The Old Man Comes to Turkey

The Old Man G2 in Turkey has brought 10 not so old men to the race.  Horses age four and up are eligible to enter and those who have are between the ages of 4 and 6.   This is a long 14 furlong race and will be competed on a fast dirt surface.

1.  Bomosh  16/1-This gelding may be hitting a spike in his career as he has raced speeds over 100 in his last pair of starts.  The first came in an allowance with the NW2L grouping where he trailed by 16 and missed by a head at the line going on the turf.  His last start was on the dirt where he put aside a dozen length deficit to win by close to two lengths on the dirt, his first career start on the surface.  He bypasses the listed stakes and will take on this G2 group as his first stake race appearance.   He could turn out better than the betting public thinks of his dirt ability making the long odds have some appeal.

2.  Lake Kyllachy  34/1-Broke maiden in mid-November going 15 flanks and put won easily in the field of six, rolling to the wire with a better than five length advantage.  He finished third in his last outing in the allowance ranks with NW2X finishing third at 12 furlongs and fading in the stretch to lose by 7 strides.  He has not hit the 100 speed mark yet and his last race with better horses was an opportunity to show his ability.  Taking a large jump into graded company may be too aggressive at this point of his career

3  Dark North Wind  19/1-Stake level races have been a challenge for this horse.  He’s raced in five listed and one grade race and has not had the pleasure of having a winning photo taken.  His best performance at this  higher level of racing was a third with three year olds in October, ’16 in the Placebo Dirt Stayer.  That was quite a while ago and his current form is of concern as his last four starts have resulted in finishing well back behind the winner by 11 or more lengths.  Form is shaking currently and he hasn’t been a threat with his past outings in stake racing which blur his chances to win here.

4  Dark Is Stormy  88/1-It took 15 starts and a 14 furlong race on a sloppy track for this colt to break his maiden.  He did this this past November in a rather weak group of runners as the 3/10 choice.  It was the lowest odds of his career and first time he went to the gate with odds below 4/1.   He followed that with another win in an allowance race with NW1X with a nice three length win at 7/2, now his second lowest odds.   He soars of the ranks of racing to this G2 race and that may be a bit much to take on as his best speed last year was 92  as others in this field are able to run in the 100 range.

5  Tiz Liam  5/1-This six year old had a rough season in 2017.  He has talent and is able to make up large deficits, with the biggest last year coming in the season opener, the Buckeye Stayer where he trailed by 20 at the half of the two mile race and chopped that to 5 and finished third.  But he is prone to disasters as was the case in the Monster Mash where he ran more than 20 lengths back the entire second half of the 14 furlongs.   He has hit speeds over 100 five times last year in 7 races which gives him a shot in this race.  Just a matter of whet//her or not he’s up to making a late run.

6  Back On The Trail  8/1-One career win in thirteen races does not look too compelling but this one has been knocking at the door.  Claimed for a $40,000 tag in mid-year, he immediately fired off 4 straight races with speeds of 100 with a career best of 111 during this period.  After a 7th in a listed stake, he bounced back with a second in a 13f allowance race.  He returned to listed stakes and came in 2nd in a 12f race where he secured his career best speed previously mentioned.  His last start was also with the listed stake race and another 2nd place finish with a 107 speed.  He’s finished 2nd his last three starts and is eager to get through the door.

7  Golfing  7/2-Took a long, long rest during 2017.  He started the season in last years running of the Old Man and ran flat, never contesting the lead and finished 7th, some 14 strides back.   He looks to improve on that outcome as he makes a reappearance this year.   After his unfavorable result last year, he was farmed for nearly 10 months before coming back and running in the 14f Hamburg Hall.  He ran very sharply, making a nice run after the leaders and finished second by a length and a 111 speed.  A very strong return after a long layoff.  He could put in an even better run this time.

8  Ozzy Goes Boom  7/2-Starting 2017 with a second and a win in listed stakes (and a 112 speed with that win), this 6 year old was promoted to the grade level.   He’s had four races in this highly desired level and has run speeds in the 101-103 range with a best finish of fifth.   He has struggled in this level but may find some opportunity in this race as about half the field has not been running speeds or not running with consistency at the 100-speed level and there is a lack of early speed.     It may not be easy, but he does have an opportunity to get something nice if he can put the pieces together.

9  Whitepark Bay  7/2-With the exception of one race, all his starts in 2017 were on the grass in in grade level competition.  That one race was a dirt allowance where he finished 2nd at 13 furlongs with a 101 speed.  He has run faster with speeds of 111 and 112 on the turf and it is possible he can score that on the dirt.  He’s a late runner and put that to work with his win in the Stars and Bars where he knocked that 112 speed.  That was followed with the 111 speed in the Sword Swallower where he rallied to take second.   I think he may be better on the grass, but he is not much worse on the dirt and I think he’ll do well here.

10  Camp Commander  9/2-Picked up out of $150,000 claimers after running a 109 speed in a mile race, he quickly expanded that to 113 in an allowance race and adding distance to 11f  and taking a win.   He moved to listed stakes this past May and won at 16 furlongs.  Since then, he’s been in the grade level cranking speeds of 100 to 108 with a pair of seconds and a third to his credit.   He’s moved up the ranks rather quickly after the claim but has shown himself to be competitive.  His last start in the G1 Big Apple was disappointing and if he can shake that one away, he’ll bounce right back.

This race totally lacks any speed.   Usually you can pick out one or two who will go to the front.  None of these will want to be there, so it will be intriguing to see who has to suffer on the lead.   My guess is that either of the two long shots Lake Kyllachy or Dark is Stormy (or maybe both) will be pushed out as leaders.  With that said, Golfing is my top pick.  He was surprisingly sharp after his long layoff and I’m thinking he’s ready to pop a big one.

Camp Commander has been doing well and I’m willing to forgive his last trip, making him my second choice.

I’ll add Bomosh as my third selection as he looked comfortable when running on the dirt for the first time in his most recent start.  It is a leap going from allowance to grade level, but this one could benefit nicely on the dirt.