The Queen Torrid Lives Up To Its Name
Despite the threat of bad weather a field of seven fillies and mares have shown up to compete over 10 furlongs for the $60,000 prize money. Blue skies greet the runners and riders on the turf track in what may prove to be a huge tactical gamble for a mostly late-running field. With no previous Longchamp winners there is no relevant track form offering any pointers so one for the gamblers here today. the The betting is:
9/5 Captivating
5/2 Impulse Buy
3/1 Excuse(IRE)
5/1 Eaaaxmasgift(IRE)
7/1 Hammer Drop(GB)
11/1 Mambo’s Sun(GER)
51/1 PJ Tigress(IRE)
Analysis
9/5 – Captivating – #3
Trainer: peeps3
(Vindication x Mr. Prospector x Sadler’s Wells)
A very hot favorite today, this trainer bred 5yo Mare from ‘Cobra Kai Racing Stables‘ has netted $773,415 – but has only managed 7 wins. She seems to be a fan of off tracks so her trainer may be a little disappointed with the weather here and there may also be question marks over this distance. On top of that she was easily beaten by Excuse(IRE) in her last run in Japan so favorite backers may find better value elsewhere this time.
5/2 – Impulse Buy – #6
Trainer: shebane
(Danzig x Kris S. x Seattle Slew)
A prolific 6yo mare with 23 wins from her 37 starts. She only managed a 2nd place France last time out but more importantly she has never run this far before however I believe that she is long overdue for this step up in distance as her dam managed 10 route wins (albeit on dirt). I am sure she has the legs to take this field with a late burst in the final stretch.
3/1 – Excuse(IRE) – #1
Trainer: stormborn
(Peintre Celebre(IRE) x Green Desert x El Gran Senor)
A 5yo mare bred by the trainer, part of the very experienced ‘Given Stables: Fire and Blood‘. She’s been suffering from seconditis of late and will be hoping to reverse that trend and add to her 8 wins from 29 starts, although she has yet to win in a stakes race. She has shown good consistency of late and a comfortable victory over hot favorite Captivating last time out will give connections a good measure of confidence.
5/1 – Eaaaxmasgift(IRE) – #5
Trainer: bevron
(King of Kings(IRE) x Seattle Slew x Kingmambo)
A lightly bred 4yo mare owned by ‘Crandy Stables‘ who, as the name suggests, was donated by her sponsoring home residency EAAA, so lots of people will be rooting for her. With G1 and G3 wins already to her name she looks a nice prospect despite having a disappointing start to her 4yo career last time out. The pick of the 4yo’s for sure, but she’ll have to be at her best to compete with the older mares in this race.
7/1 – Hammer Drop(GB) – #7
Trainer: odin
(Powerscourt(GB) x Caerleon x Hail To Reason)
A 4yo filly who after being claimed from stormborn2 of ‘Given Stables: Fire and Blood‘ (see Excuse(IRE) for their runner here) has manged to win all 3 of here starts. She ran particularly well last time out thus earning her first stakes run for her new trainer, though having just a 2 week break this early in the season could be to her disadvantage. Another late running filly, she will be hoping that there is sufficient pace early on to carry her to victory.
11/1 – Mambo’s Sun(GER) – #2
Trainer: whack
(Monsun(GER) x Kingmambo x Danehill Dancer(Ire))
This 4yo filly, owned by a member of the ‘hillbilly race team‘, was originally bred by kensei. After difficulties in her early career she was dropped into claimers – including a £2,000 claimer – before being claimed, so this is is a huge step up. Whilst this distance will suit her better than her only Stakes run so far she will need to have improved a lot to get home in front.
51/1 – PJ Tigress(IRE) – #4
Trainer: stadecxx
(Tiger Hill (IRE) x American Day x Monetary Crisis)
A lightly raced 4yo bargain filly whose moderate game dam was bred by yours truly! The ‘Flyingfinn Stables‘ trainer has had 2 wins from 12 runs from this filly, and after a reasonable victory in Ireland last time out has rewarded her with a very tough race indeed. The heart says, ‘yes’ but my brain says, ‘save your money’.
Summary
These 4yo+ mare races are always interesting at this time of year with the 4yo fillies looking to build on their 3yo career and the 5yo+ mares constantly under threat of retirement to the stud farm if they underperform. Add to that the 10 furlong distance and you have a handicappers nightmare! This race in particular is interesting as none of the fillies or mares on show here have managed to win at Longchamp – indeed only two of them have ever raced here before and both under very different conditions. With only Eaaaxmasgift(IRE) showing any real early pace going on previous runs the rest of the field will find themselves in unfamiliar positions early on. Add to that a short odds favorite who was well beaten by another of the runners last time and things begin to look very confusing indeed, however, in my opinion 5/2 shot Impulse Buy looks to be an experienced 6yo who seems to have been crying out for this longer distance for some time so this could be her day.
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LAST WEEK
In ‘The TEXAS PROJECT Challenge Stakes‘ last week Pop Rock(ENG) avenged her recent loss to Heat More(IRE) in fine style with a late and subsequently devastating run to win by half a length from the tiring favorite. Connections will be delighted with her victory especially since she managed to come from so far off of the pace, a tactic which seemed not to serve her so well last time. BUSCH LEAGUE(KY) managed to run on for the 3rd spot before a large gap to the rest of the field. Hopefully these three will meet again in the future and hopefully it will be here at Longchamp.
1st POP ROCK(ENG) jockeymax4
2nd HEAT MORE(IRE) iant4
3rd BUSCH LEAGUE(KY) aframe27