Brother Star Memorial promises to be memorable

Virginia keeps the focus on sprinters this week, with the third running of the Brother Star Memorial. The track is rated as firm this week, for this six and a half furlong sprint that invites all horses four years and old to take part. The race carries a $45000 purse. Last year’s event was won by the current number 33 ranked turf sprinter in the world, Indiscretion, who after surviving an early speed duel, owned the second half of the race, besting a field of eleven by two and a quarter lengths. This year’s running has drawn a field of ten four and five year old horses, including five of the top 250 ranked turf sprinters. Oddsmakers have three co-favorites, a 4/1 along with a pair at 9/2 odds. The rest of the field runs between 7/1 and 14/1 odds. Again, with relatively speaking long odds on the favorite this week, we have some good potential at the betting window. Last week we saw how easy an upset can take place in this kind of race, and we could see some excellent payouts again this week.

PP 1) Conspirator Sired by Lemon Drop Kid, Trained by super10. Conspirator is a five year old horse, who will make his thirty third career start here. He has two previous stakes wins, including one at Grade 2 level. His most recent came at around this same time last year. Over the course of his last ten, he has a record of 1-0-0-5-1 with three 100+ speeds, two of which have come back to back in his last two races. He generated the best of those, a 105.4 in his last start, a seven furlong stakes in New Hampshire where in finished a hard closing fourth in a full field. He spent his entire two year old season and the beginning of his three year old season on dirt, where he performed well, though not spectacularly. Discovering turf early in his three year old season, he responded with top three finishes in his next six races, including three wins, and has not been off the grass since. The bulk of his turf wins have come in a slightly longer race, but in this distance range, he has three top three finishes in seven tries, and has never finished worse than fourth. He runs as a midpack closer, and while his close has been fairly consistent recently, his has found himself unable to run himself out of some of the deep holes he has been put in at the half. He has some blazing speed out in front of him in this one, and will likely find himself in a deep hole again here. His speeds have been on an upward trend recently, and the shorter race helps, but it is not enough for me to recommend him here.

PP 2) All That Jive Sired by A.P. Indy, Trained by revelation. All That Jive is a nicely bred five year old horse, taking the gate for his twenty sixth career start in this race. This is his third stakes try and his first on turf, and he is still seeking that first taste of stakes glory. His last ten starts have seen him run to a 2-1-2-2-1 record, with a top speed of 105.6 coming in his last start. That run, far and away his career best, was an A4L in DC, where he closed powerfully to beat a field of nine to the wire by a length and a quarter. His career has split nearly evenly between dirt and turf, running well on both surfaces. His dirt earnings are better, though much of that came early in his career, but his speed averages are higher on the grass, especially when sprinting. This distance range has been feast or famine for him. In six tries, three on each surface, he has two wins, one on turf, and four starts where he couldn’t even collect a check. He is a midpack to deep closer, and has generally been closing well in all of his recent starts. He comes in off back to back wins, and a career best by a long margin in his last, but he historically hasn’t performed well at stakes level. If he can duplicate his last, he has a possiblity of being in the mix here, but the jump in class doesn’t bode well.

PP 3) Woodchamp(KY) Sired by Woodman, Trained by ultimate. Woodchamp is a four year old colt, and he sees action for the eighteenth time coming into this race. He has a pair of previous stakes wins, his most recent coming in a breakout performance in his last start. In his last ten starts he has posted a record of 6-1-1-0-0, with five 100+ outings, capped by a career best 108.0 in his last start. That race was a seven furlong stakes in Minnesota, where he eked out a half length victory in a very competitive field of nine. He began his career with a token dirt run where he ran a race that would have many trainers throwing up their hands and sending him to claimers, but responded well to a switch of surface, showing a marked increase in speed and experiencing good success. He has performed quite well in any length of sprint, and in this distance range, he has three wins and a place to show for four tries. He is a midpack closer, and his close has been quite consistent outside of a couple missteps. His sweet spot seems to be about five lengths or less at the half, and in this one that is going to mean surviving what looks to be a very fast early pace. This colt has been steadily maturing over the last year, and looks to be at his peak coming in here. If he continues to run the way he has and he can survive the early pace in this one, he could surprise a few here.

PP 4) Legs Of Gold(KY) Sired by Medallist, Trained by risktaker. Legs Of Gold(KY) is a well raced four year old colt, looking at career start number twenty seven coming into this one. He makes his first start of his four year old season in his first career stakes try, after exhausting his conditions in the last race of the 2007 season. His last ten starts have watched him go 2-1-1-1-2 with a top speed number of 104.4 earned in his last race. That race was an A2n on a high class New York track, where he came out on top of a field of seven by two lengths in a seven and a half furlong race. He has spilt his running evenly between dirt and turf, but outside of the first two starts of last year, his best speed on dirt has been less than his worst on the grass. His money race on turf has been the seven to seven and a half furlong area, but in this distance range, he has three top three finishes on turf. He has never finished worse than fourth, but has also never won in this distance range. He generally runs as a midpack closer, and while his close has been decent in sprints, he has trouble holding on to it late after a strong move at the half. The early pace here hurts him, and there are more consistent closers in this field. I’ll have to pass on him here.

PP 5) Walksthroughwalls Sired by Forty Niner, Trained by oaklawn66. Walksthroughwalls is a regally bred five year old horse who sees action for his twenty thrid time in this race. He has three stakes wins on his resume, including one at Grade 2 after marching smartly up through his conditions early in his career. He is 2-2-0-0-2 in his last ten starts, with nine 100+ speeds, capped by a blazing 110.1 in his last outing. That race was a seven and a half furlong stakes in Kentucky, where he jumped out to a big lead early and was never seriously challenged, beating a field of seven by a length and a quarter. He has primarily been a dirt runner, just switching over to grass in his last two starts in what looked to be an attempt by his trainer to shake him up a bit. And shake him up it has, posting unconstested victories in both starts. Both of his turf starts have been slightly longer, and on dirt in this distance range, it has been an all or nothing proposition for him, with four wins and four starts where he couldn’t crack the top five spots in eight tries. He is a rocket from the gate, preferring an early lead and lots of it. He doesn’t respond well to an early challenge, and has won only once when he has had to fight for his position over the course of the first half of the race. He should have a battle early in this one and if he can’t shake loose that’s going to hurt him by the time they hit the stretch.

PP 6) Speedy’s Back(IRE) Sired by Doyen(IRE), Trained by jakematt8. Speedy’s Back(IRE) is a four year old colt, who come to Virginia to make his eighteenth career start. He is still seeking his first stakes win as he enters the fray here. In his last ten starts, he has put up a 2-3-1-2-0 record, with a top speed of 108.6 earned two starts back. He came off that career best only to bounce at stakes level last time out, finishing tenth by nearly nine lengths in a tough field in the DCPD Dash. He’s been a turfer for life, making only one dirt start, that race being switched to the main track after a freak storm. This race has been his hallmark race, with thirteen starts in this distance range, nine of them ending in top two finishes for him. He likes to run from the head of the midpack, and outside of his last start his close has been quite good. He’s likely to find himself with a lot of ground to make up in the second half of this one. The excellent speed he posted two starts back seems to be the exception rather than the rule, and while he has been steadily improving over the course of last season, it doesn’t look like he is ready to post those kind of speeds on a consistent basis yet. If he doesn’t have another breakout race here, it is going to be a long day for him in this field.

PP 7) Mr. C. Song Sired by Forest Wildcat, Trained by focusforce. Mr. C. Song is a relatively lightly raced five year old, making only his twentieth career start in this race. He comes into this race boasting a ranking of 12 in the among older turf sprinters, with three stakes wins and several near misses at graded levels. In his last ten starts, he has put together an 0-4-2-3-0 record, much of it at the highest levels of competion, with nine 100+ speeds, topping out at 112.0 in a Grade I sprint last September. His last start was in the DCPD Penn Dash, where he finished a disappointing tenth in a tight race. After making his first four career starts on dirt, he made a surface switch early in his four year old season, and saw his career really take off, running 100+ speeds in thirteen of his next fifteen starts. The bulk of his wins have come in slightly longer races, but he has four top three finishes in seven turf starts in this distance range, and has never finished worse than fourth. He favors a stalker’s pace early, but that has given him at least a piece of the early lead in five of his last eight starts. He should be pushing the early pace in this one as well, keeping the early speed honest. He indubitably has the speed to press that early pace, but the energy he expends will most likely cost him late.

PP 8) Raktavija Sired by Awesome Again, Trained by super16. Raktavija is a five year old horse, looking at his thrity third career start as he steps to the track for this one. He has six prior stakes wins, with the most recent coming over a year ago in the first race of his four year old campaign. His last ten races have been a mixed bag, resulting in a 0-1-0-1-3 record with five 100+ speeds, maxing at 106.9 last September. His last start was in the DCPD Turf Sprint, where he finished eighth, never really finding his legs. He switched to turf late in his two year old season, responding with wins in four of his next six starts, and has not looked back. He’s at his preferred distance here, with six wins and nine top three finishes in seventeen starts. He likes to run from the head of the midpack early, but recently his close has been somewhat spotty at best. He has been in a serious slump over the course of his last three, and I can’t justifiably see him breaking out of it in a field of this calibre. Look for a fairly decent first half followed by a serious second half fade.

PP 9) Velocity Rogue(KY) Sired by Silver Ghost, Trained by cheatjoker. Velocity Rogue(KY) is a four year old colt making his twenty sixth career appearance in this race. He has two prior stakes wins, coming late in his two year old and early in his three year old season. After being dropped in a mid to high level claim race in a fit of pique by his former trainer, he has been simply tearing up the track in allowance competition under the supervision of his new trainer, and comes into this one carrying a divisional ranking of 83 among older turf sprinters. His ten starts he seen him put up a 2-3-2-1-1 record, with five 100+ speeds, which have all come in his last five under his new trainer. He ran an amazing career best 117.4 in his last start, a seven and a half furlong A2t in Illinois, where he bested a field a field of nine by two lengths in a race that saw a third of the field post speeds over the 109 mark. He had a positive start to his career on dirt, but turf has been his real paycheck race. This is his favorite race, and he has posted eight top three finishes in thirteen turf starts in this distance range. He is a deep closer and his close has been terrific in his last six after somewhat of a bounce in the middle of last year. He has been making up some huge second half distances in relation to the legth of the races he’s been running, and this race is begging for a power closer. He has been running the best of his career since he found his new home, and he gets my nod in this one.

PP 10) Silver Duke(KY) Sired by Silver Deputy, Trained by dixon. Silver Duke(KY) is a four year old colt seeing action for the twentieth time in this race. This will be his fourth stakes start, and he is still seeking his first taste of victory at this level. Over his last ten runs, he has built a 3-1-2-1-3 record, besting the 100 mark four times, capped by a 103.5 last August. His last start was a six furlong stakes effort right here in Virginia, where he closed seven lengths in the second half, over five of them in the stretch, before settling for fifth in a tight finish. His trainer switched him to turf in his fifth career start, and since the move, he hasn’t failed to collect a check in any of his next fourteen on the grass. His bread and butter race has been in the mile range. Into two starts in this distance range on turf, he has a third and a fifth by a combined total of just over five lengths. He is a powerful deep closer, and his close has been very consistent. He’s shown the ability to make up very big gaps in the second half, and do it on a regular basis. His biggest problem has been running out of track before he gets to the front, but he generally finds a way to get himself into the mix. He will have to bring up his speed numbers to bring this one home, but if you are looking for something to pad your trifecta box, I think he would be a good choice at 10/1 odds.