Dance Seeker and Buda For A Day highlight Cootie’s Sprint
Race 15 on this week’s
First, however, we’ll revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of this classic:
2001 – Buttery Ton – falvelon – 1.22.8 – 102 – Retired winner of $1.9m. – Dam of two uninspiring runners
2002 – Swell Prospector – tripcrown9 – 1.22.2 – 109 – Retired winner of $513k. – Dam of six runners including triple grade 2 winner Stormshaft (Mineshaft) and stakes placed Storm’s Rage (Spinning World).
2003 – Nana’s Girl – duke – 1.21.2 – 120 – retired winner of $830k. – Dam of three, including Grade 2 winning, twice G1 placed In The Evening (Forty Niner) and Stakes placed Private Treasure (Grand Slam)
2004 – Baylee’s Dreamer – fatattack – 1.21.8 – 113 – Retired winner of $1.3m. – Dam of four, including stakeswinner Destined (Rahy) and Stakes placed Fright Flight (Ghostzapper).
2005 –
2006 – Gold Squall – paseana92 – 1.22.0 – 104 – active winner of $1.1m.
2006 – Cryptomagpie – phantom3 – 1.21.6 – 107 – active winner of $404k.
Historically this race has been won in very smart time. Since 2002 it has been necessary to run 1.22 or better to take home the trophy, with winning speed ratings ranging from 104 to a massive 120. Nana’s Girl (2003) and
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:
The inside gate will be occupied by Time Sweep. She’s a reliable and versatile stakes quality five year old mare. After thirty eight starts, she’s lining up against graded opposition for the first time, and that has to be a fact of concern given the overall strength of much of that opposition. Balancing that lack of racing at this level, are the accomplishments she’s achieved in recent racing. Until last August, six starts ago, she’d registered a triple digit speed rating just once in thirty two runs. In her last six, she’s scored triple digits every time she’s ventured to the track. She’s won just the single event in that time, but has been on the podium in five, and finished fourth in the only recent ‘failure’. Time Sweep is the first progeny of Jurassic Predator (Fusaichi Pegasus / Caerleon), a winner of four minor races from twenty two starts. Breeder / trainer Marsattack sent the broodmare to War Chant, and the resultant offspring has justified the breeding by saluting the judge on eight occasions, while banking just shy of $300,000. As a winning chance, I feel there are just too many with stronger credentials. Having said that, it’s fair to argue that, despite her experience, she still has improvement potential. And it’s a long time since she’s gone home without a cheque.
Barrier 2 holds Danehill Seeker, lightly raced and somewhat the unknown quantity given that her most recent superb form has all been registered on rain affected going. She’s won six of her ten runs, the last two against black type opposition, so there can be no doubting that she’s done enough to earn the tilt at the Graded class of events. She’s answered every challenge to date, and perhaps the best measure of her chances here was her effort at just her fifth start. She’d been competitive up till then, and the race in question was only a NW2L allowance, but she covered the mile in 1.35.4, registering a triple digit speed figure. That should be enough to alleviate fears that she may need a wet track to produce her best. To her most recent form; Consecutive ungraded wins over six and a half furlongs, stopping the clock in 1.15.6 and 1.16.4, and returning speed ratings of 105 and 107. She has the benefit of versatility in that she can lead all the way (and will have no trouble in securing the rail, should her jockey so decide) or she can take a sit. Danehill Seeker, a scratchbred four year old daughter of Danehill Dancer / Giant’s Causeway / Seeking the Gold, has done more than enough to give breeder / trainer Trotter5 and the stable followers plenty of confidence. She’s also done more than enough to earn plenty of respect from the rest of us.
Volcanobone starts from 3, and may be underrated, particularly by the oddsmakers who have posted her as the rank outsider of the field. The Ksparrow trained entry certainly has hurdles to overcome. She’s the only runner never to have registered a triple digit speed rating in her career, and her last four victories have all been in allowances. However there are plenty of points on the positive side of the ledger. She has previously won at Grade 3 level, albeit as an early two year old. She boasts an excellent strike rate, having won eight from eighteen, and her run two starts back is probably the strongest guide to her chances in this. In mid October she lined up in the G3-Train Station Stakes in
In gate 4 we find Double Defence. She’s at the long quote of 22/1 largely based on the fact that she’s yet to win at ungraded stakes level, and takes on a field of performers proven at a much higher standard. She fits the mould of several of the runners here, in that she’s done enough to earn a chance at graded racing, but has chosen an unusually difficult Grade 3 to test the waters. Sadly for her, and for several other starters still advancing with maturity, is that the top half dozen in the betting here would be more suited to a Grade 1 event. Having said all that, this filly does have a couple of positives on her side. Her run three starts back, when third in that
Dance Seeker, the top rated older turf sprinting filly, alights from barrier 5. She’s facing a reduction in class here after becoming a semi-permanent fixture in the Grade 1 events of her class throughout 2007. She may well appreciate the drop here, as she found herself a length or two short in her most recent starts. In fact, her top of the class ranking has been achieved without a Grade 1 victory in the last twelve months. That perhaps underlines her consistency, as she won twice at Grade 2 level, another two in Grade 3’s, and then towards the end of last year, ran third three times in consecutive Grade 1 appearances, they coming soon after she ran second behind Lindt in the G1-Smackdown. All in all she had a most consistent year at the top level. She began her 2007 program with a run in last years renewal of this event, running sixth, and must look to have every chance to improve on that here. A scratchbred daughter of Seeking the Gold / Northern Dancer / Blushing Groom, Dance Seeker is the runner which most of the opposition will be focusing on when considering their tactics here, as she prepares yet again to provide breeder trainer Rockriver with another season of excitement. 9/1 looks a generous offering for the top rated mare racing in a Grade 3 within her own division.
Gate 6 is the starting position for Eye of the World, a more than capable four year old mare looking to restore her reputation following three runs which, although not without merit, were below the standard we had come to expect from this runner. At this time last year she was well and truly on the up, establishing herself as a better than stakes quality filly, while developing the grounding to reach higher. She took those steps impressively, winning the G3-Latonia Special in May, running second to Lightseeker in July’s G1-Smackdown III, then producing the highlight of her career by nosing out Ploy to earn the winners trophy in the G1-World Cup Ladies Turf Sprint in September. Did that career highlight flatten her? Will she bounce back as a four year old? Those questions will be answered this week. Eye of the World is a daughter of the winner of five from thirty seven, Sack the Castle (Sakhee / Kingmambo). She’s the leading money earner from the first crop of her sire, Dubawi and breeder / trainer Shamran7 will be confident the number four ranked older turf sprinting mare can bounce back and add yet another graded victory to her tally.
Barrier 7 is the starting place for Woke Up Dancing, another who matured significantly as a late three year old and who seeks to graduate to the graded ranks at four. There is nothing not to like about her immediate recent form. Last start, when racing in an ungraded stakes in Epsom, she must have astounded her connections when a 109 speed rating was only good enough on the day to secure a third place finish. Prior to that, she was victorious in a similar event in
From 8 comes Sufi, a five year old mare racing in the best form of her career, having been given plenty of time to mature and earning her place in this field following a string of impressive runs. A solid allowance runner until around April last year, she made the step to stakes competition seamlessly, winning at her second start in black type company. She remained at that level throughout the year, running second on four occasions from five, before her career best effort last start in mid November when she sizzled over the six furlong trip in 1.08.8, registering a 110 speed figure. Peeps4 has given Sufi a brief spell since that run, in preparation for, presumably, a season of Graded racing at five. Her major obstacle is the same as the one which faces a few of her opponents, including French Penthouse, Woke Up Dancing and Copper Finch. She’s taking on a number of proven fillies and mares, most of them established at Grade 1 standard, at her first tilt at this level. A repetition of her most recent run puts her in amongst the genuine chances. She’ll drop out early, and we expect to see the scratchbred daughter of Vindication / Mr. Prospector / Lear Fan motoring home as the talent filled field races towards the post.
French Penthouse lines up in 9 and at first glance she appears to have the job ahead of her, given that four of her last five appearances were against ungraded opposition, and she’s failed to greet the judge in any of those races. That’s the harsh initial reaction. On further analysis, there can be no doubt that she’s earned her spot at this level. Back in July she ran home strongly to beat all but Buda For a Day in the G2-Niedemeyer Cup. That was a sensational run and it followed a halcyon period between January and May where she won five consecutive ungraded stakes. Although she’s yet to taste victory against this class of opposition, she was a model of consistency in 2007, winning six of thirteen and taking home a cheque in all but one appearance. Owner / trainer Rlogans bred French Penthouse using the scratchbred combination of French Deputy / Pentelicus / Formidable. The major concern is not so much in her own ability, as in the depth of some of her opposition. This race may carry Grade 3 status, but it contains runners we would be more likely to encounter in the more prestigious Grade 1’s. She likes to race midfield, and I’ll be looking for her to hold her ground, and to be ready to take advantage of any errors of the more highly fancied.
From 10 comes Hollaback Girl, representing the Super conglomerate. While she’s earned the respect of the oddsmakers with a string of impressive speed numbers, I’m prepared to dismiss her as a serious chance in this event, based primarily on her inability to transfer undeniably strong ungraded stakes form to the Graded stage. She ran last in this event last year, and that’s by no means her sole indiscretion. Let’s study her Graded form: April 06. Seventh of twelve in the G3-Short Female Sprint after consecutive wins coming in. December 06. Ninth of twelve in the G1-The No Respect Blitz, after winning an ungraded stake in her previous run. Next start, the aforementioned last here twelve months ago. Then the fourth and most recent Graded run of her career, seventh of thirteen last October in the G3-Turn Off the Alarm Stakes, following a 106 speed rating when second in an ungraded stake. Hollaback Girl is a six year old daughter of
Stall 11 is the starting slot for Buda For a Day, beginning her four year old season here, after rounding out her three year old racing with a solid effort behind Nook Queen in the G1-Penn Debutante. She was well fancied in that race, justifiably so as she’d just accounted the cream of the older sprinting fillies in the G1-Rock of Cashel. 2007 was a wonderful year for the then three year old as she triumphed in three races at the level, winning the G1-1000
Alberta Fire will emerge from gate 12, in her quest to stretch her current winning streak to five. Anybody subscribing to the theory that sim horses are finished at thirty starts should take a good look at this mare. After twenty nine runs, she’d only once scored a triple digit speed rating, and despite four ungraded stakes victories as a younger racer, she was racing where he times dictated she should: in allowances. But what has happened in the three starts since. She’s carved lengths off her previous standard times and had matured into a flying machine. After thirty one races, she’d tackled the Graded ranks just once, for a dismal tenth of eleven in the G2-Niedermeyer Cup as a three year old. We’ll never know what Oilspill did, or weather the horse just naturally needed time to achieve her best. But anyway, the trainer had seen enough to enter the mare in DelPenn’s million dollar G1-Mumtaz Mahal, where, at double figure odds, she trounced a field containing the cream of her peers. Alberta Fire is a scratchbred daughter of Seeking The Gold / Gone West / Secretariat. What are we offered about the chances of this last start Grade 1 winning victor of her last four encounters? – 9/1. That’s more than good enough for me.
Herbalism begins from the number 13 stall, in the older brigade as one of just three six year olds to be lining up for this race. A winner of more than half of her career starts (17 from 33) there can be no doubting her ability to find the line. She was given a fairly light program during 2007, including a lengthy spell between February and September. Unbeaten in three runs in January and February, and going to the paddock on a streak of six black type wins, she returned and extended the winning streak to seven. Had it not been for a nose defeat, in July 06, the Ninerae bred and trained mare could have recorded an astounding thirteen straight stakes victories. How do fifteen stakes wins stack up in Grade 3 company? Very well, if she can reproduce her peak form. Herbalism’s career highlight (apart from the aforementioned huge ungraded stakes record) is her second placing in the G3-Desert Flower Stakes of 2005, and perhaps more current, her run three starts back when fourth, beaten less than four lengths behind Ganglord, Buda For a Day and Dance Seeker in November’s G1-The Triptych Memorial. Her last couple of runs have been a length or two below par, but if she rebounds, the daughter of Gone West / Northern Dancer / Alydar should be storming home from just astern of midfield as the field draws towards the finishing line.
Copper Finch jumps from the outside gate, an absolute model of consistency as a three year old in 2007. Facing the starter fifteen times last year, she achieved a podium finish on every occasion, rounding out the year with a scorecard of two wins, nine seconds and four thirds. Foxon5 has decided that this year it’s time to aim a little higher, and it’s a justifiable decision, especially in light of the steadily increasing triple digit speed ratings she’s returned in her last six trips to the track. There are a couple of concerns to ponder. Although this is officially a Grade 3 contest, some of her more seasoned opposition has been firing in the cream of the Grade 1 events. Again this does not detract from this runners’ ability, merely underlines the strength of competition she’ll encounter on her first foray into Grade racing. Copper Finch is accomplishing the feats which were no doubt expected from her mother, the superbly bred lemon, No White Flag (Fusaichi Pegasus / Green Desert) (I can’t help it – Leave out the ‘No’ and she was superbly named!) Despite her dam’s lack of racetrack success, the breeder wisely chose War Chant as her mate, and the result is this very capable mare. I don’t see her taking home the trophy, but I’m not brave enough to predict an end to her nineteen race run of consecutive podium finishes.
Summary: Although I’m not a betting man, I do look for value when summarizing races. It doesn’t matter how many times I look, the 9/1 available for Alberta Fire is just far too generous. She’s my top selection. It’s hard to look past proven performers in favour the up and comers, but my gut feel is that some of these up and comers are going to well and truly make the grade. I like Woke Up Dancing at the nice price of 11/1 to fill the exacta spot. Copper Finch has finished on the podium nineteen times in a row, let’s give her the nod for twenty, while it hurts to leave Danehill Seeker out of my top three. Now, having made the tough decisions, the excuses come in advance. Time Sweep (consistent), Dance Seeker (dropping in class), Eye of the World (should rebound), Sufi (racing in great heart), Buda For a Day (proven class) and Herbalism (undisputed talent) could all win without surprising. In fact, the only ‘knock’ I’m prepared to give is Hollaback Girl.
The Market:
6/1 – Buda For A Day
7/1 – Herbalism
8/1 – Sufi, Copper Finch
9/1 – Dance Seeker,
Qualification Order (Class Rating Position):
Dance Seeker – 1
Buda For A Day – 2
Eye Of The World – 4
French Penthouse – 22