The TOP ART Cap Stakes, 13 furlongs fast dirt Newmarket
Its BB week, but here at Newmarket we still have another weeks action even though eyes may be diverted across the pond. As there is no time zones in sim world the big screens have been erected just across from the grandstand, so the lucky Newmarket racegoers can watch all the action, both local and international as it unfolds. And for those of you that think sprints are over far too quick and like to see a long drawn out affair we have a treat for you in the shape of race ten on Saturdays card,
1) OTTO NINER verona 110621 A Holohan 9/5
4 yo colt
Forty Niner x Sadler`s Wells x Unbridled
18 runs 4 wins 3 seconds 3 thirds $141824
Sent from Pierchinski stables,representing GR Simisters 3 times he has tried stakes class in the past and each time coming up with a big fat zilch. He deserves another crack at this level on the evidence of his last two runs,finishing second in a restricted allowance in Norway over 11 furlongs beaten 2 1/4 lengths and running a 101. Lto scooted up in a open allowance over 10 furlong in Denmark and worth $49200. Won easily with a 99 and while his speed figures suggest he needs just a little more to win this, history has shown that the only 2 races in his career that he has managed to settle in 2nd or better he has went on to win and I dont see very much pace in this race apart from him. This must give him some sort of chance.
2)
SERMON II cbrady 330050 T Cooper 15/13 yo Colt
Giants Causeway x Pulpit x Chiefs Crown
16 runs 3 wins 32 seconds 3 thirds $91110
This 3 yo has lovely lines, but unfortunately for his trainer lovely lines dont always guarantee you a runner and this one doesn`t really look much of a runner. With a pb 89 set back in March in a winning effort in a 3yo allowance over 8.5 furlongs in Sweden, he has never been able to replicate that figure in seven runs since and my prediction for this one today is he will struggle to get within ten lengths of the winner of this race. His main hope (along with the other 2 donts) will be something goes wrong with one of the big three in order that he may be able to sneak a place, but like his price it`s a longshot. Not a bad jockey booking though.
3)
LOWLANDS LIME sherman10 200000 Bo Edwards 21/15 yo horse
Arazi x Kingmambo x Danzig
39 runs 2 wins 5 seconds 2 thirds $58412
Oh dear, Im afraid there is absolutely nothing this horse has done or is ever likely to do that can make me recommend him here even in the slightest. A out and out sprint claimer masquerading in a staying stakes race, well if he does anything here it must come as a massive surprise to even his own trainer, who as the owner of a 45 strong string of stables boasts a miserly 3% win record. Not any sort of chance according to the odds makers and im going to have to agree.
4)
SINNER KING pullaway3 531681 C Byrne 14/13 yo Colt
Sinndar x King of Kings x Danehill
12 runs 3 wins 2 thirds $58054
Our third and final dont,at least this one,unlike the other two has a pb in the 90`s. Still thats only good enough to get this beaten here by eight lengths rather than 10 + but at least he has more scope for improvement than the other two donts. And he is going to have to find improvement if he wants to figure in the finish here, and that improvement would have to be big. Not an impossible task, but a very difficult one and I dont fancy him to harass any of the big 3.
5)
TIZ TOMMAROW dynever 513114 T Wasko 9/54 yo Colt
Tiznow x His Majesty x Tom Fool
25 runs 5 wins 3 seconds 5 thirds $177360
In fine fettle with himself and although he has never raced over a trip as long as this, he has appeared to be screaming out for longer than the 11 and 12 furlongs he has been restricted to in the last year and a quarter. His last 3 runs have all been in 11 furlongs stakes races and he has aquitted himself really well and improved just a little each time. 3 runs back he got up just in the shadow of the post to nick a stakes by a quarter of a length in Athens .His winning speed a pb 99. He then crossed the track divide to Florida where he comfortably won a stakes by a cosy 2 3/4 lengths with a 100. Lto he couldnt get placed in a stakes at South California but still managed a 1 point speed improvement with a 101 to finish fourth. The interesting thing about this run was the amount of ground he was eating up close home after finding himself 15 + lengths behind before halfway. This suggests he may well improve for this extra two furlongs and who`s to say he doesn`t stay even further than this.
6)
VERUS Kurvin 113114 J Bradley 8/5 fav4 yo Colt
Kingmambo x Pleasant Colony x Herbager
13 runs 5 wins 1 third $167628
Maybe he needed a bit of a break after disappointing in his last run after looking really progressive in his four runs previous to that when he picked up 3 stakes win and finished 3rd in another stakes,over 14 furlongs which probably stretched his stamina to the max. Before his flop in Sweden, at the very same track he had looked so impressive when winning the third of these stakes wins, winning over 10.5 furlongs by a quarter of a length with a big 107, which I think would be enough to win here today. He also has stakes winning form at 13 furlongs as he trotted up in Ireland 3 runs back by 3 3/4 lengths in an ungraded stakes. The big question is how will he be after his disappointing run lto. Can he get back to anywhere near his best? If he does he wins.
POGO PREDICTS
Well I know who the first 3 will be, I know not in which order. Question marks about the favorite but basically he has to drop down a level (like in his last run) to give the other 2 do`s, who are solid if not spectacular a shot of winning. That may be a little unfair Tiz Tommarow who may be solid at 11 furlongs but may be spectacular over 13 furlongs and now Ive went and talked myself off the favorite and im going to go for Tiz Tommarow to beat Verus with Otto Niner to fade into 3rd.
5 to beat 6 with 1 in 3rd.