Broadway Dancer Heads BB Juvenile Market
Race 9 on this week’s Breeders Bowl card is the Breeders Bowl Juvenile. This race, unlike most of the other events on this superb card, generally tends to serve a double role. Not only is it the Grade 1 event which historically provides the likely winner of the Eclipse Award for juvenile dirt colts (only one previous winner has failed to secure the Eclipse crown), it also serves to lock in the early favorite for next year’s Bluegrass Derby. As a guide to the Bluegrass Derby, fortunes from this day are mixed, with a change of fortune somewhat overdue. Two of the first three winners of this race went on to claim American racing’s holy grail, but in recent years, this event has become something of a hoodoo event for
The Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile has been conducted in the sim annually since 1999.
The past winners (along with their Bluegrass Derby results) are:
1999 –
2000 –
2001 –
Dual Eclipse award winner – Winner of Derby.
2002 –
2003 –
2004 –
2005
2006 –
History indicates that the winner should stop the clock in around 1.43, and go close to registering a triple digit speed rating. Despite the ever present threat of rain, the club has assured us the program will go ahead on a fast surface. Bookmakers have had their jobs cut out framing an early market, installing the head of the class, Broadway Dancer on top at 6/1, but showing every runner due respect. Crease Infraction is the field ‘roughie’, but at just 16/1, nobody is prepared to take a risk with any runner. The depth of talented is further indicated by the fact that the last horse to ‘make the cut’, Adonai, is ranked number 25 in the dirt route juvenile division. The two million dollar Breeders Bowl Juvenile promises to live up to all expectations.
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:
The inside gate will be occupied by Broke Back, currently ranked number thirteen within the division. Despite having less experience at the absolute peak level of racing, his scoreboard of four wins and two seconds from six sits impressively alongside the formlines of any of his opponents here. Brought along more patiently than most of his rivals, he’s stepped through the grades, taking maiden, allowance, ungraded and Grade 3 races in his stride along the way. His route racing has encompassed his two most recent outings, and on both occasions he’s left virtually no doubt that the extra half furlong will be to his advantage. Unlucky in
Stall 2 is the starting slot for De Fu, hardly likely to become the victim of name abbreviation. With four wins from five trips to the track, Grade two victories in The Irish Futurity (ahead of Crease Infraction) and The Camel Juvenile, have seen him earn the number four ranking for his peer grouping. There are a couple of niggles which will be of some concern to connections pre-race, and these will be either overcome as he takes the next step, or they will need further addressing. His speed figures are a length or two shy of those produced by one or two of his competitors, which of course is of no great worry when you are winning. But the major question may surround his ability at this level. His only flop was at his only appearance at Grade 1 level, when he faded noticeably in the G1-Horsehead Juvenile. He bounced back strongly following that but these minor concerns are reflected in the generous offering of 12/1 available for this contest. He hasn’t reached his current rating without displaying undeniable talent. De Fu is a scratchbred son of Dehere / Fusaichi Pegasus / Cannonade, Bred and trained by
Gate 3 is the starting position for Ghost In A Dancer, lining up as the number three ranked colt in his division. His last run, when unsighted in the G1-World Cup, should be dismissed as an aberration, since his five runs prior produced a superb run of consistent quality performances. Were it not for that most recent flop, he’d be sure to be testing Broadway Dancer in the betting markets, and as it is, the astute judges have concluded that a repeat poor run is unlikely, installing him on the second line. Three consecutive wins, including the G2-Vermont BB Juvenile and the G2-I Shall Avenge Thee Stakes, saw him head the betting on World Cup Day, and connections are still scratching their heads as to what went wrong. His bank account of $660k, is the highest of any two year old colt in the sim, and he has earned that through top performances in top races. Ghost In A Dancer is a son of Ghostzapper, from Storm in a Dancer (Storm Cat / Fappiano). His Dam was a stakeswinner who retired early, this being the first progeny of the still four year old mare. Breeder / trainer Triscay is sole owner of both mother and son, and as part of the Ozsteve Stables group, any success this weekend produces benefits for the
Barrier 4 finds The Gun Went Off who sneaks into the field, qualifying just thirteenth for the race despite a perfect winning record of four from four. Patiently prepared by lenny12, this scratchbred son of Mineshaft / Danzig / Buckpasser had his first run back in April, winning his maiden on rain affected ground, the first of three consecutive wins on the tough
From 5 comes Broadway Dancer. Top qualifier, and with an outstanding record from his four starts, he’s the measuring stick in this race. The favorite in the early markets having secured the top ranking in his class from minimal appearances, he’s the one the others will be formulating tactics around. Happy to take a sit just off the pace and ideally drawn to do so, top jockey P.Harzheim is sure to settle him handy so that he won’t be giving away much of a start when the racing gets serious. Although he doesn’t boast an overall perfect record, having tasted defeat at his second run, since stretching out to the mile he’s been successful in both runs. He never looked in any danger last start, when he had the G1-World Cup under control virtually throughout. He held out the fast finishing Fleet Daisy in that lead up race, and the re-match here is sure to provide plenty of excitement. Broadway Dancer is a son of Kingmambo from Confrontation (Deputy Minister / Alydar). He’s the first foal of poorly performed dam who underachieved her genes by winning just two races and 24k. It will come as no surprise to see the highest qualifier prepared by the powerful Super empire.
Rahfleet jumps from 6, and at first glance appears to be facing a massive task, given that his only victory has come against maiden company. Of course, that’s just part of the story, as you simply do not qualify for this event without some fairly impressive performances at a much higher level of competition. This is where the study gets interesting. With just four starts under his belt, his potential remains hugely untapped, and the three runs against black type opposition have seen him finish second of twelve in an ungraded stake, third of eleven in Florida’s G3-Trixy Delight’s Special (won by Broadway Dancer) and a closing second behind Banking Fever in California’s G2-North Fork Stakes. He recorded the fasted closing sectionals in that event, proving that the slightly longer journey here should be to his advantage. Rahfleet is a scratchbred son of Northern Afleet / Rahy / Storm Cat, raced by millerfar4, one of the dozen strong millerfarm stables group. The oddsmakers are showing plenty of respect for the number eighteen ranked colt, offering no better than 10/1. He’ll settle beyond midfield and will be given a great ride by A. Craig (25%). He is sure to be in the closing brigade at the business end.
Barrier 7 holds Fleet Daisy, who looks, as much as any of his opposition, to be patiently awaiting the lengthening of races available to the younger brigade. Half a furlong may not be much, but half a furlong last time out, when he recorded by far the fastest closing sectionals in the G1-World Cup, may well have produced a reversal of the exacta order. He has a number of factors in his favor here, while it’s virtually impossible to find any chinks in the armor. In six starts, he’s never failed to make the podium (one of eight runners able to make that statement.) He’s established himself at Grade 1 level, finishing third of fourteen in the Horsehead Juvenile (behind Pyralis, ahead of De Fu) and a motoring second to Broadway Dancer in the World Cup. His speed figures (dirt) improve substantially at each outing, and of course there’s the previously mentioned desire for more ground. Currently ranked number five in this class, Fleet Daisy is a son of Afleet Alex from Rhino Daisy (Affirmed / Nureyev). Mum was extra smart, winning three times in Graded races, and banking in excess of $800k. An Opus ‘exclusive’, she’s also produced dual stakeswinner Dragon Daisy (Awesome Again) and the handy, lightly raced (4wins from 8) three year old Camelot Daisy (Came Home). Opus is a member of the Barndog State Tag supporting, Moose Hollow Farm, and connections have every right to be full of confidence here. A closer from the rear early on in his career, he raced nearer the pace last start without suffering, so K. Ledwith has plenty of options in running.
From 8 comes Banking Fever, and a justifiable case can be mounted to state that this colt lines up with the one of the strongest form lines of all the runners. Despite being previously untried at Grade 1 level, he boasts five wins and a third from six trips to the track, and he stepped up to both Grade and route racing last time out with an authoritative run which is simply impossible to ignore. Critics may perhaps point to the fact that three of his wins have come in fields of minimum size, but of far more significance is the way he has performed on those occasions when his price indicated he was not expected to. His only loss, when beaten a length and a half in an unsuitably short Rigazzi Stakes, he was sent out ninth in the betting, but soundly accounted for all but two of his rivals. Last time out, when victorious over Rahfleet in the G2-North Fork Stakes, he was at double figure odds with seven opponents at shorter quotes. He simply keeps stepping up to the mark, and finding whatever is necessary on a consistent and sustainable basis. Banking Fever is a son of Strike The Gold from Banker Babe (Boston Harbor / Maria’s Mon), the first foal of a moderately performed winner of four minor races. Breeder / trainer Dundy is a supporter of Minnesota Downs through the Dundey Acres establishment, and it will come as no surprise to see the yellow and red colors once again producing just what’s required at the business end of the event. If nothing else wants the lead, he’ll probably set the pace, but he has the advantage of not needing the front. The bookies respect the current number seven ranked colt, keeping him safe at 9/1, and T. Loesch in the saddle will afford him every opportunity.
Barrier 9 holds Garden Society, a colt who despite a poor effort when first tacking graded opposition, returned to the higher level of competition last start with a performance which puts him in here with an undeniable chance. Although at first glance his form card may look a little erratic for this class of event, closer examination proves that there is really just the one glitch, and the three wins and two seconds from the other five represent a solid grounding for this race. Solid positives include the fact that he’s been running on at the end of every race, always nice to note as the trips lengthen. At his first route run, last time out in the G2-Darling Squash Futurity, he finished over the top of
Pyralis starts from 10. He’s the unknown quantity in this event. Obviously this race is the pinnacle of the year for juvenile colts, but this bloke is bravely putting his reputation square on the line here, having solidly established himself as the sim’s premier young dirt sprinter thus far. Perhaps a brave jump for an initial tilt at route racing, but his pattern in previous races suggests that he’s probably more than up to it. Three starts back he took out the seven furlong G1-Horsehead Juvenile (Fleet Daisy ran third), followed up by an unlisted seven and a half furlong stakes in
Adonai lines up in 11, lucky last in the quest to gain a start. There can be very few more consistent juveniles in racing, given that he’s finished ITM in every one of his seven starts. He’s one of those runners that you know you can find plenty of arguments against, but something just tells you to be careful, because he simply doesn’t put in bad runs. He’s only won two of his seven, but one of them was the G2 – Faber College Juvenile. He’s finished third in both his route attempts, just astern of Broke Back in one of them. That’s a negative? The others have stronger speed ratings, but this bloke is always thereabouts. My gut feeling is that he’ll be handy in the run (hardly rocket science), but with a heap of storming closers behind him, he’ll get caught up in the wash. Adonai is a son of Afleet Alex from Racey Cap (Capote / Raise a Native), the third, and by far best performed foal of a stakeswinning dam part owned by the owner / trainer Theprofit. P.Bangs will give him every opportunity and although I just feel several others have more upside, he’s sure to be in the firing and a forward showing would come as no great surprise.
Crease Infraction exits the 13 barrier and despite winning just his maiden from six starts, he brings some fairly handy form into this. Of course, he needed to perform well against the cream of his peers simply to qualify for the field here, and although he has a couple of infractions to overcome, he’s yet another example of the strength and depth to be found in the line up. The event which secured the most points on his quest towards this appointment was a most impressive second in
From the outside barrier emerges Smart Off, a colt whose raw speed numbers are as yet a tad short of the likely requirement for this race. Connections will be saddened by the state of the going, given that his two runs on affected ground resulted in an allowance second and a Grade 2 victory in the BTB Cup, the run that is responsible for the majority of the points which have earned him his current number ten ranking in this peer group category. His overall result sheet of two wins and two seconds from five demands that he be treated with a fair amount of respect here, and it would be easier to overlook his one failure, were it not at his most recent outing. He was most disappointing last time out in the G1-Sparkling Wines Stakes, when finishing almost ten lengths behind Broke Back, but that may have been an aberration. Smart Off is a son of Smarty Jones, based on Baltic Prince (Danzig / Deputy Minister), himself twice a winner at black type level. Don’t be at all surprised to see this colt setting the pace, but I fear he’ll need a lot to go his way to be able to hold off the closers. Trainer / breeder Cdragon is a GR Simsters supporting member of Twoofus stables, whose barns also support Delpenn
Summary: There’s not a lot of previous direct competition between these talented runners, with most of the significant lead ups containing just two or perhaps three of the runners who have progressed to this finale. I’ve watched a number of replays and cannot get over the most recent performance of Fleet Daisy. He’s my top pick in an incredibly even event. You don’t put your top sprinter tag on the line without good reason, so I’m putting Pyralis in for second, and you don’t get the top qualifying position without earning it. Broadway Dancer for third. Clearly the chances in this supreme event do not end there. Broke Back (last start impressive Grade winner), The Gun Went Off (only unbeaten runner), Banking Fever (looking for four in a row) and Garden Society (super impressive last start) are all genuine threats.
The Market:
6/1 – Broadway Dancer
7/1 – Ghost In A Dancer
9/1 – Banking Fever, Garden Society
10/1 – Broke Back, Rahfleet, Fleet Daisy, Pyralis,
Qualification Order (Class Rating Position):
Broadway Dancer – 1
Ghost In A Dancer – 3
De Fu – 4
Fleet Daisy – 5
Banking Fever – 7