Equinics: RESIDENCIES 6f Turf Age 4+
The Residencies race is a tribute race to those residencies that were part of the game and are no longer part of the game. As a side note, Comedy Central will soon be part of this group and there is a race sponsored (ironically covered by myself and ironically, I didn’t know the background of this race until I started to write this article). A background history of how the residencies came into existence as well as those residencies that are now past history can be viewed at http://www.pasturesofgreen.com/equinics/2016/4m6t.html
Now onto the Equinics race coverage. The Residencies race is a turf race being held in Brazil. A beautiful day which will undoubtedly pack and may even overflow the race track. Don’t worry, Brazil has thought of everything as has set up extra beer trucks in the parking lot to handle the large crowd, along with porta-pottys. This race has a purse of $1 million and a group of 19 will battle it out at a distance of 6 furlongs for all horses age four or older.
1 WHIZZING BY 14/1
One of the topped ranked runners in the game, currently 14th, will be representing the Vermont residency. He’s won twice this year in five starts with both coming in listed stake races. He comes into the races with a near miss fourth in the G1 King’s Fall, finishing 4th by a stride and a third in his last start in the G3 Minstrel Sprint. 112 speed in the last is his best of the season and may be getting into top form at just the right time.
2 GALEGANTIN 10/1
This 34TH ranked six time winner in eight turf starts will represent the Elite residency in this event. Switching to turf in mid-2016, he quickly won four straight, including a listed stakes. Over his last four starts, he picked up a pair of wins and just held on to win in the G2 All Ages by the smallest of margins. The 116 speed in that race speaks volumes of this son of Sea the Stars ability and if he doesn’t get the G1 win here, certainly will see one in the near future.
3 YOU BETTER LISTEN 7/1
Blazzing Saddles representative is high up in the ranks and currently sits in the 4th spot. Very hot in 2016 with three wins and a pair of seconds in five starts. The year started with a win in a listed stake followed by a G3 victory in the Thank You Stakes. In June, a G1 win came in the Strand Broke and the pair of seconds both came in G1 events. All five starts have speeds of 110 and up which has positioned this runner as the second choice with the oddmakers.
4 FLABBY NEKO 6/1
The East-West Connection not only has the 9th ranked sprinter in the game but also the favorite in this Equinic field. A five year old who has been anything but ‘flabby’ this year with three wins and three seconds in six outings. This front runner took all three wins in consecutive style kicking off with a pair of listed stake victories and wrapping the streak up with a G2 Rising Sun Spring Cup prize. The last two outings were both seconds in the graded class and all races this year have been in the high speed range off 110 and up. Formidable in this group.
5 GLENN 23/1
Taking to the track and representing the Queensland residency is a six time grass winner. Last year, this guy was glowing with six races with speeds over 100. Not so much this year with only two out of five outings breaking this barrier. He took an allowance win in January with a 108 speed but hasn’t come close to that since. He’s been racing at distances of a mile and up and will drop down to the sprint for this event and he’s had some prior success with three wins in five starts at the lighter distance. Right now, a longshot but the change in distance could light a fire.
6 KING OF THE OASIS 15/1
Third in the rankings is the DelPenn delegate who has had the misfortune of running his last eleven races in Grade 1 events. Ok, that is not a misfortune but a great thing if you have a horse that can do this. The ‘King’ revisited two G1 events he appeared in last year where he won the Sydney Sprint and was second in the Cup of July. This year, luck did not follow him as he was beat out late in the Sydney Sprint and finished third and in the Cup of July finished a mid-field 7th. Still, he’s chalked up two speeds over 110 four starts this season showing the five year old still has a kick to him.
7 SOY SAUCE 18/1
Comedy Central sends a flavorable runner to the race who earlier this year proofed some foundness to the poly surface where he won three consecutive allowance races. He leaped off this surface and expanded the win streak to four straight where he returned to the turf and fired off a 111 speed. Only place from here was up so he ventured into a G3 sprint and ran a respectable fourth in a group of ten. Faces some of the top ranked horses in the game will be a challenge and it will be a hard ride to beat the foes.
8 WORLD STAGE 10/1
What better place than to be than on the World’s Stage….well, Empire State Racing thinks they will be on the medal stage by going with this entrant. He has spent they year running listed stakes at distances from 7.5 f to 8.5 f and has four appearances for the year. He’s got a win, place, show and a fourth in these outings, with the appearance of a poker straight. Consistency with 109 speeds in three starts but a breakout with a 116 (finished 2nd in that race). He’ll be scaling back in distance and this late runner will need to adjust things a bit with timing to make it to the stage he desires.
9 DAPTO VW 15/1
The horse climbing up the rankings, now 77th, will be the representative for the Midas residents. He engaged in his first career grade level race in his last start and controlled things from the moment his foot left the gate right to the wire and banging off a 109 speed. He won a listed stake event prior to this win and hopes to keep the streak alive while stepping up to the highest level. He likes the lead, he’s never finished less than third if he was first or second at the midway point and he could get something here if he can beat out others to get to the top early on.
10 HIGH HOLIDAY 40/1
The NWRC residency is hopeful that all watching at the track will need to put on sunglasses. That may be necessary if the longshot of the race lights up the board. This four year old is no stranger to finishing in the top two spots, achieving that in ten of seventeen turf races. Since October, he’s won all four allowance races he’s been in but the struggle has been with the listed stake appearances, with five sprinkled in during the time span. He’s hit the board once at this higher level of racing and his chances aren’t looking too great as he shoots up to the G1 level.
11 DEFENSE WINS RACES 9/1
The number one ranked horse is seeking a gold and will try to bring it home to the GR Simsters residency. The five year old has won 13 of 23 grass starts and in 2016 has won two of his last three which were G1 wins in the Sydney Sprint and the Cup of July. 112 speeds were charted with each win and 6 furlongs is where he is dangerous with a 8-2-0 record on the grass in 11 outings. The Eclipse winner and Hall of Famer is one to respect.
12 KAGS 11/1
A very good year for this colt who has received the honor to represent the Ehteam residency. He’s collected three wins this season with a second in five starts. The second place finish came at 9 furlongs and a sizzling 117 speed came with it. He’s only had one sprint race this year and that was in a listed local championship in early July which he won with a respectable 109. He’s capable in sprints, hitting top two spots in half of his 12 races at the short distances. The front-end runner will need his best as there are several very good horses in the field he will need to show that he can keep up with.
13 NAVY CITY TED 30/1
After winning his last two races in the allowance level, Racing HQ residency is rolling the dice on this five year old in the Equinics. He’s had a successful career on the grass winning nine times in fifteen races and in-the-money 80% of the time. He’s not known for his speed numbers and it’s a rare occurrence that he hits 100, however, the recent wins were at 104 and 105, with the higher on an off-track. This will be his first stake appearance and there is much better talent in the field, but getting selected to run is an achievement.
14 A MOONROOF 20/1
Returning to the turf back in November was the right decision as the delegate from Megalopolis has strung six consecutive races with 100+ speeds. Added, he’s picked up three wins and a second, however, these were in allowance races. The other two races included a G2 and a listed stake race where he finished in the back third of the field. The results in stakes pretty much rules him out as a contender, however, he has not run in a sprint since last October. Maybe something will click with the shorter distance.
15 WOT WAS I THINKING 19/1
Ranked 75th overall seems to be an understatement for the All-Starts Racing selection for the featured race. He’s raced fifteen times in his career with nine wins and five seconds. Only once has he finished worse than second and that was his 2nd career start as a two year old. This guy is expected to explode from the gate but breaking away from this huge field will be a challenge. He concluded 2015 with his top speed of 109 and will need to find that again in order to have a shot at the podium.
16 FOOT FOUL 15/1
After making his first appearance in a listed stake at the conclusion of 2015, this selected Universal Racing Club entrant has spent 2016 racing only in stake events. He kicked off 2016 with a listed stake win and picked up a pair of seconds in the G2 Duke of Mork and G3 Nordic Chemical. Coming off a 110 career best speed in the Nordic may position this one favorably for a bounced improvement. Although that was at a mile, he has had a terrific record in sprints hitting the board 12 of 14 which includes 8 wins. Potential spoiler.
17 CAPED CROSS 36/1
A fourth place finish in his first grade race outing (G3 Highlander) landed this colt as the choice of the Minnesota Testbarn Residency. He notched a nice 105 speed in the event which trailed a pair of wins, one in allowance and more recently a listed stake. And these were preceded by a trio of second place finishes in allowance races. Since October, he has been producing the best results of his career. But whether or not this can expand into a great performance against some of the best ranked horses in the sim is questionable.
18 TONATIUH SHOCK 16/1
Not only do we have the #1 ranked horse in the field, the Euro residency is sending the #2 ranked horse to compete. After starting 2016 with G1 wins in both the Pekays Remembrance and New Market Handicap things turned sour. This front runner has had great difficulty with his stretch run in his last three races (all G1) where he had decent position entering the run for the wire only to sputter across the line finishing mid-field in each. Current form is definitely a concern at this time.
19 RAYO DE SOL 20/1
From October to April, this chosen Sim Hispano runner won three of four starts. Included in this was a listed stake victory with a charming 115 speed which certainly waivered in this colts favor with the residency’s selection committee. But running that high speed may have rendered ill effects as following this race (his most recent) was also in a listed stake event and as the second choice he failed miserably finishing last and seemingly to have popped a tire as all the air came out of the speed figures. Taking on a G1 field is a huge task, but if anything, bragging rights of making it into the Equinics will be something to take home.
My Picks:
By my count, there are six in this field ranked in the top 100 aged sprinters in this field, most in the top ten. A very good field and a challenge to find a winner, but here it goes:
You Better Listen has been hot this year finishing second twice to Defense Wins Races. His turn to win going on the ‘offense’.
Defense Wins Races has won two top races lately, beating top pick. Podium is within reach and I’m putting him in for the silver.
Flabby Neko is very dangerous here and is capable of breaking down the top two selections, was just beat by You Better Listen in Strand Broke, capable of revenge.
Dapto VW has been performing very well and comes off graded win in first appearance, may find way onto podium.
Great job!