The Baby Girls Go for the Glory
As we look to an exciting field for the 2007 edition of the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly Stakes, let’s look for insight by examing the past winners.
1999
Kingab’s own Mother Story won in a come from behind effort at 7-1. She was the third choice in the betting line, despite a stellar two year old season. She won six of her nine starts that year, including three Grade I stakes and another graded stakes. As a three year old she went on to win the Middle Flower, becoming the first and last Breeders Bowl winner to have success in Triple Tiara races. She earned over $2 million in her racing career (tops among BB winners) and as a broodmare she’s produced six runners including five winners and two stakes placed runners. She prepped for the Breeders Bowl by winning the Grade I Frickame Stakes four weeks prior.
2000
Theatrical’s Minsky owns stakes record of 1:432. She went off at 8-1, fifth choice in the betting. Her prep was a 2nd in the Frickame. Unlike most graded winners, especially Breeders Bowl Juvenile winners, it took her five starts to break her maiden. Even so, she went on to win four of her 13 starts as a two year old, including three graded wins. Her five offspring have all been winners, and she has one of the two graded winners bred by a winner of this race.
2001
Seekin Gal is the dam of the other graded winner. The preakness trained filly was the second choice in the field on Breeders Bowl Day 2001. As a two year old she won six of her seven starts, including three Grade I wins. She picked up one more graded win as a three year old, but like most of the Juvenile winners, she had a hard time continuing the success of her first season. In her last three years of racing she had only one win. But what a two year old she was, winning most of her lifetime earnings of $1.8 million that year. Seekin Gal prepped for the Breeders Bowl by winning the Grade I Hoserhead Fillies five weeks prior.
2002
Land Slam, out of the graywolf3 barn, won five of her nine two year old starts. Besides the BB win, she picked up one more graded win that year and another Grade I win early her three year old season. She tried the Bluegrass Oaks, but was well beaten. For the Breeders Bowl win, she was second in the betting and prepped with a third in a Grade I race four weeks prior.
2003
Du Drop Bai was the longest betting shot ever to win this race. She was 16-1 and was the tenth choice among the fourteen runners. She was also the only wire to wire winner of the race. Though this was her lone Grade I win, richgins trained her to five more Grade II or III wins. As a two year old she had three wins in her seven starts. Her prep was a third in the Grade II Margarine Stakes, five weeks prior.
2004
Santillana had the fewest starts of any BB Juvenile winner. She qualified for the race off of only two starts: a maiden win and a win in the Margarine. It was not a surprise that she was a 10-1 choice, sixth favorite in the race. Trainer fersara got those wins in the first three starts and little after that. Santillana tried the Bluegrass Oaks, but finished last. She was winless as a three year old and sent to the breeding shed shortly after turning five. Her lone offspring is already a winner, following in his mother’s precocious manner. The six weeks between Santillana’s starts in the Margarine and in the Breeders Bowl is longer than for any other winner.
2005
Pro Dubai made it three in a row for winners going off at more than 10-1. She was eighth choice in the betting, despite finishing second in the Grade I Globalism Special five weeks before. Capsize got three wins out of eight starts from Pro Dubai as a two year old. She’s sitting with $900,000 in earnings. Recent races have made $1 million look like a hard goal to reach. Pro
2006
2006 was the first year the purse was increased from $1 million to $2 million. With the year Sisson’s Chant had, it’s a surprise to be reminded that she was not the favorite in this race, but was the 8-1 third choice. Levers’ filly won seven of her eight starts, including three Grade I wins. She breaks the pattern of prepping for this race by using an allowance win five weeks. She maintains the pattern since 2000 of some futility her sophomore season with a sixth in the Bluegrass Oaks, though her recent Smackdown win may portend a rebound in form.
2007
The first thing to notice is that no favorite has ever won the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly, though half of the winners were second or third in the betting. Only one winner has run on the lead, though the last three winners were not far off. Only one winner (last year’s) did not enter off an in-the-money finish in a graded stakes. Every winner but one came to the race with a four or five week rest from the prep race. The exception had a six week break. Five of the eight winners won most of their two year old starts.
There are some obvious limitations so most of these patterns. To qualify for this race, you probably had to be in the money in a graded stakes in your previous race. A four or five week break between races for two year olds is probably the norm. Indeed, if you are pointing to this race, you probably planned it that way anyway. In other words, the winners have had four of five weeks because all the runners had four or five weeks. The winners from early in the history tended to come from well off the pace; recently they’ve been running closer to the lead. The number of races is too small to make a big deal of that trend.
And there is a difference to note this year: The World Cup races were five weeks ago. Being selected for the teams not only helped fillies qualify for this race, but that race brings an unprecedented factor into handicapping this one. Half the field faced each other in one World Cup race or another. Another pair faced off in the more traditional prep, the Margarine Stakes and another pair in the Walnut.
To predict the next trend, let’s look at today’s field:
PP 1 OASIS NINE(ENG) (OASIS DREAM (GB) x FORTY NINER x AFFIRMED) bred and trained by given (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 17%) Odds: 17-1
Acting on Mike’s tip that Oasis Dream was being upgraded as a sire, Given bred this filly for a January birth. That sire owned several Grade I turf wins, so Oasis Nine started her career on that surface, where she ran a strong third in a large field. Her dam has produced a half-sister that won a graded turf stakes, so someday Oasis Nine might return to that surface.
In the meantime, she moved to the dirt where she responded with two wins. Her times were not impressive, but the high-strung filly was showing progress, and the barn tried a minor stakes. She didn’t win, but was making such progress in her morning works, that Given thought she might have a chance in this Breeders Bowl race.
To get the stakes points necessary to qualify, Oasis Nine had to take on the colts in a listed stakes in her first route. She responded with a runaway win and a confident attitude.
There still are major questions for her to answer. She’s never run in a graded stakes, her speed figures are lighter than many in here, and the barn has had to keep her sharp during an eight week layoff. But Given is hopeful and claims the filly continues her improvement.
PP 2 APPEAL THIS(KY) (SUCCESSFUL APPEAL x GONE WEST x ROBERTO) bred and trained by unpperhand2 (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 23%) Odds: 7-1
In the GR Simsters’ Forum Given wrote: “On
The result is Appeal This.
Like her stablemate Oasis Nine, she’s lightly raced with only five starts, but those starts include a huge Grade I win in the Getaway Stakes and a strong second in the always tough Smackdown series.
Given describes her as relaxed in the shed-row, but a “demoness” on the track.
If she is to win it will be wire to wire. She is the speed of the speed, and other than her stablemate, who presumably will not bother her early, all of the other early speed is well to the outside. For this co-favorite, the race is hers if she can hang on.
The drawbacks for her are, like Oasis Nine, a layoff longer than any winner of this race has had, and questions about the distance. She’s never gone two turns before and Successful Appeal has had very limited success producing routers. Dam was lightly used – only running four times and never trying longer than six and a half furlongs.
PP 3 TEN YEAR STORM(KY) (SILVER DEPUTY x FORTY NINER x SUMMER SQUALL) bred by futurestar, trained by wtas02 (Dixiedotco Racing, 19%) Odds: 9-1
The Dixiedotco stables, year in and year out, run about the best operation around, and when they say they feel good about this filly’s chances, that ought to be enough.
But there’s more.
They point out that most of the rest of the field has not yet won at this distance like she did in the Margarine Stakes. Let’s correct that: no other filly in this race has won at this distance. They’ve been pointing her for this race all year, and all has gone according to plan so far.
Prior to the Margarine, she ran four sprints, each time laying just off the pace and closing hard at the end. Those four sprints resulted in three wins, missing only in the Stoker Handicap to Silver City Gal.
While the barn feels comfortable with any pace scenario, it looks like this race may set up to Ten Year Storm’s strength: a strong pace she can sit just behind.
PP 4 CK GHOST PROSPECT(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by ckstables3 (Team CK, 11%) Odds: 7-1
In breeding cost alone, this filly ought to be something special. And she is.
She’s been favored in five of her six races, and has not disappointed, winning all five of those races and just missing in the race where she was second choice.
Her career began with a fourteen filly maiden race and a pair of listed stakes. She responded with easy come-from-behind wins. Team CK then tried the Grade I Hoserhead, where she closed like crazy to just miss catching Silver City Gal.
She then went to northern
PP 5 DEMONIC PRESENCE(KY) (VICTORY GALLOP x MINESHAFT x POLISH NUMBERS) bred and trained by taicheska (Samran Stables, 14%) Odds: 9-1
By winning the World Cup Juvenile Filly Mile (and convincingly so), Demonic Presence bolted to the number one division ranking.
She began her career with an upset win in a fourteen fill field. Four of the thirteen fillies she beat that day have gone on to win. Surprisingly, that’s a sign that it was a strong field.
From there, she went on to seconds in an allowance race and a listed stakes. Samran decided to try her in a graded stakes next. The Grade III Butterfly had a near-blanket finish, so her ninth place was not as bad as it may sound.
An allowance win and a list second, both routing, got her invited to the World Cup. She was fourth choice in the betting, but won handily against a field that included LPGA Spike and Dehere That.
The win looks impressive, but deserves a critical look. The fields were chosen by committee, which was forced to make decisions based on limited nominees and limited records. No filly from that race has raced since, so we don’t really know how strong the field was.
We do know that she’s the number one filly at generous odds, and that she’s one of only two in here with two route wins, and she beat the other one.
PP 6 MEAN GIRL(KY) (CAME HOME x MACHIAVELLIAN x STORM BIRD) bred by topicount5, trained by gg (Tropicount Stables, 16%) Odds: 7-1
Like many in here, Mean Girl began her precocious career with a win in a fourteen filly field. Since then, Topicount has kept her in stakes. She sprinted in her first four stakes, picking up a listed win and a third in the Grade III Little Momma.
Then three weeks ago, she tried her first route, the Grade II Walnut Tree, and she absolutely demolished the field, in the process earning the highest speed figure in the field and earning the co-favorite 7-1 odds.
The affordable Came Home has been producing nearly 10% stakes winners, though mostly sprinters, but Mean Girl’s dam had most of her limited success in routes.
Topicount describes Mean Girl as a sweetheart around the barn and says she is thrilled to get her favorite jockey. Gossett teamed up with Tropicount for Seeking Sal’s and Fly for Buda’s biggest wins.
No winner of this race has ever come into it with such a short recovery from her prep race, but Mean Girl is sure to love the distance….
PP 7 LPGA SPIKE(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY x
Spike came into the World Cup Juvenile Filly Mile with a two race win streak and the highest ranking in the field, yet she went off at 10-1 odds. She was no match in the end for Demonic Presence, but she did outrun her odds to finish second after sticking her nose in front for a bit.
The last race may have been a loss, but the speed figure it earned continued the improvement she’s been showing over the past several race, and it ran her record in routes to two wins and a second in three starts.
12-1 is a serious overlay for a filly that has now proven she can handle this graded level and loves to run two turns.
PP 8 AUTUMN NIGHTS(KY) (GIACOMO x MR. PROSPECTOR x FULL OUT) bred and trained by lenny18 (The Evil Empire, 18%) Odds: 21-1
She ran her first three races in
Lenny next shipped her to
The class jump is even larger than it appears at first. She is not only going from listed company to graded, this will be the first time she’s faced any quality competition, and the first time she’s been in a race with more than seven runners.
She is the best of the 41 runners sent out by first year sire Giacomo. Needless to say, he hasn’t had a stakeswinner yet. Her dam retired after a single race and has given Autumn Nights a half-sister who is stakes-placed.
All is not hopeless. She is trained by the evil emperor himself, her best races have been her two routes, and she’s been showing improvement with every start.
PP 9 DREAMY CAT(KY) (BLUEGRASS CAT x NORTHERN DANCER x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by elzid (Baggio Stables, 8%) Odds: 15-1
Dreamy Cat was the 14th qualifier of the 21 entrants. She tried turf her first race, and did not take to it. Her third try at wiring the field in dirt races paid off with her first win.
Elzid stepped her right up to a Grade III stakes and stretched her out from five furlongs to six and a half. In addition she was asked to rate behind early leaders for the first time and she responded with a good win. She was asked for another half-furlong and two more steps up the class ladder for the Grade I Getaway. She came from near the back of the pack to run a very nice third.
Off those graded performances, she was invited to run in the World Cup Juvenile Filly Sprint. She ran the first half of the race with CK Ghost Prospect, but when that rallied to win by a nose, Dreamy Cat could not match the move and finished a disappointing 11th.
To look at it in a glass half full way, consider that she was getting faster and faster as the distances increased and threw in her clunker when dropped back in distance. She’s certainly proven she can handle the class. Maybe her first route try will make her forget about that forgettable effort.
It’s hard to predict how well the freshman sire Bluegrass Cat will produce routers.
PP 10 SILVER CITY GAL(KY) (SILVER TRAIN x
Those performances earned her the right to join stablemate Dreamy Cat in the World Cup Juvenile Filly Sprint, where she went off as co-favorite. Staying close to the lead, she was no match for the late-flying GK Ghost Prospector, but her fourth place finish was not far behind.
Her wins in both the Stoker and the Hoserhead came at odds longer than today’s. She’s the number two ranked sprinter, and if this race were around one turn she may well have been the favorite. Only half the field has a speed figure in the 90’s. She is in that half.
Baggio seems to favor the first year sires. No way to know yet how Silver Train will do with routing sons and daughters.
Like her stablemate, she makes her first route start today. She’s proven she belongs in graded stakes, but who knows about the distance?
PP 11 NEHI
After three sprints, Nehi was happy to stretch out to a route. With Unbridled’s Song and A.P. Indy in the first two generations, not to mention a dam all of whose wins came in routes, that is no surprise. If anything, it is may be surprising how well she ran in those sprints.
Most recently, she led to the stretch in the Grade I Margarine at today’s distance, only to fade to third. Her nemesis in that race, Ten Year Storm, is here today. To make things worse, her desire to grab the early lead is shared by a few others in here.
Munoz, her rider, was up two races back, and he took her to the front, only to be caught at the end in a decent listed stakes. He may be asked to bring her from behind the early runners this time. It’s up to the filly to respond to the challenge.
PP 12 TROPICAL TROPHY(KY) (TROPICAL STORM x BAHRI x MACHIAVELLIAN) bred and trained by deepblue (Blacksoxuk Bm3 Stables, 9%) Odds: 11-1
She ran the best race of her life, by far, last time in the World Cup Juvenile Filly Sprint. She ran away from the field, building up a nearly three length lead. Just as it looked like she might pull off the upset, GK Ghost Prospect nosed her out at the end.
The World Cup was her sixth straight graded stakes. During that run she picked up a win, three seconds, and a third.
After eight sprints, she makes her first route start. 97% of Tropical Storm’s get’s earnings have come in sprints. Ouch. Both of the wins from the dam came in turf routes, so maybe.
In her favor, while she likes to run on the lead, she doesn’t appear to need it. She has never been discouraged when running just behind the early leaders.
PP 13 DEHERE THAT(KY) (DEHERE x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT) bred and trained by snappa6 (Snappa Racing Syndicate, 19%) Odds: 9-1
A Smackdown win, as well as a maiden and a listed stakes win in
With that gaudy bankroll, she was invited to the World Cup Juvenile Filly Mile, where she went off as the second choice in the betting. She stuck with the early pace setter, but when that one faded, she was able to gamely fight the late runners, only to succumb late to a pair that included Demonic Presence.
While she’s been an impressive runner and dollar earner, there is no denying that her last two races have come in restricted company. Also a worry is that her last race, her first route, she earned a slower speed figure than in her previous race.
Her breeding says she should do fine at the distance. Dehere’s runners have done as well in routes as in sprints and her dam’s sole win (in her four starts) came in a route.
PP 14 SAGE ROYALE(MD) (LION HEARTED x PULPIT x SINGSPIEL(IRE)) bred by
What an interesting history she’s had.
After breaking her maiden in her debut, she tried the Grade III Arizona Shootout and looked terrible, running last in the early May stakes against what turned out to be a field that was nothing special. Suspecting the performance might be due to the unusually wet
Two races later they tried her in a listed stakes, hoping to catch a weak field. They did and Sage Royale finished second with a slow time.
In August they ambitiously stepped her up to graded company for the Grade III Dr. Shut-Yer-Lips, and she stunned the field with a wire to wire performance.
Next they tried a route and she won, but with a less than impressive time. So why not enter her in the Grade II Walnut Tree? She almost pulled off another major wire to wire upset, but Mean Girl relegated her to second. That race was a short three weeks ago.
So this is her pattern. She was slow her first graded try and won her second. She was slow her first route try and nearly pulled off a major upset with her second. In her graded stakes, she’s won at 15-1 and finished second at over 10-1.
This filly and this barn are not afraid of being installed as longshots. They aren’t afraid of coming back on such short rest either.
Summary
As usual, I have no idea who will win. Mean Girl owns a fast win at the distance, but comes with a brief rest. Demonic Presence is rated number one, but may not have had a tough test last time.
Here’s my shot: Ten Year Storm/Mean Girl/Demonic Presence