The Grade III Denied Special

The weather in Vermont is just perfect for this weekend, and the fillies and mares running in the Grade III Denied Special will appreciate it, as they will be running the twelve furlong marathon distance over the good dirt. A field of ten is set to go to the starting gate, so let’s take a look at them:

1. HOSTILITY – 4 year old filly by Toccet – This is a filly that likes to be run close to the pace, so the rail post will be a plus for her. She has done her racing in allowances and listed stakes, and doing nicely in these, winning four stakes races so far. Her trainer bigrama has not changed anything in her training and hopes for one of his fillies’ better efforts. She will definitely need it in order to be competitive in this event. She is 1 for 1 over an off-track.
2. JHIQUI – 5 year old mare by Point Given – This is a deep closer, and even in these marathons, she will be coming from way off the pace. Late last year she was posting SFs which would have put her fighting for the win here. However, she has not been able to replicate those efforts, and trainer khalasar sends her to this graded event looking for some miracle that will revive her mare. She is 0 for 2 running in an off-track.
3. FUSAICHI KRISSY – 4 year old filly by Fusaichi Pegasus – Graded winner already and the number tow ranked filly on the dirt long category. This is a versatile filly which can run on the first flight, from the middle of the pack, and also has won from the back of the pack. There is not much initial zip in this race, so we think trainer danmancan will be instructing his jockey D. Fendlay Jr. to keep the filly very close to the pace. She has maintained her good form on the workouts and is my favorite to win here, at odds of 4-1. She is 2 for 3 with one second over the off going.
4. MOVIE IN TUX RYRY (IRE) – 4 year old filly by Theatrical (IRE) – Very honest filly that won the Grade II Long Winded Ladies Stakes at Delaware three starts back. She has won three other listed stakes, so we can see the 13-1 assigned by the Vermont odds maker is kind of an overlay, and bettors should take advantage of this. Her trainer ryry prayed to the rain gods to spray the dirt course, and he got his wish granted. She loves to come from off the pace, and it is not clear if the pace will be honest enough for her. She is 1 for 1 over an off track.
5. NUMBER ONE – 4 year old filly by Spinning World – This filly has been participating in listed stakes all thru the year, and except for the Alydar Inspector Special in Italy, she has not been able to run consistently in 2007. Furthermore, over the last two races, she has lost all interest, losing in both by double digit margins. Her trainer kronp is changing her training regime, looking for something that will wake her up. Anyway, she will have to improve on her best race so far to even fight for the minor award in here. She is 1 for 2 over the off going.
6. LIFESHAFT – 4 year old filly by Mineshaft – Filly that was doing very nicely in company slightly below this one. However, those last two races have been extremely disappointing, both at very short odds, casting some doubts in terms of her actual form. She is one who likes to go at or near the lead, and after analyzing this race, there is not much speed in here. Trainer lenny4 will instruct his jockey to send her right to the front and hope she can have enough to hold the closer’s final push to the finish. She is 1 for 2 over the off going.
7. RUNNIN’ REBEL – 5 year old mare by Red Ransom – Grade II winner in a race run over a sloppy course. Her last race was kind of an experiment to see how well she can adapt to the grass. Her performance was rather average, and understandingly, trainer lenny29 aborts and places her back to her preferred dirt surface. The twelve furlongs is a distance suited perfectly for her style of racing, and she should be placed not too far behind the early leaders. The good main course will only help her chances, as she is 1 for 1 trying the wet ground.
8. QUEEN OF THE RYCHE – 4 year old filly by Seeking the Gold – This filly is very lightly raced and clearly on the improving side. Trainer sdmf5 has been extremely patient with this filly, taking her one step at a time, getting to the point of buying allowances for her to run in. Now she is taking on the big girls of the graded ranks for the first time, and although we can think she is stepping way up in class, there is no doubt that she has sown the class and the ability to win in a group just like this one. Maybe she is lacking some seasoning, but there is no better way to acquire it than face the best of the best.
9. BLACK PLEASURE – 4 year old filly by Stravinsky – She is coming from a decisive win in the Ollie Rate Special, a listed stakes race at sixteen furlongs. She now takes a nice cutback in distance that should serve her well for this event. Her trainer semi is just sending her for gallops, due to the marathon she had to run four weeks ago. She should be part of the third flight in this event, and with a little improvement in the SFs posted so far, she can not be denied of a chance in this race.
10. XTREMELY GOLD – 6 year old mare by Touch Gold – This is by far the most accomplished horse in this field, with 22 wins in 32 lifetime starts, winnings of over $3.5 millions and multiple graded victories. Her last race was uncharacteristically bad, running more than twenty three lengths from the winner at short odds. Trainer grracers has given her a nice six week freshener, looking for her to regain that top form that we are used to see out of her. She likes to come from far back, and although she is not the same mare as a year ago, she still can have something left in the tank and dominate this field with her superior class.

MY PICKS: FUSAICHI KRISSY, QUEEN OF THE RYCHE, RUNNIN’ REBEL