Turf Routing for Babies in the Grand Critter

The Grade III Grand Critter is the second of three featured graded stakes for two year olds at Ostend.  The two fillies and seven colts will be going an even mile on the firm turf.  It’s an inexperienced crew, averaging very than four starts apiece and with only six routes in their collective past performances.  It’s a field that left the maker of the morning line tossing his hands in the air and assigning different odds more because of inertia than any insight.

Here is a look at the field:

1. ROCK THE BUDA(KY)  (ROCK HARD TEN x STORM CAT x SADLER’S WELLS)  bred and trained by Vicki (Twoofus Stables, 14%)  Odds: 4-1

This brown filly has been installed as the lukewarm favorite against the boys.  She won her lone start and that came convincingly from off the pace in a full field of fillies.  The yielding surface may have slowed her, but her winning time was a full two seconds slower than the average winning time of the Grand Critter.  It can’t be ignored that she has route experience and more than solid breeding.  Stable ships her all the way from upstate New York for this.

2. NEW DEAL(AUS)  (SPINNING WORLD x DOME x TIME TO EXPLODE)  bred and trained by azbear (CVBear Racing Empire, 11%)  Odds: 12-1

CVBear has been easing up on the stables’ numbers – there are actually four empty stalls.  Line-maker had a hard time picking a favorite, but for some reason singled this one out as the lone one to go over 10-1.  Colt did a nice job of persevering for second place after dueling through the early stages of a tough sprint stakes.  He earned a competitive figure in that one, and the barn makes a reasonable first try around two turns.  Tough to know how he’ll handle it.  Sire has had many turf routers, but dam was mostly a sprinter.  Doesn’t deserve to be the favorite, but doesn’t deserve to be singled out as not having a chance either.

3. GENEROUS DREAM(ENG)  (GENEROUS(IRE) x GALILEO (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN)  bred and trained by supapogs5 (Pogo Racing, 14%)  Odds: 6-1

You have to love how this one has been handled.  He’s gone a bit longer against a bit tougher every time and has two wins in three starts to show for it.  Last time he tried a mile for the first time and looked very sharp in taking down a full allowance field.  He earned the highest speed figure in the field that last time and he’s bred to be a route specialist.  Only question is allowance to graded stakes class jump.  Snags the best jockey, and looks like the one to beat.

4. RELAUNCH THE GOLD(TUR)  (STRIKE THE GOLD x LEO CASTELLI x RELAUNCH)  bred and trained by babygirlz (Belair Stud, 3%)  Odds: 6-1

With a second and a fourth in two previous graded tries, he’s the only one in the race that has shown success at this class level.  He does try a route for the first time after five sprints.  Dam was purely a sprinter, and sire has had success at all distances, but is not known as a turf sire.  His speed figures have decreased as he’s gone farther than six furlongs, so we’ll prefer others.  Barn had the fourth highest rated runner in the field, yet booked a 4% jockey.

5. FRIDAY HARBOR(KY)  (STORM CAT x DANZIG x COASTAL)  bred by bigmoose, trained by diabolical (Squirrel Stables, 2%)  Odds: 6-1

Squirrel is launching a contest that will show how hard it is to have success with a new stable.  We may already know.  Look at the 1 for 42 start of the diabolical barn run by the more than capable Squirrel.  And not many new stables have horses with Storm Cat and Danzig in their lineage.  After three starts in sprints, this filly got the barn its lone win when she tried a mile two races back.  Further improvement against boys in a New York listed stakes motivated the $10,000 shipping charge for this.  She’ll be prominent early at least. 

6. CAPTURE THE MOMENT(IRE)  (KODIAC x KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW)  bred by cashedup, trained by Roberto (Theatrical Stables, 19%)  Odds: 8-1

After two runs on the dirt, this one returns to the grass where he is two for three.  He is yet another to try routing for the first time.  Kodiak is a first year sire out of formidable turf sire Danehill.  Dam retired after three winless starts.  Capture’s speed figures are light compared to several others in here, but the return to turf may wake him up.  He split the field after leading early in his lone graded try.  Recently he’s been running in the money against six-colt listed fields.  Anything this trainer enters deserves respect.

7. HERE’S TO BEISBOL(IRE)  (AZAMOUR (IRE) x BARATHEA(IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN)  bred by deadman, trained by zzz2912 (23%)  Odds: 6-1

New barn has nine two-year-olds.  It has achieved that impressive winning percentage after 23 starts despite having only two of those nine breaking their maidens.  Here’s To found a four horse NW2L allowance last time and easily prevailed as heavy favorite despite running as a maiden.  He runs into much tougher here, but there is hope.  That last race was at a mile, and he seemed to love the distance, running in a time that trails only Generous Dreams’ at eight furlongs.  Further improvement makes him a threat.  (I don’t know the reason for the tribute to Donny B in the colt’s name.  I wish I did.)

8. CARDBOARD COFFIN(KY)  (COZZENE x SADLER’S WELLS x RAINBOW QUEST)  bred and trained by rollsally (12%)  Odds: 5-1

Second choice in the betting earned the second highest speed figure going seven and a half furlongs last time. Cozzene as the sire says he should just get better with the extra sixteenth.  Dam wasn’t much of a runner, but she seems to have passed on some powerful genes.  Jockey won this race in 2004.  Closer gets speed to run at.  Major chance.

9. DON’T STOP THE NOP(KY)  (BANDINI x A.P. INDY x KINGMAMBO)  bred and trained by elnop (Elnop Stables, 13%)  Odds: 7-1

He’s been showing steady improvement, and when he tried his first route last time out, he handled the small field easily as a 6-5 choice should.  Dam was strictly a dirt runner and first year sire Bandini, third choice in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, so far has produced much more on dirt than on grass.  Nevertheless, barn was quick to discover this colt’s preference for the lawn.  Faces tougher here than he’s seen in the past, but he shows solid trends.  Very hard to figure out what to do with him in this race.

Summary.  With all the confidence of someone who has correctly predicted one winner in his last 47 previews, I’ll recommend Generous Dreams / Cardboard Coffin / Friday Harbor