Ball And Chain Bullet

ACADEMY OF LIGHT (FANTASTIC LIGHT x ROYAL ACADEMY x CADEAUX GENEREUX(GB))

A good solid turf spinter who nows appears on the downgrade. Having won multiple stakes race in her youth she has tried the occaisional Graded race without much success and has been running in allowances for her last three races. She did win one with a 97 sp but that was over the bear minimum of 4.5f. Clearly struggles at both this trip and this Grade these days and has to be opposed.

DANCE SEEKER (SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER x BLUSHING GROOM(FR))

Has been running in Graded races and indeed won a Grade II over this trip a few runs back. Put up a good consistant run of 100+ sp’s but then two of her last three have produced sp’s of less than 100 and indeed the last run was only a 96 in an allowance. At her best would have a real chance but the sudden inconsistancy is a big worry. Not today for me.

SKY BEAUTY (LEMON DROP KID x ALYDAR x STORM BIRD)
Bred to be a 9f horse she has run the vast majority of her races over sprints. In each of her recent five tries at 7f though she has either been closing at the finish or has won in the last furlong. She has been a lot less successful at less than 7f and you can’t help but wonder if she would not be better trying a mile again. Looks a stakes class horse these days and the best she can hope for today looks like a top five.

GALES OF NOVEMBER (GONE WEST x DEPUTY MINISTER x GA HAI)

Has won two allowance races recently but the 104 sp latest in a stakes race stands out above anything else she has done. Horses don’t improve after 39 runs and at five, so that last run must be taken with a pinch of salt. Even then she still looks like an allowance horse and she should struggle today.

RAHY SET GO (RAHY x MARIA’S MON x GALLANT MAN)
Has won a couple of recent stakes races and an allowance but consistanct isn’t her strength and sp’s of 100-104 in stakes (after 25 runs) should not be good enough to win a Grade I. Will be up front or just off the pace early but should find a lot of horses passing her in the last furlong. Not money today.

ALBERTA FIRE (SEEKING THE GOLD x GONE WEST x SECRETARIAT)
Another experienced runner her but she has been running sp’s which belong at this level. Her last four have all been 109 or better and included two Graded wins and a stakes win. That just about setas the standard here and a big run should be expected today. Will sit around midfield for most of the race and then come home with a rattle in the final furlong. Must be the one to beat.

WORLD OF TROUBLE(IRE) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x FAPPIANO x LYPHARD)
Bags of experience here and she has won over a million in prize money but she has started to show her age. In most of her recent sprints she has struggled for speed before getting closer at the finish and she looks like another who is crying out for a mile these days. Expect her to get behind early and she will close near the finish for a top five at best.

GOLD LOOKING (SEEKING THE GOLD x EL GRAN SENOR x RED GOD)
Has been running exclusively in stakes recently although most of those have been on dirt. She does have turf form and good stakes form at that but yet again her last threee turf runs at 7.5f left her closing like a train at the finish. Screaming for a mile and probably turf, she is another who will struggle to go the clip early. This trip will be too short for her to close as normal though and she may not even reach the top five.

VICTORY STROKE (VICTORY GALLOP x STORM CAT x VERBATIM)

TEQUILA SHOOTER (ALDEBARAN x DIXIELAND BAND x UNBRIDLED)
Has a recent Grade II win over this trip to her name but that was with a 101 sp, which normally would not be good enough to win most high level allowance races. All her other recent runs have produced nothing better than a 98 sp and she must surely struggle again today. With some of these running recent sp’s more that ten points higher than that she looks to be seeking a miracle today.

STRICKEN (DYNAFORMER x RUBIANO x STORM CAT)

Another experienced runner but another who has been running mostly in allowance company. Her best recent runs have been at 9f and indeed the extened mile looks to be her trip. She does have some speed but surely not enough to cope with a trip 3 furlongs below her best trip? Can stay up with the pace at 8-9f but that will be a lot harder at this trip and she could fall behind. Not today over this trip.

RUDY (BESTYOUCANBE x DISTANT VIEW x SOVEREIGN DANCER)
She has won fourteen of her twenty one starts and that record alone entitles her to respect in this field. She also put up a career best 112 sp in her latest run and has a recent 110 sp too. Has clearly improved this year and must be the main danger to ALBERTA FIRE today. She also likes to sit midfield which means we should see the two main protaganists going head to head from two furlongs out closing fast on the leaders. Big run expected today and nailed on for a top three.

RUNNING SCARED(IRE) (EL PRADO(IRE) x ROBERTO x RAISE A NATIVE)
She is bred to be a 10-12f horse and has won a third of her races but her best recent run was at todays trip when posting a 109 to get second in a Grade III. She has several other sp’s around that 109 recently at a variety of trips and is clearly versatile and has some class. Good enough to get a graded win but may find the top two just too strong today and will be vying for third place.

CANADIAN GOLD (TOUCH GOLD x GONE WEST x DANZIG)
Another who’s best recent ruins have come at 7.5f and another who looks to be crying out for a mile. Lots of good stakes form but the sp’s have not looked high enough for her to challenge here- especially at this trip. May close fast enough at the finish to get a top five but I can’t see anything better than that.

Overall it looks like a two horse race to me with ALBERTAS FIRE and RUDY going head to head for the win. On recent form and sp’s they are very difficult to separate but with RUDY having improved i’ll take her to get the win- just.