Race ID:3385.2815

Lapel Pin Stakes

Grade III

A Mile and one quarter

Fast Dirt
$175,000

Fillies and Mares, 3 years old and up

PP        Age            Name                           Trainer                        Odds            Pedigree

1          6F            DECEMBER SHADOW            topicount2         15/1            AP Indy x Black Tie Affair x Alleged

Record: 34 races: 8-10-5

This six year old Mare racing for the Topicount Empire is last year’s winner of this race where she posted the best speed of her career and can come out of the innergate. Do note that since then she has not won a single race anymore but she still managed to become second in several low field Stakesraces. With the absence of the much better horses running at more important races I bet her trainer wants her to repeat last year’s performance and fire off a topspeed again. Don’t think it will happen but with her experience she definitely has a chance to finish on the board.

2          4F            SARAH’S APTITUDE            ambersnow      20/1            Aptitude x Doyoun x Northern Dancer

Record: 18 races: 7-6-3

In sixteen of her 18 races in total this filly finished on the board. The reason is that she was cleverly placed in low field allowances which most likely were all bid for by her trainer. She has brought a lot of breedingpoints back to the stable and did more than a good job. However she has absolutely no experience at this level and will not have any chance today. A bit misplaced here.

3          6F            TRICKY N CLEVER            ontheline          9/1            Woodman x Clever Trick x Pretense

Record: 29 races: 9-10-2

Over a half million of earnings and the only Graded Winner out of mare CLEVER TENANT. That Graded Win dates back from May 2006 in her highest speed of her Career. At that time she seems to have been at her best level posting several +100 figures in a row. She has not been able doing that lately and is very lightly raced this year. Maybe her training is trying to wake her up again one way or another. She looks to be liking the longer races more and more and it could well be this race will be way too short for her.

4          4F            MT. PYEMORE                       pye                   14/1            Grand Slam x Cozzene x Mt. Livermore

Record: 23 races: 3-8-2

This lady also looks a bit lost lately and misplaced in this race. She has not been able to post any high (+100) speed yet and does seem to experience difficulties this year to hold her speed in races till the end. She has not won a single race the last nine months and she seems to gradually be not more than an allowance horse that can place herself on the board sometimes. Will be completely overrun in the stretch in my opinion.

5          4F            SUNDEW                     euroalien          27/1            Testa Rossa x Warning x Alydar

Record: 26 races: 7-5-3

Although this filly does have gathered some rankingpoints she seems to come on the start of this race in a weak manner. Her best lifetime speed is a 99SP but that was in an allowance which was run end of last year. She did win a Stakes earlier this year but this was in a four-horse field and in a low 86 Speed. Since then she has been running in allowances where her best place was a second place in her last race. She just does not seem to have it to be a treath in this race.

6          4F            GREY WORM               kfastno3                      7/1            Mizzen Mast x Woodman x Tom Rolfe

Record: 33 races: 13-6-6

In gate six we have one of our first real contenders that might be able to win today. She is at place 61 in the rankings and in her last race she posted her best speed figure of her carreer. She very much likes to come off somewhere in the back of the pack and has a fast closing kick in the last furlongs. It might be the race is a furlong too short for her, but I am sure she will have to be watched at the end of the race.

7          3F            BLACK TUESDAY                       fairhaven2         7/1            STORM CAT X KINGMAMBO X SADLER’S WELLS

Record: 13 races: 8-3-1

I remember I discussed this youngster for the World Cup Ladies Classic and see she had a great race there finishing third. She has the same runningstyle as GREY WORM and this will be the second time she will compete with elder horses. Since the best horses run in the Breeders Cup this might be her chance to show what she has got and I have a high esteem for her. I am sure we will see this filly a lot more in the near future. She will be ridden by highclass jockey Townsend.

8          4F            ERRTU                           bigiron              7/1            Gold Legend x Sadler’s Wells x Alydar

Record: 26 races: 6-5-4

Third foal of nonowner retired mare ALYDAR SHAFT who has given birth to two Stakeswinners and one Graded Winner. She is running for wellknown trainer Knightmare and is at over 300000 simdollars in earnings. She debuted at dirt but then was switched to turf for a sequence of twelve maidenraces. I bet her trainer did almost give up on her, but the new try on dirt was successful and she finally broke her maiden mid 2006 in her 14^th try. She was rested for almost half a year and raced in some dirt allowances where she finally made the progress. She won two in a row end of last year and stepped up this year to run in Stakes and Graded Races with good results: earlier this year she finished second two times in a G2 and a G3 but her first Stakeswin dates back two races. She now has won two Stakes in a row (minor Stakes) over 10.5f and 9.5f and gets another try in Graded company. She might do well since the distance seems to suit her. With a lot of the better competition in more prestigious races she has a good chance today and this is reflected by the odds.

9          3F            JACOBITE BEOWULF            gsrprize2          53/1            Footstepsinthesand x General Meeting x Seeking the Gold

Record: 10 races: 2-4-0

Second three year old in this race and her trainer looks to be a lot more optimistic than the bookies are. Honestly she is racing way above her level hear: she only just cleared her NW2L in a 93 Speed, never raced Stakes – let alone Graded – before and also never faced older horses. I think some more allowances would not hurt her and it also still looks like she needs to be tested how far she can run. No chance today , but I admit I also do not think she will be last in this race.

10         5F            DISTANT SHADE                       twister               7/2            Ecton Park x Vaguely Noble x Tell

Record: 36 races: 9-9-6

At post ten we here have the highest ranked mare in this race: ranked at place 17 and just missed the boat in the Breeders Bowl we have a scratchbred Ecton Park foal with 641,000 dollars of earnings. This year she only finished off the board in her first race of the season and she has been posting +100 speed figures in four of her last five races. She recently posted a 108 speed in the G1 – Superfilly Handicap where she could not hold the lead to finish second. Not sure how good she now is at 10f but she has won before on that distance. As a favourite she also drew the topjockey of Ontorio so she is in safe hands.

11         7F            SHAKY LEGS                 bigspruce          12/1            Fusaichi Pegasus x AP Indy x Dance in Time

Record: 67 races: 15-12-10

Shaky Legs is the oldest lady taking the start today and she finally seems to show wear and tear signs. In her last five races her best place is a second place in still a respectable 99 Speed, but in the other four races she ended far behind the winner.  I really doubt whether she still has It and I’m sure she will try to take the lead from the start but can never keep up that speed till the end of the race.

12         5F            FORMAL AFFAIR              surlyn               9/2            Black Tie Affair x Nureyev x Danzig

Record: 36 races: 9-9-6

Formal Affair is specialized in 9 furlongs and has run nothing else but 9 furlongs in her last twelve races. Her biggest win dates three races back and was the G2-D-Day Distaff in a speed of 108 and seven races in a row she managed to finish on the board. Her last race was the World Cup Ladies Nine where she never really could make a fist and finished as ninth. I don’t think she did that bad, but the speed in that race was too high and her closingkick weighed too light. I think she is in a much better position this race to go for the win and is also helped by the fact the races is a bit longer.

13         4F            SO’K                             sdmf9               9/1            Empire Maker x Darshaan x Vice Regent

Record: 13 races: 5-3-0

Still a lightly raced four year old that seems to look very versatile: she won on 10 furlongs but also on 14 f in her last race. She also has been posting +100 speeds two times on 13f and 14f and as a frontrunner will be the one to beat in this race. If she can take a real good start it is well possible her adversaries won’t see her again before the end of this race. A very dangerous outsider in my opinion.