The Italian Derby

Group 1 $750,000

11f turf

This weekend sees a continuation of the 3yo classic racing with the Italian Derby. Derbies, Oaks and 1000/2000 Guineas are aplenty from April to July and there is an elite field assemble for this year’s edition of the Italian Derby.

The Italian Derby, held in Capanelle in early May each year is a Group 2 event however the Derbyfever version carries Group 1 status due to the higher prestige of winning a simulated Group 1.

We have a field of 14 for this year’s event, only 3 geldings and interestingly no fillies. 11 colts will do battle.

1. Outback Earl (War Front x AP Indy x Dynaformer) is a superbly bred colt trained by Vyz out of the Outback7 barn. 9:3-4-1

A handy allrounder showing ability on both dirt and turf the colt only raced on the former for his 2yo campaign and while he didn’t set the world alight in 2020 he was far from disgraced. A training masterstroke saw a surface switch to turf for his 3yo racing campaign and it yielded instant results with 3 starts all at 8.5f for 2 wins and a second. While he hasn’t stepped beyond 8.5f as yet his last start suggested he is now looking for more ground. Difficult to tell whether he will see out the 11f however the bookies have him at 6/1 and believe the Earl to be a very decent chance here.

Summary: Well bred colt loves the turf, distance the query.

2. The Mark Of Nuka (English Channel x Dawn Approach x Montjeu) is an English Classic bred colt out of the Group 1 winning mare The Mark Of Dawn. 5: 3-0-1

Trained by leading trainer Lenny out of his thethumb07barn this colt looks the real deal and don’t be fooled by the opening odds of 11/1. I expect the punters to come for him late. Bred to get the 11f every day of the week, The Mark Of Nuka has been getting better and better with each outing over further ground. When extended to 9.5f last time out in ALW3L company he showed an impressive turn of foot late to pull away by 3.5L. This win made it 3 in a row and he will look to eat up the extra 1.5f and be extremely hard to hold out. Lenny’s horses are never far away in the big races and I expect the same here. Interestingly the dam is from a Group 3 winner herself and has already produced a Group 2 winner from only 4 foals and 3 to race.

Summary: Will run out the 11f and success runs in the family.

3. All Roads (Snitzel x Galileo x AP Indy) is out of derbyfever Hall Of Famer My Role Model and is already a Group 1 winner himself. 9:4-2-0

Trained by astute horseperson Eminc, All Roads was nothing short of super last start taking out the Japanese 2000 guineas by 3L running a 109 speed rating in the process. Impeccably bred by boom Australian stallion Snitzel, All Roads should be shorter than the opening quote of 6/1. By my industry insider he is rated closer to 2/1 and even though he is by a sprinting influence stallion it would be expected with the back end and his dam that 11f will be well within his liking. One further comment is Eminc only has a small training operation by sim standards and seems to target quality over quantity.

Summary: Smart horse, smart trainer big threat.

4. Diagram Of Truth  (Galileo x Dubawi x Dansili) is regally bred out of stakes winning mare Wiring Diagram, this is her first foal. 3:1-0-1

Trained by fastnfirm the one pattern that is emerging here is that if you want to have a horse in a group 1 race you have to be able to rub shoulders with the big boys (& gals). Fastnfirm is a sim legend and while Diagram of Truth hails out of the 2wide barn it only takes a little deeper digging to see the brains behind the operation. This is a special horse. He ran super last start to post a 97 when stretched out to 9.5f and being by Galileo out of  Dubawi mare he will be wanting every single bit of the 11f come Saturday.

Summary: Don’t underestimate based on maiden winner only. This colt is the real deal.

5. Kepler Flabb (Oasis Dream x Kingmambo x AP Indy) is out of the mare Kepler Ettan who though only an allowance winner herself has been very productive in the breeding barn producing a Group 3 winner in 2013 as well as several stakes quality horses. 7:3-2-0

Trained by Marre out of the Marre1 barn, Kepler Flabb is another getting better with ground and it’s easy to see why he has been sent to Italy for a chance at the big one here. So far he has been steadily taken through his grades and well educated with a solid foundation to platform from. While he hasn’t been tested at stakes or graded level as yet he has done everything right and now stands at 3 wins from 7 career outings. After the debut in July 2020 Marre must have been tempted to send the ‘Flabb’ as he is affectionately known straight into the auction, but since then he has not looked back.

Summary: Well grounded coming through the grades, would have to be his dam’s best to win this.

6. Decorated In Gold (Decorated Knight x Stay Gold x Kingmambo) is another of our equal 6/1 favourites for the race and hails from the barns of Mrxrayz. 6:4-2-0

For those that hadn’t noticed, Decorated Knight has been surging up the 2020 sire rankings and this colt is one of the main reasons for that. Last start he weas very impressive pulling away over 9.5f by 3.25L to make it a hattrick of wins. He has taken MrXrays on an exciting ride in his short career to date never finishing worse than 2^nd and again like others here getting better with distance. Already a stakeswinner and based on a successful game he-mare this colt looks another great chance in Capanelle

Summary: Class edge MrX may just have the X factor here

7. Kivotal (Zelzal x Pivotal x Danzig) is a stakeswinner at 6.5f rated 22/1 here. 12:2-2-1

Trained by Lightng99 out of the lightng101 barn this colt had 10 2yo race starts for an impressive stakes win as previously mentioned and narrowly missed a place by 0.5L in the Group 3 The Cyborg in July. There has been 2 attempts at a mile the first being beaten by 9L in a G3 last August and the 2^nd as a lead up the derby in March this year beaten 8.25L. On the back of exposed form I couldn’t see Kivotal staying the 11f but I’m not the trainer and perhaps Lightng99 has something up his sleeve for the big dance.

Summary: Won’t get the journey but has some upside at shorter trips ahead

8. Atomic Sushi (Siyouni x Fastnet Rock x Invincible Spirit) is stakeswinning colt out of the multiple stakeswinning mare Rockbone Lass. He is her first foal. 9:4-1-1

Trained by Deyoto, head trainer of Champion Lodge and all round good guy this colt exploded last start jumping 12 speed ratings when stepping out to 9f for the first time. The win was in stakes company and although only a narrow winner, Atomic Sushi showed a turn of foot from the back that many of the others here haven’t displayed to this point in their career to reel in the field. The big query here is the trip, from a sprinting mare by a sprinting influence sire in Siyouni it would seem unlikely this colt will be able to get the 11f. Having said this the lead up run was impressive out in trip so the Sushi remains a mystery element in the race.

Summary: Will be closing hard if he can run the journey

9. Woette’s City (Masar x Street Cry X Deputy Minister) is the 2^nd foal from an allowance winning mare. The first foal was retired early due to unforeseen circumstances. 4:1-2-1

Lightly raced this colt appears on paper to be a lot handier than the first foal and must be given some serious consideration here. Last start performance stagnation at 9.5f after an impressive run beforehand at the same trip would give every indication we are looking at a horse crying out for more ground. Zeco is the brains behind this colt and hails from the Universal Racing Club and has had a solid start to the 2021 racing season thus far. Interesting to see the booking of champion jockey S L Ledwith here who must have a degree of confidence in his mount to take the reigns here, I feel the 17/1 is way overs and there will be some serious money coming for this colt who is in with a real live chance.

Summary: Something brewing here. Possibly a boilover at odds.

10. Pricing To Sell (Win Variation x Mastercraftsman x Sadler’s Wells) is our most seasoned campaigner of the field having had 14 starts and goes around equal favourite 6/1. 14:4-4-4

Trained by thebigshow we have another sim heavyweight behind the driver’s seat, a most respected Derbyfever trainer. This gelding can race handy on both dirt and turf and has had a fair go at both in his short career. The recent 2 starts have both been excellent and on turf which is a good read for this, particularly the stake win 2 starts back at 9.5f. Even though there was an improved speed figure last time out at 10f I’m feeling the run just lacked a little in the last half furlong and the 11f may be a bit above what Pricing To Sell will be comfortable with here. Feel like there are many wins to come for this boy but best distance is likely a little short than the Derby trip has an offer. BigShow will be hoping otherwise and who is to doubt him as I said earlier we have a highly respected trainer at the wheel and perhaps he’ saving his best run for the big one in Capanelle.

Summary: Hard to fault recent form but the trip may be a slight concern

11. AA Zabjoh (Johannesburg x Zabeel x Curlin) is an interesting breeding mix of both speed and staying influences as well as dirt and turf influences. 8:3-3-0

Really interesting runner and as mentioned above is a really interesting blend of genetics. New Zealand champion sire Zabeel at dam sire can never be underestimated in producing horses with staying ability on turf particularly out to 12f. Seems to have stagnated beyond a mile and although good the last 2 runs the 12^th by 18L in March this year at 10.5f is a real concern for this race. Trained by derbyking out of the armadalearms barn and hailing from the New Zealand Racing club this colt will have to run a career best race to be competitive with some of the others in this field.

Summary: Nice colt with a  bright future but trip is a concern on exposed form

12. Chando Palace (Churchill x Unbridled’s Song x Danehill) is from the Group 2 winning mare Palace of Truth. 8:3-2-1

In steps the big guns, none other than Dan the Man Given. If Lenny is trying to pinch a Derby with a colt like The Mark Of Nuka then you can be guaranteed his great mate and long time rival Given won’t be far away in trying to spoil the party. Chando Palace looks to be the real deal too, placing 2^nd in a Group 2 over 10.5 furlongs last start takes the guessing game away and is a considerable advantage to Given as compared with several trainers here in knowing that his horse will be highly likely to get the 11f trip. Last start was a career best speed rating and the extra 0.5 furlong would not be thought to be of any concern. Churchill while predominantly a speed influence, is going super in his limited time at simulated stud and the mare was a solid 9-10f horse herself. Look for him to be up on the pace, possibly even leading and will look to be the winner at some stage of the race.

Summary: Cannot underestimate this trainer. Will he be strong enough late?

13. Financially Stable (American Pharoah x War Front x Bernadini) is based on the Group 3 winning dirt horse  Roskilde Cathedral. 10:1-2-1

Many of us would like to be financially stable and perhaps trainer atthewire will be if his colt can prevail here. Our longshot of the field at 26/1 this son of American Pharoah has just broken his maiden in his final lead up race for the Derby. While the times aren’t particularly fast, it is of note that the best performances have been stretching out in trip which is a key indicator for a race like a Derby. There is some natural improvement unfolding with maturity and time as well as a nice progression with distance however Financially Stable will need to improve sharply to be competitive in this grade.

Summary: Leading trainer though may just lack a class edge here at Group 1 level.

14. Street Cry Never (No Nay Never x Street Cry x AP Indy) is a brown gelding by boom sire No Nay Never. 8:1-0-3

Beerkeg trains this gelding out of his beerbong barn and no doubt he would have been knocking the caps off the brews when this son of No Nay Never ran 3r^d in the Group 2 Knick Knack juvenile in October of his 2yo season. A flat 2 runs have since followed at 8.5f on turf and Beerkeg looks to have sent this boy to the paddock for a freshen up prior to this event. Interesting lead up for  Derby where miles in the legs may be of benefit but Street Cry Never may just do his best work fresh. Feel like this gelding may go to another level back in trip between 6.5f and 7.5f where there has already been an impressive win. The longer trip to 11f is certainly a concern but I’ll be the first to arrive at beerbong barn if this gelding can salute to enjoy a few frothies with the trainer.

Summary: If the trainer was sober when doing the race entry this could be one hell of a party.

Good luck to all runners, this promises to be a great race. Like all Derbies being able to stay the journey will be a key factor with the winner to be decided on training preparation and class when it counts. This looks to be a very open race with several stars of the future predicted to come out of it.