Equinics: Samantha’s Wish (Grade I) Is Wide Open!

My most recent ex-girlfriend’s name is Samantha, and I think her greatest wish was that I stop betting the ponies. Well, she’s an ex for a reason, folks. Now, to the ponies!

Multiple 3 y/o fillies are stepping up in class for this Equinics event. 19 horses will be squaring off in the $750,000 Grade I Samantha’s Wish, which will be run at 6 furlongs in the dirt. If Samantha’s wish was to have a wide-open stakes race run in her name, she’ll have that come true tomorrow as two horses go off as 7/1 favorites.

#1 SILENT ASTRAL (29/1)

Silent Astral sets her sights on her fourth win in her sixth start, though she may need telescope as the youngmc03 trainee’s last two wins came in $29,200 Allowances. Despite a promising rise in her speed ratings, Silent Astral’s competition in the Samantha’s Wish may be a tad out of her solar system. Look for this horse to do big things in the future though.

#2 WIRE KNOWS BEST (13/1)

Wire Knows Best is getting 13/1 morning line odds, and if she can put together a race similar to her Finger Expand Dirt Filly Dash at Oaklawn in June then this horse may be worth consideration for your exotics.

#3 LOVE MY MAMA (9/1)

2016 has been “The Year of Tapit,” and Love My Mama is in prime position to add to her sire’s resume. One of the few horses in today’s field that has Grade I experience, do not be fooled by Love My Mama’s 5^th place finish in The Priceless at Belmont in July; she will most certainly be able to close quicker against the field here in Vermont.

#4 DARK INSOUCIANT (15/1)

Dark Insouciant, a Japanese-bred out of War Emblem looks to maintain some recent great speed ratings in the Grade III Dynamita Sprint and Grade III The Saint Paula. 6 furlongs seems to be her distance, and she can certainly compete in a wide open field if she’s able to break clean and sit just off the pace.

#5 YES WE KENJON (7/1)

Yes We Kenjon starts out as the morning line favorite having never run at a speed rating under 89. Clearly a powerful horse, but the question remains how this daughter of Bernardini will react to 6 furlongs, a distance it has never run at before.

#6 MOON SPIRITS (15/1)

If you like to bet hot horses, keep an eye on Moon Spirits as she enters the Samantha’s Wish off a three-race heater and boasting rising speed ratings in each race. Further, Moon Spirits seems to relish the competition of a stakes race, as her highest numbers come when entered with higher class fillies.

#7 QUE LOQUITA (23/1)

There’s nothing loca about this “crazy little girl,” Que Loquita has steadily improved since her debut in April 2015. Que Loquita has hit the board 75% out, and she looks to improve on a 27% increase in her speed figures since the end of 2015. The only thing “crazy” about this performance will be Que Loquita’s ability to fight through a massive field to sit just off the pace setters.

#8 I AM SO READY (17/1)

I Am So Ready missed the tote board for the first time in 12 race career when she finished just over five lengths off the winner in the Grade I The Priceless. After that gutsy performance at Belmont, jbcri36 must be thinking his More Than Ready filly is “more than ready” to take home the gold in this Equinics sprint.

#9 ARC WELD (7/1)

With one of the most impressive pedigrees in a talented field, Arc Weld drops to 6 furlongs for the first time since June 2015. From that last 6 furlong race at Churchill to now, Arc Weld has gone on to hit the board in three graded stakes, and ran a blistering 109 sprinting in the Barbs Forbidden Dirt Filly Dash after shipping to the Czech Republic. The biggest question mark is how this Arch filly responds to returning from India and having quarantine lifted less than a month ago.

#10 SALUTE THE JUDGE (31/1)

Salute The Judge looks to quiet the naysayers as she enters the Samantha’s Wish at 31/1. This Canadian-bred’s best bet is to attempt a wire-to-wire run.

#11 ALIEN SEA (20/1)

Alien Sea is peaking at just the right time after placing in Argentina’s Ima Crafty Bran Dirt Filly Memorial Stakes. The absence of a scorching pace setter will place the field at a level that allows Alien Sea to sit off the leaders and make a move in the stretch. If this horse can respond being forced four to six wide, she’ll have more success in the future than just the Samantha’s Wish.

#12 KEPLER TVEHUGG (10/1)

Kepler Tvehugg has been bouncing between routes and longer sprints, but drops down to 6 furlongs to defend the honor and legacy of her residency. Kepler Tvehugg’s key to success will not only be getting a clean break and getting out in front of a huge field, but maintaining that pace; in her last Grade I stakes, Kepler Tvehugg started from the 10 post on a 14-horse field, broke clean to sit a length off the leader, but ended up fading to six lengths back. Perhaps the drop in distance will be to her benefit.

#13 SACHET (15/1)

Sachet starts a 15/1, but look for this Point of Entry filly to take a lot of money on race day. Since she finished ¾ back in The Priceless (Grade I) at Belmont, Sachet has been training in Saratoga, just over the VT/NY border where the dirt course runs eerily similar.

#14 YOUR TEARY EYES (14/1)

One of the lightest raced horses in the field, Your Teary Eyes has quickly turned into a sharp filly who hasn’t missed the board in any of her seven starts. As she makes the jump from a NW3x with a $19,500 purse, the verdict is out on whether or not a Grade I win is a glimmer or tear her in connections’ eyes.

#15 GUILLEM (14/1)

Guillem was held up in quarantine after returning from Spain on July 6, 2016. The daughter of Ghostzapper and Slayed Song was in Europe where she ran past her foes in the Priority Princess Stakes (Grade III) with a lightning fast 106 speed rating. Many handicappers think her connections should have brought her back stateside in anticipation of Equinics, but they chose to keep her in order to run her in a HOT race. If this filly isn’t lagged from her trip, expect her to push the pace and make her competition work for a win in the stretch.

#16 SIMAR (9/1)

While not the morning line favorite, look for Simar to go off as the betting favorite in the Samantha’s Wish. In her last two starts—The Priceless (Grade I) and Bob Barker Stakes (Grade II)—Simar has finished no more than a half a length off the lead…COMBINED! This brightvalr trainee is poised to put up another triple-digit speed figure for this Equinics race, and I expect many more big things out of this filly whose dam and sire are $1,000,000 earners.

#17 GETAWAY POINT (22/1)

This lightly raced filly out of Point of Entry should get more love than her morning line odds of 22/1, especially after she drops down to a favorable distance from the dam’s side, though many handicappers suggest this horse is one to watch for future turf sprints down the line.

#18 LOVER OF STORMS (60/1)

This Heart of the Storm 3 y/o is headed right into the “heart of the storm” as she faces her first stakes-level competition in the Equinics. Look for dontbetonme to let the other fillies jockey for the pace and let Lover of Storms sit back and see if she can find a route at the top of the stretch.

#19 ZERO STORM (13/1)

Worldbeatr enters Zero Storm in near top form after taking the Grade II Bob Barker Stakes by a neck and finishing 3 ½ lengths back from the winner of The Priceless (Grade I). Another horse that is going to demand a lot of betting money on race day, Zero Storm is not one to be left out of your bets despite coming from the 19 post.

 

Win – #16 Simar

Trifecta Box – #16 Simar; #19 Zero Storm; #3 Love My Mama

Superfecta Box – #16 Simar; #19 Zero Storm; #3 Love My Mama; #15 Sachet