Bluegrass Derby Round Table: Sound Bytes for the Stars

Squirrel: Stravinsky colt will take advantage of the rail to get his preferred lead. Spida appears to hit a wall at anything longer than a mile, hasn’t gone longer than 8.5, is winless since September, and hit high SP in Breeders Bowl loss. Can’t see him staying 10.

Given: This speedball hasn’t won a race since last November, and that isn’t likely to change this weekend

Slipknot: Career-best speed was at this track, but has had a relatively pedestrian year in 07. Should either set or press the pace, but beware an early war with Henianlauch.

Mtk76: Two year old beast has yet to find his three year old stride and has regressed since then. Running style will make him primarily a pace factor.

Squirrel: Earned a spot here via an excellent Texas Derby win. Street Cry colt shows every indication of liking 10 panels, but best SPs earned around a mile. Two weeks rest probably not enough.

Given: Derby will be his fourth race in eight weeks, and he looks like a miler anyway

Slipknot: Fast horse in top form, but has a high dosage and CD (4.33/1.0), and racing back after just 14 days. Potential, but a lot of questions too.

Mtk76: 8 wins in15 starts son of Street Cry is a warrior. Primed for a big race after solid win in the G2 Texas Derby.

Squirrel: Mineshaft colt posted highest SP among all 3yos last time out. Bounce quite possible, but best SPs all at longer distances, so maybe not. Mud played a supporting role in that 106; fast track for Derby raises questions for ‘Jo.

Given: Trainer was praying for rain to no avail after his monstrous slop win in Cali, still has some hope as he will relish the distance

Slipknot: LTO in CA blew away G1 competition, but it was in the slop. Is he a horse on the rise, a one-race wonder, or only a star when it rains?

Mtk76: Made a 13 point speed figure jump in his California Derby coming out party. Must move up in an off track scenario.

Squirrel: Gone West colt has been getting real good real fast. G1 winner in his first try at that level, looks to improve off that here. Solid 101 SP earned in Corkscrew leaves room for improvement. Keep an eye on this one.

Given: Rapidly improving colt ran lights out in Corkscrew to cement Derby spot, in with a big shot at the roses

Slipknot: Coming off career race LTO at 9f, versatile stalker/closer, good DI/CD, and 14/1 odds. A nice value, solid pick.

Mtk76: Took a major step forward in last out in the Corkscrew Stakes. This win over the KY track is intriguing. Will need to run career best to factor.

Squirrel: Awesome Again colt scored by 2+ in Florida Derby last time out. Running good speeds, clearly hasn’t hit the distance wall. AF has beaten several in this field, including Degoldenstorm, Mr.Eko, Achaemenes, Insky Winsky Spida, and Taxi Driver.   Deep closer reminds me of last year’s champ Virtuoso.   He’ll be tough to beat.

Given: Well rested colt is coming off an absolute jog in Florida and is the deserving favorite, the one to beat

Slipknot: The favorite, with good reason. Big move late, tends to close with one big run. Has a speedish DI/CD (3.00/.78) and only question is distance. If this guy handles the extra furlong, send in the roses.

Mtk76: 8 races as a two year old including the G1 Movieland Futurity give this well seasoned son of Awesome Again the foundation he needs for the Bluegrass Derby. Won last prep race before the Derby (FL Derby) impressively by 2 ¾ lengths. Late running style may find traffic troubles in this massive field. Looms large

Squirrel: My prize 3yo probably doesn’t have much of a chance unless the rest of the field falls apart, but at least the Ghostzapper colt likes to place in big graded stakes. And can he really run any worse than he did in Dubai last time out?

Given: Beautifully-bred colt looks to have lost his mojo somewhere in the desert, needs massive improvement to rate a shot

Slipknot: No graded wins, no triple digit speed figs. Should handle the distance, but will need race of a lifetime and then some to cash a check here.

Mtk76: Stakes winner has been has been consistent over two and three year old seasons. Has not kept up with the best in his class but have a hunch he will be a fine miler.

Squirrel: Fell just under 2 short in he Sand Castle after a brilliant closing run. Cat Thief colt has the parentage and running style, plus SPs increasing with distance, to make me think he’ll enjoy 10.

Given: 6 (4 2 0) in sprints and 4 (0 1 1) in routes tells me that he’s a very very good sprinter

Slipknot: Ran a career best 98 LTO at 9f. Bodes well for a slice if he’s just rounding into form. A nice chance for a piece at boxcar prices.

Mtk76: Another quality son of Cat Thief has the former Classic Winner well represented. Loves to run late like a lot of the other major talent.

Squirrel: Unusual training regimen demanded a forced bounce three back, but he’s back on track. Earned his way to the big dance with a stellar Sand Castle Derby, running just two-fifths slower than the stake record. Trainer says New Yorker goal, will 10f be long enough for this Birdstone colt who loves to close from nowhere? This will be his seventh start of the year – hard campaign could catch up.

Given: Sand Castle toppler is well rested and should be ready to rock, although coming from family of sprinters and milers makes 10f a question

Slipknot: Built for distances like his daddy, he seems ready to bust out the bigggest race of his life, in which case he is gonna be a huge value at 13/1.

Mtk76: Took on aggressive races early in his career which explains why he failed to break his maiden until 2007. Flourished since then winning 4 of 6 including the Sand Castle Derby. Long ship from Dubai causes concerns of a bounce.

Squirrel: Nonwinner since November, but placed 3 out of 4 tries. Closed really well at 9 LTO, but tired going 9.5 two back. Sky Mesa colt prepped very nicely in the Sand Castle, has 2 solid races at 9, gotta like him.

Given: Immensely talented and gritty colt looks like 8.5f might be his max as both his race record and pedigree indicate

Slipknot: Bounced big two races back at 9.5f. If that was just because of the great effort just prior, he’s got a shot. But if it was an indication of how he handles anything over 9f, could be a problem.

Mtk76: Long trip home for Dubai after third place showing there. Hunch he may fatten trifectas if he fires.

Squirrel: Made great use of the lock prep system by earning a Derby entry with a 99SP score in the Arkansas Juvenile. Vindication colt is undefeated, fast, and handled by a legendary sim trainer. What a great story it’d make if he went to the Middle Jewel 6 for 6.

Given: Undefeated sensation has yet to break the 100 SF barrier, but he’s been winning easy, has a stamina-laden pedigree, and will get a garden spot behind the leaders

Slipknot: Unbeaten in 5 lifetime starts, his speeds are good but not eyepopping yet. He’ll need to take the next step in improving to win here, but he’s definitely got a shot at it.

Mtk76: Lightly raced son of Vindication is the greenest in this field. Running style will have him in the early mix and will keep Gahdamjo and other early speed honest.

Squirrel: Essence of Dubai colt seems to throw a clunker every other race or so, and this is the clunk-week. Making seventh start of year after just equaling his own lifetime high, and coming in off two weeks rest. Made it in here on despite running fourth in his do-or-die Texas Derby.

Given: No wins in last seven races doesn’t bode well for his chances, but he could pick up some of the pieces late to fill out the exotics

Slipknot: No wins in Graded races, and his one race at 9f was a disaster. Can run close to these on his best, but will have to prove he is willing.

Squirrel: Not quite a legend yet, with just 2 wins to his record. Fusaichi Pegasus colt ran a great stalking race at 9.5 two back, but in six tries has yet to run better than second in graded. Distance should be no problem, and he’s got some solid SPs to improve on.

Given: Steadily improving colt ran lights out two back at 9.5f and should get a great trip in the second group of horses, a definite shot at Derby glory

Slipknot: Hugely impressive in his last 2, but lost a bit of ground to the favorite LTO. The added distance should not be a problem, but the 21 days rest may be. A live player near the pace.

Mtk76: So of real life Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus has running style to avoid traffic problems. Appears to be rounding into form at the right time and should run a career best.

Squirrel: The king makes his third start in 4 weeks, and tends to run poorly every other. This is that other. Really nice Mass Media colt should continue making waves at the upper level, but won’t make more than a minor splash here.

Given: Fifteen races already for this guy who looks like he might have peaked in January, last two races were not encouraging

Slipknot: Solid DI/CD numbers and the ability to get the distance are the good news. Bad news is last 2 Graded efforts he beat a total of one horse. Can disappear in big races.

Mtk76: Has shown running style versatility that will aid Derby quest.

Squirrel: Ouch, that Wooden Indian finish must have hurt. Hennessy colt with a taste for the lead can only improve off that start. Can he win at 10? Probably not. Hasn’t won this year, and never over 8.5, but he’ll sure push some fast fractions.

Given: The speed of the speed but has been beaten a combined 22 lengths at 9f, he’ll likely be an afterthought by the quarter-pole

Slipknot: Will press the early pace, and has the ability to run a monster race (104 SP 2 races back). Will be a force early, but this field guarantees an awfully tough race to wire.

Mtk76: Regressed in the Wooden Indian after running an impressive 2nd to DEGOLDENSTORM in the Fountain Of Youth. Ability at classic distances is a question mark.

Squirrel: Eclipse winner tries to follow in Buda With The Slew’s hoofsteps with a BB Juvie-Derby double. Dehere colt got his bounce last time out. With that out of the way, he’s free to push the lead and go for the W. But can he handle the distance? Big question.

Given: Amazing juvenile champion left his race in the paddock in Florida, and with that loss comes many distance questions, I like others more

Slipknot: Was disappointment LTO the product of a bounce, or a reaction to added distance? If a bounce, he can run a monster race (highest career fast-track SF in race). Distance remains the biggest key with this one.

Mtk76: Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Champ is talented and a proven winner over the KY course. Secretariat and Northern Dancer crosses make him a specimen to behold. Regression last race out is a cause for concern.

Squirrel: Cat Thief colt eked out a win in the Wooden Indian over Schoolofhardnocks, posting his best SP to date. Likes to close from the back of the pack, but with at least two others dropping way back too, he may not get to be where he wants. 10 should suit the Rock Hard Ten colt to a T.

Given: Patience paid off for trainer who brought this colt slowly through ranks and won Wood Memorial in first G1 try, will be fresh and ready to make a big, and possibly victorious, splash

Slipknot: 8 of 9 lifetime ITM, without breaking triple figs yet, this guy is peaking at a perfect time. 3 straight improving speed figs, a win at 9f LTO, and 15/1 odds. One more improvement makes this guy a huge value.

Mtk76: Son of Cat Thief is lightly raced this year but got up in the Wooden Indian to punch his Derby ticket. 4X5 Secretariat cross holds out hope that those winning romps can be repeated.

Squirrel: Reeled off 4 straight to open the year, but stumbled LTO. Ignore that, and look for this With Approval colt to be in the mix at the wire. High SP, and huge 3+ length win, earned at 9.5f. Great shot.

Given: Hard raced colt finally got a nice rest headed into Derby, toss his last race and he’s a top contender who will adore the distance

Slipknot: Should have no problem getting the distance, and is capable of triple digit speed, but LTO was an unhurried flop as the favorite. Was it a bounce, or a form dip?

Mtk76: Must be working for his oats as he competed in an amazing 16 races many of them turf. Found his niche on dirt but has too much to do in this one.

Squirrel: Rock Hard Ten colt squeaked out an entry when higher-ranked horses bowed out. He ran a brilliant second in the Wooden Indian, nearly mowing down Global Affair after closing from way back. Appears to be peaking at the right time. Bound to get win #3 soon.

Given: Lightly raced bomber ran huge in the Wood to squeak into the field, he’s obviously feeling his oats and should be storming down the lane when many others have spit the bit

Slipknot: Picked a great place to outrun his lifetime best SF by 7 LTO. Stone closer has been mediocre in his 4 races before LTO. Return to form, or just a fluke in the Wooden Indian?

Mtk76: Extreme closer showed powerful closing burst in 2nd place Wooden Indian effort. Has lacked consistency of the best of this class.

Squirrel: Super tries to win their second Derby, but this guy won’t get the job done. Hasn’t won in 9+ months. Might like the distance, but Freud colt doesn’t have the speed it’ll take.

Given: From respected syndicate, but hasn’t won since July and comes from family of sprinters/milers, hard to see him finishing anywhere close to the front

Slipknot: Sparkling, on-the-verge star as 2 yr old has yet to waken for his soph season. No ITM starts this year. Will need a miracle form-reversal.

Mtk76: Disasterous Arkansas Derby effort shows this one will need a lifeline in this one.

Squirrel: Cheapo Peaks And Valleys colt among fastest of his generation, likes to close from well back. Has two very impressive prep victories including a lock win, must be respected.

Given: Not much to dislike here, very impressive colt won his 9f debut in the Chicago, he’s clearly one of the top horses in the field and must be feared

Slipknot: Never out of the money in 10 lifetime starts, 2 of last 3 in triple figs, and coming off a win at 9f. Only concern is post position, and even that’s not bad for a versatile stalker/closer like this. A very live play.

Mtk76: Pride of Canada is a feel good story for all you bargain breeders out there. Ran several impressive speed figures and a repeat of his 105 in the Silver Fence Derby could have him wearing the Roses.