Grade I Scottsdale Slayer: Marathoners to Travel Two Miles in the Phoenix Heat
It’s a bit of a reunion in Phoenix for the Grade I Scottsdale Slayer, as all three horses that hit the board in last year’s race have returned to Arizona for this year’s running. They’ll meet up with division-leading mare CONNECT THE SPOTS, as well as several others in here that have a shot at the victory.
(1) PIONEERSOPIONEERS (owner asrstar, 7/1) returns to the States after spending the summer in Asia, and it was a very successful trip to say the least. She is fresh off an absolutely dominating performance in the Group II Breakdown in Hong Kong, besting a field of eleven by over eight lengths. Prior to that start, she won comfortably in the Group III Long Walk Home. There was virtually no early pace in either race, which allowed her to set her own pace. Many of the horses in those two races are in this field, but there some fresh faces that may try to press the early pace. Even so, this filly is talented enough to be a major threat to win this race.
(2) DANGEROUS MAMBO (owner raracing, 13/1) is one of those fresh faces that may try to challenge PIONEERSOPIONEERS for the early lead. She is fresh off an allowance race victory at 12 furlongs last month, beating a field of five by over five lengths. That being said, the thing that sticks out to me is that despite winning 10 out of 30 lifetime starts, she is 0 for 5 at the two-mile distance. She just doesn’t seem to have the stamina to want to go this far, and given how fast the filly to her inside may want to go early, I’m not sure if she’ll have enough gas left in the tank. Might be worth a use underneath, but I’ll be surprised if she crosses the wire first.
(3) CRIES FOR OIL (owner bulbbloods, 11/1) is last year’s runner-up, and has not notched a victory since the race before that last July. She does have some impressive showings, though, finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Marathon against the boys, and also finishing second in the Equinics earlier in the year, also against open company. Her last two 16-furlong races have been solid, with both resulting in second-place finishes in graded stakes. Given her desire to sit way back early, she’ll need the early pace to collapse like it did last year. If a few horses mix it up early, she could be around to pick up the pieces again late.
(4) SEEKING AFFECTION (owner thethumb15, 9/1) has been very consistent of late, hitting the board in all of his races over the past year. He is in very good form right now, coming off a victory in the Grade III Saint Paul up in Minnesota last month. He is 3 for 4 lifetime at this distance, with his only loss coming back in March in the Grade I Thumb Route. He’ll try the tougher competition again this time, and I like his chances to mix things up with the leaders. He likes to sit just off the pace, which could put him in a nice spot at the end.
(5) YOU ARE (owner kaner10, 13/1) has had a light campaign in 2018, as this will be just the filly’s fourth start of the year. After wrapping up with two solid victories at this distance, she had a rough go of it in the Grade II Pittsburgh Stayer, finishing toward the back of the field well back. Given that result and the following three-plus months off, I suspect she either came up lame out of that race or needed some time off. Nevertheless, she has recovered very nicely, winning an allowance race in May and then drawing away to a dominating win in the Little Rock Stayer in June. The daughter of Uncle Mo seems ready to roll, and can win this race at a price.
(6) GOLD TICKET COTC (owner cotclaim, 13/1) is the defending champion of this race, but also has been busy chasing PIONEERSOPIONEERS around this summer in Japan and Hong Kong, finishing behind her in both of those races. She is coming off a victory in a time-restricted allowance race in Dubai, which featured a field of four that was sneaky good, with three graded stakes winners in that field. Even so, I’m not sure that effort would result in success against this group. Expect her to close some ground toward the end of the race, but I’m not sure she’ll have enough to get to the front again this year.
(7) MAKE A MISTAKE (owner mtk76, 9/1) is another alumnus of this race, finishing a close third in last year’s edition. She’s had a pretty solid year since then, racking up her first Grade I win back in March, as well as a nice second-place effort last December in a Group I. Lately, she’s been dabbling in some turf racing, and had a dominating win in a ungraded stakes back in February. Even her prep race for this event was on the turf, an allowance race in which she steamrolled as the heavy favorite. That race in March shows that she belongs with this group, so she could certainly have the talent to challenge the leaders late.
(8) CONNECT THE SPOTS (owner tgerk1, 9/2) is the class of this field, having rattled off six consecutive graded stakes victories from October to April, including two Grade Is. Since then, she had a bit of a hiccup in the Grade I Little Rock Slayer in late June, finishing fourth. Before then, her last loss was in this race last year, finishing a hard-charging fifth. Despite being the oldest mare in the field, she is one of the most lightly raced, owing that to a two year-plus layoff after her three-year-old campaign. Her talent is undeniable, and she is the leader of this division. That being said, I’m not sure this race will setup ideally for her at the end – it could set up similar to last year’s race.
(9) MEDAL LITE (owner wyndaway, 32/1) will be searching for her first victory in almost a year on Saturday, having struggled in stakes action for much of the last year. There are some nice efforts in there, including a solid third-place finish in a field of twenty last December in the Grade I Queen of Fillies Classic. Her two races at this distance have not been bad, but don’t inspire a ton a confidence against a field this strong. She has not registered a triple-digit SP since last November, which is a red flag to me. I suspect the best case scenario for this filly will be to finish around the middle of the pack.
(10) OUTBACK SQUID (owner outback9, 9/1) will be making graded stakes start number one on Saturday, but that does not mean she is not ready for this race. The daughter of Scat Daddy has won two out of her last three starts in ungraded stakes races, putting up a solid SP number of 108 last time out. I am a little worried about the distance, as that race was at 11.5 furlongs, and she has never raced more than 13 furlongs in her career. She likes the early lead, so she could make life a little more difficult for some of the leavers in this race. I suspect she’ll run out of steam by the finish line, but she could take to the longer and surprise here – a bit of a wild card.
(11) MEDAGLIA MARCI (owner liam3, 11/1) is another filly coming out of the Grade III Saint Paul in Minnesota late last month, and she had the early lead before fading to third by the end. Despite her fading late, she seemed to do better at the longer distance, and she’ll be a tricky mare to try to get a read on for this race. She’s had some success in overnight stakes races late last year, but has come up pretty flat this year, only hitting the board for the first time in that race last time out. If she brings that effort again, she could pick up a check once again.
(12) KOCHAM CIE TEZ (owner adschus14, 12/1) raced against the boys last time, finishing midpack in the Grade III Jacksonville Jug. She had a rough go in the Little Rock Slayer before that. Even so, she has a win the Grade II Turtle Bridge back in May, which featured a few runners in common with this race. She certainly seems built for these kinds of distances. It’s hard to get a read on her recent form, as she’s been up against some tough horses. It won’t get any easier here, which could make it difficult. Even so, if she brings some of the form she had earlier in the year, you can’t count her out.
(13) SOFIA VERGARA (owner puracrema, 10/1) is searching for her first graded stakes win, having notched a win in an overnight stakes race in June, which was at 14 furlongs. She actually has the top SP number in the field, a 115 that she ran in an allowance race last April. She hasn’t been running those kind of numbers recently, so she’ll find this to be a much tougher test than her most recent races. She has never had much success at the Grade I level, so I’ll see what she can do this time around before I can toss her into my top selections.
(14) DANGEROUS VOLATILE (owner curiostud, 10/1) is making graded stakes start number one, just like OUTBACK SQUID. She has won three out of four, including an ungraded stakes race at this distance last time out. That field of five was certainly not a field of giant killers, but it did show that she seemed to take to the distance. Given that it was not the strongest field, she may have had something left in the tank, which won’t be reflected in the SP number of 101. The filly on the rail has shown that offspring of Pioneerof the Nile can have success at these marathon distances. She could be a sneaky play in here.
My Picks:
(5) YOU ARE, 13/1 – Seems to have recovered nicely from whatever ailed here earlier in the year, and beat a solid field in her last race, which included the favorite in this race. Dangerous at a price.
(1) PIONEERSOPIONEERS, 7/1 – Comes into this race VERY sharp, with two dominating wins. This time, though, she may have some competition for the early lead. If that happens, she may struggle to hold the lead late. Even so, still a very strong win contender.
(4) SEEKING AFFECTION, 9/1 – Has been in solid form of late, and could be in a nice spot if the leaders get tired toward the end.
(14) DANGEROUS VOLATILE, 10/1 – This filly looks dangerous to me. She’s been beating up on weaker fields and seems to be having no issues with the longer distances.