 8.5F.

Lots of stakes and graded runs and has won three stakes but is another who in runs over 9f this year has looked to want further. He is bred to like the turf too but has yet to be tried on the green stuff. I would expect him to stay 12f, especially on the turf so i can’t see a win today.

OVERALL

I don’t see any of the fancied runners getting the win and for me it’s between CITIUS and JUST TALK with slight preference for the latter.