2-Year Old Champ Looks to Get Back on Track in State Penn Derby

2-Year Old Champ Looks to Get Back on Track in State Penn Derby

Last year’s 2 year old champ ION MY WAY entered his 3 year old season with a lot of hype and to this point has fallen extremely short of those expectations. It would seem that his peers had matured and finally caught up to the talented colt. Through 5 grade one races on the dirt including running in all three Triple Crown races, ION MY WAY hasn’t finished better than 5^th which occurred in the California Derby. He also gave turf a try in the G2 Adam Gene in which resulted in an 8^th place 10 length loss. The one thing all of these races have in common are they were all longer than any race ION MY WAY took part in as a 2-year old, and up to this point he hasn’t shown any type of affinity for wanting more than 8.5 furlongs against cream of the crop 3 year olds. Maybe it’s the level of competition he’s been facing, or maybe it’s the distance, whatever it is I still believe he’s an uber-talented colt that can get back on track, I’m only of the opinion that it’s at a mile and a 16^th or shorter.

 

1.  MOUGAL MARCH (10-1)

(FARHH x MALIBU MOON x STORM CAT)

Trainer: jbcri38

Recently placed 2^nd in  the Star Prospector Dirt Route Stakes posting an impressive 111 speed fig. He’s won at this distance previously and looks like he fits in well here. He could take my money at 10-1.

 

 

2.  ION MY WAY (15-1)

(VAR x MIDNIGHT LUTE x INDIAN CHARLIE)

Trainer: drsafbreds

As mentioned above I think he’s a super talented colt, I just don’t think  he wants any part of anything longer than 8.5 furlongs at this level. However, this is by far a big class drop in in comparison of the 3 year old’s he’s faced this season which means he’s got a punchers chance.

 

 

3.NIZARI (5-1)

(GIANT GIZMO x TESTA ROSSA (AUS) x KRIS)

Trainer: Neolithic

He’s been consistently running against graded rivals dating back to April and has performed relatively well with victories in the G3 Barbara Walters Special & G3 Vinny Barbarino. He tried 9 furlongs once in the G2 Buckeye Derby and finished 5^th by 12. He’s another with questions on the distance but is one of the more accomplished runners in here.

 

4. SHOW ME NINE (7-1)

(GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER)

 Trainer: cougar

He was starting to close really well in the G3 Colorado Sophomore Classic before running out of room and finishing 4^th. If he’s going to get up in this one he’s going to have to make that final run a bit sooner than he did in his last.

 

5. REASSURANCE (18-1)

(CURLIN x DANZIG x ALYDAR)

Trainer: harrylaneexp18

He’s got back to back 2nds going 9.5 furlongs in a listed stakes and the G3 Chief Snow Handicap. He gets a bit of a cut back in distance and should still manage to be running at the front of the pack.

 

6. MAGIO (11-1)

(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x FRANKEL x KINGMAMBO)

Trainer: hrsescents

Based on the pedigree the talent level is there, but this is his first crack at graded runners and the 9 furlongs distance which leaves  a lot of questions surrounding this one.

 

7. HARBLAH (10-1)

(CAIRO PRINCE x WAR FRONT x KING MAMBO)

Trainer: balnkpoin1

He’s already shown an ability to run with graded company in his 3^rd place finish in the G2 Buckeye Derby. What’s interesting is his tactics have changed a bit as he’s been running out on the lead in his last two as opposed to sitting off the pace. This handicapper thinks his best chance will come from sitting just off the pace before making his move but we’ll see what blankpoin1 has in store for him.

 

8. CHRONONAUT

(ESKENDEREYA x UNBRIDLED x TOM ROLFE)

Trainer: nepenthe26

Kind of has a trend of good performance followed by mediocre performance. After such a big performance with a monster speed fig (113) in the G2 Big Liar I’m skeptical on if we’ll see it again though. His Stablemate sits right to his outside so maybe he’s the rabbit in here.

 

9. KERBONAUT (17-1)

(EMPIRE MAKER x TALE OF THE CAT x THEATRICAL)

Trainer: nepenthe17

He’s got a deep closing style in which he likes to come from about 15 lengths back before he starts picking up the pieces. There’s lots of speed to his inside and having his stablemate there to set a hot pace will certainly help his chances in burning out some of the others.

 

10. HELIANTHUS (6-1)

(CURLIN x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x A.P. INDY)

Trainer: mamaseals

He’s already won the G3 Affirmative posting a 112 and after leading briefly in the G1 Eddie Haskell finished a game 2^nd. He’s got a nice stalking style that might lend itself well here as he should get first crack on the pace setters.

 

11. THE FORMING STORM (8-1)

(DEEP IMPACT x STORM CAT x MISWAKI)

Trainer: simroscoe9

He gave 9 furlongs a shot in the Prospector Paunchi Dirt route and dominated, winning by 2.5 lengths. This is obviously the logical next step for a horse who’s steadily improving with every start. I think he could be a real competitor with his midpack running style.

 

12. TACTICAL BOX (13-1)

(UNCLE MO x SCAT DADDY x SAINT BALLADO)

Trainer: cowboyland

After three lack luster performances in the G2 Liar, G1 Labatts Ontario Oaks, and G2 Captain Hook he was given the old snip. Now this UNCLE MO gelding will run for the first time as a gelding with graded foes. I’m not sure what to make of him but I’m sure cowboyland knows what he’s got.

 

13. CRACKERJACK RIDE (12-1)

(RIDE ON CURLIN x STORMY ATLANTIC x UNBRIDLED’S SONG)

Tfon21

Having run 18 times in his career and not really seeing much of a break this horse seems to be of the old guard. While he has been a sturdy horse he’s only really ever run well once in graded company and that was in the G1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers where he finished 2^nd. However, since that cool February day he’s had three other graded runs in which he finished no better than 7^th by 7.5 lengths. Not sure he’s got enough left in the tank to make an impact here.

 

14. GIANT DOGWOOD (15-1)

(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x SEATTLE SLEW x MR. PROSPECTOR)

Trainer: squity

He’s about as blue blood as they come and is coming off of his best performance yet in the G2 Trial by Night Stakes that saw him finish 2^nd with a 111 speed fig. He’s got the breeding to run the 9 furlongs but the only attempt he ever made at doing it was a poor showing. Despite that after his last performance I’m a believer and think he’ll be able to run with this group.

 

COLUMNIST KISS OF DEATH

1. HELIANTHUS

2. SHOW ME NINE

3. GIANT DOGWOOD