Cavalcade Cup Distaff

All year long O/T’s dawqpound and squirrel have been awaiting this much anticipated rematch between last year’s top two finishers in the 06 version of the Distaff, but will there by another story to write about on Sunday.  The 4th running of the Cavalcade Cup Distaff at 1 1/8M for 3+ fillies and mares will see some of the top runners of the NWRC take the course in California Saturday.  This race has historically seen horses that need to run somewhere between 97 and 103 if they hope to be in the money.  The record for this race was set last year by A Bowl And A Mare with a 103 who happens to be in this year’s field hoping for a repeat performance.  The first champion was Smokey’s Chant, when the race was called the Classic in 05, who came into the race riding a win streak of 3 races including the 05 Grade III County BB Handicap.  This race will be remembered for Smokey’s Chant racing 7 ½ lengths behind the leaders and half poll before it began making its move and winning easily by 2 lengths.  This young filly followed this up with 3 wins in its next seven stakes races; including a 4^th in the Grade I Delaware Distaff.  Last year’s champion A Bowl And A Mare was a 2-time stakes winner entering the Cavalcade.  Last year as many recall this one pressed the pace taking the lead on the turn and driving to a 2 ½ length victory.  This filly followed the Cavalcade win with a stakes win next out but has struggled lately.

PP #1 CONGRESSIONAL (4-1)

40  11 – 8 – 8    $875K

Storm Cat x Caerleon

What a great older mare that hopes to avenge last year’s loss in the Cavalcade Cup Distaff to A Bowl And A Mare.  In 04 it raced only nine times winning 6 of those races which included the Grade III Annie Oakley Stakes.  In 05 it won 3 of its 10 stakes races, but two of those wins were the Grade III Bringing Up the Rear Classic and the Grade II Larry Laffer Stakes.  This year it has mainly raced in allowance conditions; while running in only two stakes races.  Last out it won a stakes race with a switch in running style.  This switch by O/T dawqpound has it running mid-pack about 2-3 lengths off the leaders before making its move in the homestretch.  This new style, having one of the top jocks onboard and being rested for 5 weeks will help it Saturday as I expect it to post somewhere around a 103 rating. 

PP #2 DANE MAGPIE (9/2)

39  12 – 7 – 6    $252K  

Fusaichi Pegasus x Halo

This older mare has only earned $225K which is low in regards to how many races it has raced in.  The main reason for this is that O/T punter34 has been satisfied racing this horse in allowance races in which has 10 wins.  In its 5 previous stakes races it has a second.   This horse has won its last two races at today’s distance with today potential of earning a 98 very possible for this front runner.  I expect this horse will try to go for the lead, but it has a tendency to tire in the stretch which poses some problems for Saturday.  The last four races has seen this 5YO mare post declining numbers, another bad sign, and will be running on just two weeks rest.  The potential to post a triple digit rating is there but that has only happened before when coming off of three weeks rest. 

PP #3 EXCLUSIVE AIR (20-1)

19  5 – 4 – 2     $270K

Elusive Quality x Capote

This young filly has won $270K for O/T pointblack already in just 19 races. As a 2YO it was lightly raced (7) winning three and finishing in the money in three other races; while finishing 6^th in the 05 Cavalcade Cup Juvenile Fillies.  It started this year with a win in the Grade III Myocardial Infarction Stakes, but has struggled lately in its last 3 graded stakes races finishing no better than 5^th in the Grade I California Oaks.  This spring it finished second in the first leg of the NWRC Triple Crown and followed that up win a win in the second leg of the NWRC Triple Crown at 11 furlongs.  It seems to like the longer distances with its running style of being at least 5 to 10 lengths off the leaders at all calls hoping to catch the leaders in the stretch.  Its expected to run about a 90 which will be similar to how it did the Smackdown III when it finished 10^th posting a 92. 

PP #4 MY COVER STORY (2-1)

15  8 – 0 – 3    $293K

Mineshaft x Fusaichi Pegasus

O/T’s around the NWRC; especially those in this race said ouch, as this horse was nominated early Sunday afternoon.  It started racing as a 3YO winning three of its first four races.  After winning two of its first four allowance races O/T murray2 moved this 4YO into stakes competition winning 3 of 7 and finishing third in two others.  In the Smackdown III it finished 3^rd with a 106 and it has won 2 of its last three races including the Grade III County BB Handicap.  This reminds me of Smokey’s Chant that came into the 05 race after winning the same Grade III race and had nice little win streak going.  Both of those last two wins were at today’s distance with an average rating of 106.5.  It likes to be up front and an off-track will not bother this girl as it posted a 105 five races back on track rated as good.  This winner of six races in 10 attempts at route distances and the morning line favorite could pose another problem because if it gets on the lead like as it did three races back, say goodnight.  Oh one last thing, it has the top jock, staples, who has 16% win percentage this year riding this 4YO.

PP #5 MALIBU MINER (7-1)

48  11 – 10 – 4    $494K

Malibu Moon x Numerous

This 5YO mare broke its maiden in 04 and followed that up with 11 stakes races as a 2YO and young 3YO winning two and finish second three times.  In 05 she finished 5^th in the NWRC Triple Crown Derby.  The last two years this horse has been very competitive in the stakes competition racing in 31 races winning seven.  Most of those wins were in 06 as it won six and finished in the money 3 others while racing in 18 stakes.  This year it has one win and 8 in the money finishes in its 13 starts.  The last four has seen its average speed rating drop to 95 with declining speed numbers.  Early this year this mare was just missing finding the winners circle, but lately it has been fading badly which might be due to its switch in running styles.  This older horse needs to return to its style of being about 6 lengths off the pace at the half-mile pole and hit the stretch about four lengths off the leaders before making its run.  As with many others in this race it also competed in the Smackdown III finishing a disappointing 8^th but posted a 101 four races back.

PP #6 A BOWL AND A MARE (7-1)

30  9 – 7 – 1   $471K

Storm Cat x Forty Niner

This expensively bred 5YO mare has rewarded O/T squirrel with $471K in earnings in just 30 races.  It dabbled in the stakes competition while it successfully navigated itself through the allowance conditions.  In August of 06 that changed; when it began racing exclusively in stakes races.  In its last 11 stakes races it has four wins and two seconds.  It won last years Cavalcade Cup Distaff using the style that has served it well by pressing the pace and taking over the lead at the top of the stretch.  This summer it posted three triple digit ratings but lately it has seen declining numbers following seventh place finish in the Smackdown III with a 102 speed number.  Another concern here is that it has been raced in a 7 ½ furlong affair and made a trip over the turf prior to Saturday’s race making me wonder if O/T squirrel is experimenting to find proper race conditions for this mares 10th win.

PP #7 TITANIA (7-1)

13  5 – 2 – 2    $163K

Kingmambo x Cat Thief

This is another lightly raced 3YO hoping to defeat older girls Saturday.  This filly was bred to a G rated mare and has returned $163K for O/T baqur just this year.  This youngster broke its maiden in its first race of 07 and has enjoyed great success as it hopes press for the lead and could go wire to wire Saturday.  It has won its last two races and it started this mini-streak by posting a 106 at today’s distance.  In the Smackdown III it jumped into lead heading into the stretch only to give way and finish 3^rd with a 103 rating.  It has faced smaller fields than others in this race, but I still expect it run a nice 101 number on Saturday if not better.

PP #8 DIAPERWIPERSNIPER (24-1)

32  3 – 7 – 3    $48K

Foresty x Coronado’s Quest

OT acrylic picked up this nicely bred 4YO mare for $4K in a claimer but in 22 races it has won a starter allowance for $10K at 1 ¼ as a 3YO.  It has competed in 15 allowance condition races with four seconds and a third but no wins.  This horse has yet to find its right distance which explains it high odds for Saturday.  I expect this horse will post somewhere near an 89.  Watch for this horse to be snuck back into the claimers so that it can cash more starter tickets in the next year.

PP #9 BIG COZZ (45-1)

18  2 – 1 – 4   $76K

Cozzene x Bering

This 3YO took six tries to break its maiden and another four tries before winning an allowance race.  O/T bigeasy has been very aggressive with this horse racing it in six stakes races of its next eight races following the allowance win.  It finished third in the Grade I The A Fool And His Money Soon Part Stakes with a 93, but nowhere near that in its next seven races.  It ran in the Smackdown III at 1 1/2M on the turf which it finished 15^th.  This filly has mainly limited its stakes competition to 3YO only and Saturday it faces tougher older group.  Once this beauty gets a few more allowance wins under its saddle expect it to be more of a threat in stakes races.

PP #10 FASTER N RAIN (11-1)

13  4 – 3 – 1   $52K

Rainbow Quest x Fusaichi Pegasus

This is a lightly race 3YO that has earned $52K as it attempts to challenged the more experienced horses in today’s field.  After breaking its maiden it won 3 allowance races in a row against smaller fields.  It wants to race near the front and has yet to post triple digit speed rating in its career.  In the Smackdown III this year it finished 9^th with a 94 which is what I expect filly to post this Saturday.  It has no wins in its last seven races including it’s only off track race (sorry for the pun), but does have two seconds in its four stakes races.  Another interesting aspect is that it drew the number 2 jockey for the ride making me wonder if O/T seeya has something special planned for the others in this field.

The time has arrived for the REMATCH of last year’s exciting finish, but a couple other horses hope to spoil their fun.  The way I see the race breaking down is that My Cover Story and Congressional will be in the mid-pack about 3 to 4 lengths off the leader while Titania hopes to go for lead hold off the closers in the stretch.  Dane Magpie and A Bowl And A Mare will also be fighting for that lead which gives the closers a much better opportunity to catch them as they tire.  It could be an exciting stretch run between My Cover Story and Congressional.  If Titania doesn’t get into a speed duel and holds back it could have enough in the tank to hold off the favorites.  No long shot winners here and I expect Congressional will have to wait another year as My Cover Story should win by 2 to 3 lengths.

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