Cavalcade Cup Juvenile Turf

California will be the site of the 4th running of the NWRC Cavalcade Cup Juvenile Turf at 1 1/16.  If history repeats itself this Saturday this will be one of the most exciting races of the day in California.  The last two winners have won by a ¼ of length with an exciting stretch in both races.  In 05 Leader of the Pack sat 5 lengths off the leader at the half mile pole and was still 3 lengths back heading into the stretch when it made its big move to win.  This was its first race on the turf and following this race it has been switched back and forth to dirt and turf numerous times winning only two races since.  In 06 Galileo’s Dream was mid-pack about 3 lengths off the leader at the half poll moving into the lead on the turn and holding off the closers in another exciting finish for this race with the best speed rating of an 87.  Galileo’s Dream was already a 2-time stakes winner and followed the Cavalcade Cup with a stakes win three races later and a 3^rd in the Grade III Broadside Stakes.  Today’s race features numerous runners who can easily match the speed numbers needed to be competitive in this race (81-87) and it seems this years crop has a better chance to be even more successful as 3YOs in the stake races.  In this preview I’ve added Grade Stakes Value (GSV) and the Mare points off the Sire and DamSire.  The dosage points include the DDS. 

PP 1  SIPOWICZ (6 2-4-0)  $47K

Roar x Sir Tristram

1.11  0.00

GSV 72.17

MARE 9-17

Like its namesake this horse is bred to run all day until apprehends its goal.  It took four attempts for this 2YO to finally break its maiden at 1M and its last two races also at 1M has recorded another win for OT magpies2.  In its last race this 7-1 choice on Saturday definitely needed more distance and today’s race gives this colt a fighting chance even though its best rating has only been an 80.  The style horse is perfect fit if a speed duel occurs because I expect this horse to be near back of the pack 3 to 5 lengths off the leaders heading into the stretch.  If there is a duel at the front this horse will crash the party.

PP 2  RED MONSTER (7 1-2-1)  $35K

Vindication x Sadler’s Wells

1.53    0.5

GSV 69.16

MARE 11-13

This 2YO will be making its first attempt at a turf race which doesn’t mean the bettors should overlook this because I have seen this happen before with success.  Its dosage shows some nice solid points which gives it solid turf breeding and it also has some hidden turf dosage from the sire side.  This sprinter has easily posted numbers in the 80s and should continue to see that type of number on Saturday.  It did well in the Grade III Montana Futurity finishing third but not so well in the Smackdown III at 7 furlongs on the dirt.  The finish in the Smackdown might be why OT hihosilver has decided to give this 5/2 early morning favorite a try on the turf.

PP 3  WICKEN FEN (4 1-1-0) $25K

Sakhee x Came Home

1.91  0.44

GSV: 64.87

MARE: 16-11

This will be its first attempt at a route race but looked very strong in its last race when it broke its maiden at 7 ½ furlongs posting a blistering 86.  This nicely bred 2YO colt has come alive with the switch to the turf two races back by OT squirrel6.  Its running style of sitting 3 to 4 ½ lengths off the leaders heading into the stretch bodes well for distance runners and with its great kick based on its last race proves that it has the stamina and determination to win.  The jock selection is disappointing for this 7-1 choice.

PP 4  ZAMTRICAL (6 2-3-0 on the turf 4 2-2-0)  $86K

Theatrical x Mineshaft

1.53    0.42

GSV: 75.20

MARE: 9-16

This 2YO colt is bred from game dam Zamshaft (D) who had 5 turf wins in routes including two stakes wins.  This beauty is bred for the turf also with a very nice stamina breeding which makes this race a perfect fit.  It broke its maiden three races back at 7 ½ furlongs but has lost ground in each of the last three races.  It finished second in the Grade III Flying Saucer Stakes in its last race losing by ¼ length after it had taken the lead into the stretch.  It should be facing easier competition today and I expect the 4-1 second choice, of the morning line, to press the pace in hopes of posting an 89 rating for OT zambaygo.

PP 5  CONTINENTALLY (2 1-0-1)  $19K

Monsun x Caerleon

0.82    0.1

GSV 75.52

MARE 6-13

This german sired colt is bred to go long on both the sire side and the dam side.  This 2YO is bred from the game dam Con Unit (B) who has also been the dam to 2 graded stakes winners and 1 stakes winner already in both turf and dirt routes.  This 2YO is also the half-sister of Congressional who is running in the NWRC Distaff.  This colt broke its maiden in its first race at 7 furlongs posting a nice 75 speed rating.  In its last race it was the favorite but the conditions were not in its favor as it was at 6 furlongs on a turf rated as good.  The added distance of this race should help the 7-1 choice but it is only coming in off of 3 weeks rest which is sometimes a negative for 2YO.  On a side note breeders will be watching to see if this match of Sire and DS is successful because lately these two are still there on Saturday night for a decent price. 

PP 6  FIERCE HEAT (5 2-1-0 on the turf 4 2-1-0)  $51K

Borrego x In Reality

2.34    0.79

GSV 60.6

MARE 11-11

In its first attempt on the turf this 2YO tired in the stretch at 6 furlongs, but since has always finished strong winning two of its last three races.  This colt comes in off an allowance for NW2L win at 1 1/8M posting very nice 83.  In that allowance race it was near back 4 lengths off the leader taking the lead into the stretch and winning by 3 ¼ lengths.  Another positive point for this horse is that it enters Saturday race with increasing numbers in its last 3 races, a very good sign for winners of stakes races.  The dosage rating and mare points show that this 8-1 choice should be a major factor in this weekend’s residency championship.

PP 7  DEMOCRATIC MOTION (3 1-0-1)  $24K

Librettist x Stephen Got Even

2.63    0.7

GSV 66.68

MARE 9-13

This 2YO comes from a lightly used sire that has already sired 3 stakes winners with one of these being on the turf.  This colt broke its maiden in its first attempt and OT victoryrun has been stretching her out ever since.  This beauty needs the distance because it will definitely trail the field 7 to 10 lengths off the leaders before making its move in the stretch.  It will be a threat from the back but it needs to increase its speed number of 78 to make a difference on Saturday.  It is only coming into the race on only 3 weeks rest but its style should allow the 8-1 choice to be sharp this weekend.  Librettist has been successful breeding 3 stakes winners already this year and Saturday it could add a fourth.

PP 8  SEEKING STORMY (7 1-1-1 on the turf 2 1-1-0)  $32K

Storm Cat x Seeking the Gold

4.00  0.85

GSV 75.40

MARE 13-8

This beauty broke its maiden last out at 7 ½ furlongs with an eye-popping 80 rating.  The switch to turf two races back has definitely benefited this horse.  Its style is strange considering the speed it possess in both the sire and mares since it races about 3 to 4 lengths off the leaders into the stretch before making its big move in the run for home.  The mixture of this sire and damsire along with the race being on turf should bother me, but I have seen Storm Cat sired horses do well on the turf and in routes.  It should improve its rating and with all of its speed it could go for the lead and possibly wire this field.  It will be interesting to see what OT bandinni plans to do with the 6-1 third choice of the morning line.

PP 9  THREE TEN TO YUMA (1 0-0-0)

Spinning World x Dehere

1.75    0.36

GSV: 72.38

MARE: 12-10

In its only race it was certainly not as sharp as OT early had hoped as it loped along with a 63 making it the true long shot at 14-1 on Saturday.  It did pass tiring horses in the stretch and showed some life at the end as it closed to 6 lengths of the winner finishing ninth.  The breeding of this horse screams that it can go long with its points in the professional category.  This will be a big jump for this young colt as it will need to improve by at least 25 points to be up with the leaders Saturday.

The question is can the favorite Red Monster stretch out to today’s distance, it’s breeding says it should be able to, but with the higher odds for the others in the race I think it might be best to look elsewhere.  Almost from the beginning I’ve liked Wicken Fen and Zamtrical along with Democratic Motion.  A rested Zamtrical should solve the fade problem and I truly believe the race turns on whether or not Seeking Stormy tries to wire the field.  If that happens it’s a whole new race.

4 – 7 – 3 – 8