Go long, young men (and women)
Hit the restrooms before post time, race fans. Grab a drink. A hamburger. Maybe a book? The eleven older horses headed postward in the $500,00- Grade I KY Horsemen Bourbon Cup have two miles to go over the firm turf course and as talented as these runners are…they’re going to be out there for a while.
The morning line favorite at 9/2 is Kool Thing(Ire), the richest son of Black Sam Bellamy. He was a stakes winner at two going just a mile, but really came into his own in the summer of fall of his three-year-old season. A twelve-furlong allowance served as his coming out party. He won by nearly six lengths and began a five-race winning streak that included a pair G1s. His last start came in the G1 Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic, where this front-runner was shuffled back early and never fired, finishing sixth. But that race came at “just” twelve furlongs; he’s undefeated at the Bourbon Cup distance, and his connections have dumped jockey B. Sipe in favor of local hero D. Givins.
Co-second choice Surgeon Tubes, by Rousillon, is on his fourth career barn and the big horse finally looks at home. He was a winner and a consistent money-earner for each of his previous barns, but Squirrel4 was the first to get back to back victories out of him, to tune of five ungraded stakes in a row. Surgeon Tubes returned to top company last out in G1 Big Turf Race last out and was caught flat-footed by the step up in class, finishing a distant sixth. He was multiply graded stakes-placed earlier in his career and should be tighter this time out.
Just like that, I’ve got a sentimental favorite: two starts back, Band of Budas was second in the listed Cryptodoor Stakes, named in honor of the one of the best claims I ever made. But Band of Budas rates a chance on more than just nostalgia: he’s been a classy horse all along. A G3 winner at two, he’s been running marathons since this time in ’04 but really came into his own in the fall of his four-year-old season, when he romped in the G2 Longchamp Marathon over a good-rated course. He’s won seven graded stakes in all, including that Longchamp race twice. He’s been second to Mine D’Inverne in his last two, but that one won’t be in the gate on Saturday.
The don’t come much fancier than blue-blooded Dragnipur, a Sadler’s Wells son out of a Blushing Groom mare. The four-year-old has won six of his nineteen starts, including his sprint debut, and hit the board thirteen times. A listed stakes winner three times over, he was outrun early and finished seventh in his only graded start. His connections win at a 25% clip, rider A. Darling is no slouch, and this colt’s top speed rating–a 107–is mighty hard to knock. I have a hunch that the two-mile distance may be a little too far for his taste…but I’ve been wrong before.
Polarizing trainer Lordpye bucks trends here as well, entering the first of two mares in the field. Seven-year-old Rebel Yell N, by War Chant, is no stranger to racing the best of the boys: her record includes the G1 Canada Turf, whre she was second only to the monster Rain God. She’s been beating up on listed stakes company recently and hasn’t hit the board in a graded race since May of 2006, but she loves this distance and fits right in.
And then it’s all the way down to the inside rail for Brahms son Seattle Rap Ted, a four-year-old stakes winner who began his career on the dirt without much in the way of success. Switched to the turf, he was an instant winner, and now boasts a dozen top-three finishes in his twenty-one race career. The highlight of that career thus far was an even third in the G2 Flying Carpet Handicap. He’s never been past thirteen furlongs and hasn’t shown the finishing kick that would make me enthusiastic about the stretch. But (altogether now): been wrong before!
With just nine races under his belt, Blazing Lights is the baby of the field. A four-year-old son of Sadler’s Wells, out of a Nashua mare, he’s won four of those starts, finished on the board seven times (the other two on the main track), and never run out of the money. He’s gone long only twice, finishing second in allowance company at eleven furlongs and then emerging a handy winner in the list R.I.P. Saddie(Aus) Stakes. He didn’t beat a whole lot there–it was a five horse field made up of horses struggling at the allowance level and one graded stakes-placed runner who was going farther than he liked–and the time was consequently slow. But ‘Lights got the distance handily and has run quite a bit faster than that; the 9/1 odds are fair, and appealing given the potential talent.
Speaking of closing kick… Weighing in at 10/1 is Lucky’s Dubai, a four-year-old grey colt by Dubai Destination. He’s been brought carefully along by his connections and seems to at last be coming into his own: two of his three wins came in his last three starts, after a long spell of on-the-board allowance finishes. He’s now a stakes winner at fourteen furlongs and though he had to settle for second last time out, he made up a lot of ground while chasing a free-wheeling, front-running, G3 winner in Otto Capital. He’s been flirting with the three-digit speed rating barrier for a while now and doesn’t seem likely to be daunted by another two furlongs.
Martson’s Spoon, by Last Lion, has won ten of his thirty-one starts and hits the board two-thirds of the time. His first start came in a $5,000 claiming race. Totje cherry-picked him out, bumped him up in class, and was rewarded with a surface-versatile stakes winner who finished third behind Band of Budas in the G1 The Gold Glass. He’ll contribute to the early pace and has won at this distance before, but speed ratings look a little slow and he may be off-form.
The other distaff representative is Mockingbird, a five-year-old millionaire daughter of Atticus, and the best foal of a Kingmambo mare. Like Rebel Yell N, she’s taken on the boys before and beat them, too. A major player in the sophomore turf filly marathons, she was also second versus males in the G3 St. Leggs Marathon. Her only wins in the last year came in listed stakes company and like ‘Spoon, she may not be fast enough to threaten here, but get the distance? Of that, I have no doubt.
And rounding out the field is Casey’s Quest, veteren of forty-six races, with ten victories to his name. He was a G3 winner at three and is multiply graded stakes-place, with victories in listed company as well. But his front-running ways have turned against him as of late, and he is unfortunately a bit of a no-hoper when shuffled back. His best numbers do match up, but he’s another that may be in need of a confidence boost.