Look of Eagles – GR Simsters Preakness
The GR Simsters Preakness figures to be a wide-open affair on Saturday. The top 3 finishers in the GR Simsters Derby are all absent, with winner A Vow to be a Slew in training, second place runner Spitfire MK I running in the SIM Preakness and Dan’s so called Magical Cat doing, well, whatever it is his he is doing, perhaps watching Criss Angel Mindfreak for motivation.
One could label this race the Prince Charles Stakes. Why? Well, six of the seven horses in it are impeccably bred but have yet to reach the throne. Some of them probably never will though the one that does is going to pocket $300K and make his owner very happy. If nothing else, we should have an outstanding post parade because all these horses have purple blood and shiny coats. Time to sort out who is a show pony and who is going to call himself a GR Simsters Preakness Champion.
The GR Simsters Preakness has been run since 2004. The results have been as follows:
2004
1st – Boogie Nights (Street Cry) 101 SF
2nd – Kamikaze (Deputy Minister) 97 SF
3rd – Black Scorpion (Scorpion) 90 SF
2005
1st – Guns of August (Deputy Commander) 101 SF
2nd – Seeking Perfection (Galileo) 98 SF
3rd – Eglador (Rock of Gibraltar) 93 SF
2006
1st – Ehnarmonic Diesis (Diesis) 98 SF
2nd – Irisheyesarecrying (Point Given) 97 SF
3rd – Lion of Tsavo (Lion Heart) 87 SF
In Post 1 this year we have the wickedly named Grimlock (Gone West x Seattle Slew x Alydar) from Cobra Kai stables at 3/1. A scratch bred, Grimlock broke his maiden at first asking but then proceeded to lose his next 6 races. He looks to have finally matured and has won his last two at 9 and 10 furlongs. His 96 SF is tops in the field and he comes off a dominating allowance win of almost 4 lengths. Class will be his biggest question. He fairly poorly in his only stakes race, a Grade 2 event as a 2yo. Grimlock will set the pace and attempt to wire the field.
Tracy sends 10/1 Fearsome (Fusaichi Pegasus x Deputy Minister x Mr. Prospector) out of the 2nd Post. This is another scratch bred which means there were pretty heavily priced Fasig-Tipton purchases in these two spots. Despite his fear-inspiring name Fearsome has only won one race in his career thus far. He has run well in stakes company taking 2 thirds and a second. This is his second race off an injury so he could be sitting on a big performance. Will need to improve about 8 points SF wise to win this but its possible. Fearsome will hang back attempting to close.
At 5/1 Dan and his confusing Lannister/Taragaryen Stable allegiances send out Given Glory (Point Given x Sadler’s Wells x Buckpasser). Given Glory is a, well yes you guessed it, a scratch bred. This son of Point Given has won 4 of 8 career races, including 3 in a row at one point with a stakes win at a mile as a 2yo. He has tried the turf the last two times out, including an attempt last time out to get English Derby Distance. Cutting back to 9.5 on the dirt should give him extra fortitude in the stretch. Given Glory will need to run a career high SF to win this race and will need to out duel Grimlock on the lead. These two should ensure an honest pace upfront.
Residency President Geoff sends out Farseer (Sadler’s Wells x Silver Buck x Poker) at 6/1 that appears to be ambitiously placed. However Geoff has been known to make entries like these and more than one have paid out handsomely so its not like we have Pletcher bringing in Circular Quay on an 8 week layoff here. Farseer is the first runner from H ranked mare Lothlorian. This son of Sadler’s Wells is another that will contest the lead. He comes off an 8th place finish in a 7.5f stakes race in which he faded badly. It looks like distance might be a problem here though that seems ridiculous when you consider the pedigree. With only 6 career starts there is room to improve.
Gogo Gizmo (Midas Eyes x Smarten x King’s Bishop) at 7/2 appears to be the square peg in this race. He’s not a Fasig-Tipton or Keenland Select graduate, he’s had to work for his feed and he’s done an excellent job doing that. He’s earned almost $150K for Mike and by far the most experienced horse in this field with 15 starts. Gogo Gizmo reminds me a bit of Teuflesberg. This is seriously tested stakes horse that has won a G3 at 8.5 furlongs, though some may quibble that this was on an off track. He has also ran 3rd in a G2 and has run in the Illinois (6th) and Louisiana Derbies (8th) He is coming off an 11th place finish in the GR Simsters Derby and that may have been a combination of distance and fatigue. Gogo Gizmo is a tough horse that shows (more) speed on his best day. He is going to make it tough for the front-runners and will push them. I like his experience and battle readiness though his many starts are a concern, especially wheeling back on 2 weeks rest.
The Lennbrenner Empire is taking a huge shot in the dark with 8/1 Takeover (Giant’s Causeway x Pine Bluff x Damascus). Is this the “I am Keith Hernandez” moment for Lenny? He sends out a colt that has never even raced on the main track before. Takeover won his first two starts but has stagnated since, running well up the track in the same English Derby Prep that Given Glory ran in. Grossly Waver; Takeover’s dam was a dirt router so maybe Lenny knows something we don’t. Or maybe he just realized that himself. The Lennbrenner’s are always dangerous and if you’re going to take a shot why not for a $500K purse, but if his gamble doesn’t pay off Takeover could be in for a long race.
Finally the 5/2 favorite Verlander (Aptitude x Rahy x Nijinsky) represents Winterfell Racing. He is out of the mare Two on the Dice. After winning 3 of his first 4 career races, including a stakes race at 8.5 furlongs Verlander is winless in 3 starts this year. He started out the year well with a 2nd place finish at 9.5 furlongs with a 93 SF but in a bid to get on the Derby trail came up short in his next two attempts. He did nothing running 8th in the GI I am Not a Crook Classic and then ran a plodding 5th (think Sedgefield) in the Arkansas Derby. His SFs have been consistent and should benefit from a 5-week rest leading up to this race and the drop from graded company. He has a mid pack running style that should set him up nicely with all the speed in this race. Definitely will be a factor at this distance and should be running late. He has a lot to live up to as Winterfell Racing has had a top 3 finish in every year this race has been run with Guns of August winning the race in 2005.
The first four furlongs of this race are going to be an exciting tactical battle, almost like Napoleonic armies sending out skirmishers, assembling the grand battery and probing the flanks with light cavalry brigades. Every horse in the field except Verlander and Fearsome look to contend for the lead around the first turn, which should lead to a scintillating pace. Can Grimlock show the class needed to win this speed duel? Can Takeover turn in a monster effort and where will he run on his first effort on the dirt? Could the long shot Fearsome hit the wire first as the race falls to pieces around him? Will jockey L. Jenkins know where to position Verlander in the face of so much speed? Lots of questions to be answered which should make for an exciting race.