Young Ladies Duel in Texas

Texas is home to The Dallas Stud Command  Stakes this Saturday.  This race is a Grade 3 over 7 furlongs on a fast dirt track.  The $125,000 purse has lured nine very nice 3 year old mares. 

Let’s see how the nine ladies look on paper.

EXILE IN GUYVILLE(AUS) (6/1) Trainer super7 brings this one in off a rough Grade 2 start where she finished 13^th.  This one has had numerous tries in Graded company without much success.  In regular stakes, she has won both of her tries in the last six months.  Two back, she ran an impressive 97 speed figure while winning The Mudreachs’s Glory Special over Saturday’s distance.  If she can repeat that number she is a strong contender.

THE TIME PROPHET(KY) (4/1) Trainer sighclone sends this one in off a very fast win in The Mob Moll Stakes.  In that race, she ran a 101 speed figure and won gate to wire at Saturday’s distance.  She has been rapidly improving and has won three in a row.  This is a big jump up in class but if she repeats that 101 or gets close she will be hard to beat. 

COUGHT YOU(KY) (6/1) Trainer bautista ships this one in from Maryland.  She comes in off a solid 2^nd place finish in The Mama Slew Memorial.  In that race, she ran a career high 95 speed figure on the lead.  She will have to deal with the early pace in this race and run her best or better to get a piece of this one.

DEAREST DEBBIE(KY) (5/1) Trainer theprofit5 brings this lady in from the Grade 3 Jockey Guild Stakes.  She was outclassed in that one and finished 11^th.  She has been in the money in all five of her sprints with four wins.  It has been some time since she ran this distance and in that one she only managed an 85 speed figure.  She will need a career best to win this one.

DEPDUB(MD) (12/1)  Trainer artsim brings this lady in off a race in The North Pot Handicap.  In that one, she ran an slow figure of 83.  The odds tell the story here.  She is overmatched when looking at her past performances.

HIGH ON CAPOTE(FR) (7/1) Trainer lawyerron brings this one in off a 11^th place finish in the Grade 3 Warfare Farm Stakes.  She was just outclassed in that very tough race.  Her best figure at this distance and a fast track is a 90 that she ran back in February.  Even that is not fast enough to beat the tops ones here.  She will need a career best to compete.

RAHY WORLD(KY) (7/1) Trainer nywinger ships this lady in off a 1^st place in The Exbourne’s Loveyou Memorial.  It was a nice closing effort and she managed a solid 92 speed figure.  With five wins in ten sprint races she much get some respect but will have to run faster to win this race but may benefit from a fast pace.

BIG RED CAT(FL) (6/1) Trainer ivantoga ships in from New York to try out these young ladies.  We will give her the benefit of the doubt and ignore her last two races.  Three races back she managed a 2^nd in The American Cat Stakes.  In that race, she ran a front running 95 speed figure.  That was her best and the only time this year she has ran above 90.  She is another horse that will have to run a career best to find the winner’s circle here.

ELPRADO EVENT(IRE) (5/1) Trainer ufsldowns sends this lightly raced filly in to try for a piece of the purse.  This one has finished in the top two in all six of her races.  That is a very impressive start to her career.  Last out, she managed a 2^nd place in The Fried Camcorder Special over Saturday’s distance.  In that she ran a solid 92 figure and just lost her lead in the stretch.  She is another need to lead horse in a field packed with those types.  She has the potential to move up on her last few performances but will have to deal with have to learn to rate.

My take:  The key to the race is pace.  A few of the faster horses in this race need the lead to win and that should cause a nasty speed duel between three or more of these.  So I want to lean towards an off the pace runner.  EXILE IN GUYVILLE seems to be the one with the best chance to slip by late and take the top prize.  Of the early speed horses, THE TIME PROPHET has shown that she can handle some early challenges and still win.  I will take EXILE IN GUYVILLE to win off the pace and THE TIME PROPHET to run a solid race and make it interesting.