Vroom Vroom and El Cajon Head Market in Italy
Race 15 on this weeks
The Wilted Petal Stakes has been conducted annually here at
The past winners are:
2000 –
Three progeny have all failed to fire
2001 – Dane Sky – capotey – 1.10.2 – 98 – Retired winner of $2m.
Stakeswinner Ziggy (Gulch), still racing well, is the pick of her four issue.
2002 – Moor’s Bluff – original – 1.09.2 – 113 – retired winning $763k.
Two year old colt Agareni Empire (Empire Maker), her only progeny to date, has won one from four.
2003 – Baylee’s Dreamer – fatattack – 1.09.2 – 112 – retired winner of $1.3m.
Stakeswinner Destined (Rahy) and SP Fright Flight (Ghostzapper) feature from her four foals thus far
2004 – Grass and She – heythere – 1.09.2 – 114 – retired winner of $1m.
Stakeswinner Grass Cat (Storm Cat), is the clear pick of her two offspring.
2005 – Tomato Magic – toplight – 1.10.0 – 98 – retired winner of $455k.
Two year old daughter Pink Fishie (Red Ransom), her first born, has one win from four.
2006 – Dance Seeker – rockriver – 1.09.2 – 107 – active winner of $1.6m.
History indicates that the winner will stop the clock in under 1.10, but the race has been taken out a couple of times with sub triple digit speed ratings, so tactics may yet prove the key. Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:
The inside gate will be occupied by Zaldsong, a most interesting runner. It would normally be very difficult to give credence to a filly who, two starts back, won a 15k starter allowance, and who, in fact, is still eligible for 10k starters. However this filly has thrived under her new ownership, and although not looking among the absolute top chances here, nonetheless she has plenty in her favor. Liking to race just off the speed, the barrier draw should allow her to take up a perfect sit on the fence. Her mile in 1.35.2 in the aforementioned starter shows she can go fast enough. On the downside, she’s not greeted the judge in six previous sprints, and she was well held in her only other tilt at graded racing. Zaldsong is a daughter of Unbridled’s Song from Graded placed Zalduendo Mining (Mining / Polar Falcon). She’s brought home a check in each of her seven runs for a1deekhed, and win lose or draw this week, she’s been a masterful claim.
From 2 comes Duchamp, who, like the filly drawn inside her, has appeared to grow another leg since changing addresses. Sacked by her original stable, despite winning two from seven, she’s proven a solid allowance runner for sirronny, winning twice, with a second and a third from five runs. She’s taken a huge leap forward this week, bypassing ungraded stakes and Grade 3 to tackle this penultimate level of competition. With an all time best speed rating of 95, she’s likely to need to improve that significantly if she’s to finish amongst the leaders here. Duchamp is a scratchbred daughter of Peintre Celebre / Ela-Mana-Mou / Round Table. The oddsmakers don’t hold her in great esteem, and on exposed form it’s hard to argue with them. She has been consistent in her efforts for her new yard, however, and, while not conceding her a winning chance, I won’t be surprised by a decent effort.
Gate 3 is the starting position for Fax at Dawn, a filly entering this event with a string of solid black type performances on the scoreboard. No stranger to the racetrack, she’s amassed twenty two runs for her owner breeder paydirt41, eighteen of those at stakes level or higher, and has failed to bring home a check from just two of those runs. She’s won four stakes races, earning in excess of $330k, while her graded form is two seconds, a third and three fourths from seven. Her most recent appearance saw her finish fourth, less than four lengths behind Nothin’ To Lose in the G1-Sun State Cup and that lead up event marks her as the only runner in this race dropping back in class. Fax at Dawn is the first foal from Red and Vine, an underperforming (1 from 24) Red Ransom / Ela-Mana-Mou mare. The mating with Roman Ruler has produced a result far superior on the track to her dam. Unlike several of her opposition this week, she’s thoroughly established her ability to compete ant this level, and connections have every reason to be confident in her chances of finally scoring the overdue graded victory.
Stall 4 is the starting slot for Woette’s Mount, a more than handy filly who has been mixing her surfaces, distances and classes with quite a bit of success. Her recent racing has all been over the route trips, but her performances have dropped off a tad since a couple of most impressive allowance wins in January and February. A return to the shorter races may be just what’s called for, as her three turf sprints which rounded out her juvenile season, returned a win and two seconds, all against black type opposition. Woette’s Mount is a daughter of Mountain Cat, from Karyn Again (Lemon Drop Kid / Gone West). She’s the first foal of a six figure earning winner of five from thirty three. Juvenile half sister and stablemate, Woette’s Fantasy (Statue of Liberty), although winless from six, is showing good signs on the track. Now back to this race; of some concern is the fact that her highest speed ratings to date have been mid-nineties, but totje is returning the filly to conditions where her exposed record is superior. The bookmakers don’t think much of her chances, but they may well be wrong. Do not dismiss her lightly.
Barrier 5 holds On the Ascent, returning to the sprint ranks after establishing herself over the middle distances in recent outings. A scratchbred daughter of High Chapparal / Miswaki / Never Bend, she’s recorded a win and two thirds from four recent black type tries, while failing to measure up at her first tilt at this Graded level of racing in the other recent race. She looked set for a bright future early on, with two wins from her first three races. The flop on an affected track was rightly ignored as she then ran a creditable fourth in the G3-Honey Dew Stakes. Back to allowances for a second and a win to round out the juvenile season. Beginning 2007 as she’d left off, with an allowance win, it was then time to graduate. Third and first in black type events followed before the only failure to earn prize-money, last of nine in the G2-Storm Dog Stakes. A tilt at distance didn’t work, but she still took home third money, and she was a tad disappointing last time out. Her speed ratings suggest On the Ascent needs a personal best to be a winning chance here, but, as mentioned previously, she’s only failed to bank a cheque once. She’s added nearly $200k to the elite2 stable by winning five of the twelve races she’s contested to date. The oddsmakers have dismissed her chances, no doubt based on raw speed figures, but don’t be surprised if she runs much better than her price would indicate.
From 6 comes Lemon in Lime, a multiple stakeswinning filly whose speed ratings are showing the upward trend which indicates that she can be expected to be in the mix here. Her three black type wins recorded from a racing career of just eleven starts, point to an ability to graduate to this higher plain, but she needs to overcome that hoodoo of her exposed Graded form. The two worst runs of her life have come in her two ventures into the Graded league. Beaten just over six lengths each time, she was ninth of fourteen in the G3-Aint Got No Bugs On Me, and seventh of fourteen in the G3-Blonde and Freckled Handicap. She meets the filly who comprehensively accounted for her last start, once again this week, so connections will possibly be hoping for improvement here, and a dip from her opponent. Lemon in Lime is a daughter of Kalanisi, from Lemon Kist an underperforming daughter of Lemon Drop Kid / Danzig. The third, and to date most recent, issue of the dam, this filly is the first black type performer from a family dating back to Your Deposit, a 1999 sim three year old. She probably needs to find a couple of lengths to be a winning chance here, but the lilmitsi trained filly looks good value at 14/1.
Barrier 7 holds Frontniner, a lightly raced filly clearly still on the up, coming into this race off a scorcher last time out, where her run was on a par with Vroom Vroom, the filly who shares the top line of betting for this race. She gave away a massive start in the G3-Blonde and Freckled Handicap, before matching late sectional times with the winner in the run home, but falling just over a length short. She’s had just the eight runs in her career thus far, and is shaping as a genuine topliner. Her first couple were on the dirt, but since switched to the grass she’s shown consistent improvement, handling the jump from maiden to stakes with consummate ease, and showing in her last couple that graded success is more a matter of when than if. Frontniner was bred by owner frontnine, who sent the stakes placed Evidently (Beat Hollow / Storm Cat) to Forty Niner. She’s been close handy at each of her last three, and although I have enormous respect for the filly drawn immediately outside, from a betting perspective, this one, at 8/1, is a more attractive proposition. She’ll give away a huge lead early, so the shorter trip may be of some concern, but expect her to be flying in the straight.
From gate 8 emerges Vroom Vroom, a winner of half of her sixteen career starts, and a multiple stakeswinning, quarter of a million dollar earner. Despite her record having been most impressive beforehand, it’s really only her most recent run which needs be the centre of focus when studying the form for this event. As already mentioned, she’d greeted the judge seven times before her last start, but in those wins it’s probably fair to suggest she’d done no more than was necessary to get home before her rivals. She’d picked up four ungraded stakes among those wins, but hadn’t extended herself to a triple digit speed rating. Last start she clipped a full second off her previous best time for the seven furlongs, taking out the G3-Blonde And Freckled Handicap, while beating a field containing three Graded winners and eight other stakes winners. Vroom Vroom is a daughter of Sakhee, the first issue from walshy’s exclusive Grade 2 winning mare, Katima (Kingmambo / Seattle Slew). Mum looks to be setting up a dynasty as a broodmare, with this filly’s younger half brother Maximillion (Theatrical) already a black type winner. She’s on the top line in early betting, and maintaining her form from last start is all Vroom Vroom needs to do here.
French Penthouse starts from 9. She’s a model of consistency who has never failed to bank a cheque in fifteen starts on the grass, and on eight of those occasions it’s been the winner’s share she’s taken home. A very minor cause of concern is her record against Graded company, where her two attempts include her worst turf result, fifth of fourteen in the G3-Ain’t No Bugs On Me. Her other run however was a better finish; second of ten in the G2-Neidermeyer Cup. Earlier this year she put six consecutive wins together, five at black type level. rlogans bred French Penthouse from scratch, using the blood of French Deputy / Pentelicus / Formidable. To say she’s looking to return to top form is perhaps a bit harsh, as her current form is most impressive, but that merely re-emphasizes her work earlier in the season. She’s being kept very safe in the market, understandably as she simply doesn’t run bad races, and she has the advantage of an excellent rider (J. Jubel) who will afford her every chance of victory
Gamegulch has drawn 11 and has chosen a solid assignment here, given that her last eight trips to the track were to compete in allowances, and she took home the winner’s check on only two of those occasions. Looking a bit deeper into her history, she has a couple of black type seconds on the record, having rounded out her two year old racing, and begun this years program, with those impressive runs. A scratchbred daughter of Gulch / Storm Bird / Rainbow Quest, she’s won four from fourteen, and earned just n excess of seventy thousand dollars for the loveofgame barn. On the positive side of the ledger is the fact that Gamegulch has taken home a cheque in all but one of her races, however this is negatively balanced somewhat by the number of small fields she’s met. Looking again on the bright side, back on the grass for her last two, she’s returned career best speed ratings. She needs to add a few numbers to those ratings to be competitive at this level and some recent black type exposure may have led to more confidence in her ability to feature this week.
Susie ER exits the 13 barrier. She’s established herself as a black type performer, shown she can produce the type of speed likely to be required for this, and, following solid grounding, appears ready to take the next step in the quest for graded success. Beginning her career on dirt, she was capable without looking a star during her first seven runs, all of which saw her on the podium. Although the results were not as steady once she switched to the grass, her improving speed ratings inspired connections to persevere. It’s the four most recent runs which have seen her mature into the filly who rates plenty of attention in this. Following a handy allowance win, she returned to stakes racing, far more prepared than at her previous foray earlier this year. A winner then, her last two have seen her finish runner up. That triple digit rating last start cemented her status a genuine member of the black type club. Susie ER is a bred by a mating of Barb’s Leslie (Brahms / Storm Cat) with champion sire A.P. Indy. Barb’s Leslie was an early-career stakeswinner, before trading stables three times and ending her racing days for erracing, then being sent of for this successful union. A repeat of her last run would make the 11/1 on offer most enticing.
Drawn the outside barrier is Cap Polonia, a filly with an iron constitution. With a record of twenty four starts already, she’s currently racing in arguably the best form of her career. A stakeswinner, and three times stakes placed at two, she struggled a bit earlier this year, mixing stakes and allowance racing, before getting back into the groove more recently. A winner of both stakes and allowance from her last five, she’s going to need a career best effort this weekend, against some very smart opposition, but she has shown previously that she is capable of putting in a very good run. She’s a dundey trained daughter of Brahms, from Wood Butchering (Capote / Woodman), a dual stakes winning dam of five runners: Two stakes winners, another two stakes placed and a maiden two year old. Cap Polonia, as indicated by her price, cannot be supported with any great confidence in this high quality field, but if the breaks go her way she could be in the mix at the business end.
Summary: There are many chances here, as indicated by the market which has equal favourites at 5/1 and six runners under double figures. I feel the G3-Blonde and Freckled Handicap is the strongest form line into this race and lightly raced Frontniner may have gained the most from that run. At 8/1 she represents exceptional value and I’m tipping her first. Nothing could be taken away from the winning effort of Vroom Vroom in the same event. She’s my second selection. Looking for a bit of value to round out the selections, I’m torn between Fort Golden and Suzie ER. At the more juicy odds of 11/1, Suzie ER gets the nod
The Market:
5/1 – Vroom Vroom,
6/1 – Fax at Dawn
7/1 – French Penthouse
8/1 – Frontniner
Qualification Order (Class Rating Position):
French Penthouse – 11
Vroom Vroom – 16
Fax at Dawn – 23
Lemon in Lime – 49