Equinics 2016: The John Chapman

 

An accomplished group of horses are set to head to the starting gate in the $1,000,000 Grade 1 The John Chapman. This Equinics event will be run at 10 furlongs on the dirt, for four-year-olds and up. The field of twenty looks to be wide open, with only two horses at shorter odds than 10-1, and the morning line favorite at 7-1.

#1 THREE D FX III (11-1)

Three D FX III has earned almost $450,000 for trainer dolphinman, hitting the board in 80% of his 15 career trips to the post. He’s run just three times so far in 2016, with a place and a show in graded company to show for his efforts. Definitely a threat to finish in the money for the strong Empire State Racing Equinics team, but he hasn’t won a race since May 2015, and we will be looking elsewhere for the winner.

#2 BREWS ARE ON YOU (10-1)

Blazing Saddles is represented by the impressive Brews Are On You, a four-year-old son of Creative Cause. He’s finished in the money in 10 of 15 starts, including seven wins, and earned well over $4.1 million. Brews Are On You won the $6,000,000 Grade 1 Sand Castle Classic in Dubai in March with a blistering 119 speed figure, defeating a stacked field, including Champions Fake Honeymoon and Andrew’s Impact, as well as $5 million earner Rhaegar’s Fury. Last time out he was fourth, behind Fake Honeymoon, among others, in the Grade 1 Movieland Shiny Cup. The desimster6 trainee certainly deserves consideration.

#3 BEATIFY (19-1)

Verywide-trained Beatify has proven to be a versatile runner, and will represent Megalopolis in the Equinics this year. The four-year-old son of St. Jovite has spent most of his time in stakes company after taking five tries to break his maiden. For his career, Beatify has earned over $350,000, with four wins and 11 in the money finishes in 18 starts. He turned in a career-best effort while finishing second in the Grade 2 The Scrub in February, but results in his four starts since then have been mixed. Hard for me to make a compelling case for him to get his first graded win in this event.

#4 APP OF THE DAY (17-1)

Dubawi-trained App of the Day represents Comedy Central in The John Chapman. The son of Flower Alley has won eight of 19 starts, earning over $270,000. App of the Day has won six of his last eight races, posting triple digit speed figures in his last seven trips to the gate. That said, he’s spent most of his career racing in allowance company, and has hit the board just once in three stakes starts. Coming off of an eighth place finish in the Grade 2 Out of the City Handicap at today’s distance, it would surprise us if he’s the winner today.

#5 SHADY FRANK (12-1)

Shady Frank has finished in the money in seven consecutive starts, dating back to last November, and has earned over $270,000 to date. The chilimac trainee posted a career-best 118 speed figure last time out, placing in a Grade 3 event at today’s distance. Shady Frank, representing Racing HQ, is a son of Grade 2 winning sim dam Slew of Cash, who earned over $2 million in her 76 race career. This late bloomer is racing better than he ever has before, but we’d still look elsewhere for the winner.

#6 COMMINUTION (28-1)

The Eh Team is represented by Comminution, a four-year-old son of Mineshaft. The imcan-trainee has finished in the money in six of 12 starts, earning over $180,000. Comminution proved he can handle this distance when winning the Eh Team Canadian Classic in December, but 2016 has been a rough campaign for him so far, with nothing to show for three tries in stakes company. He will need a career-best effort to be a factor against these classy rivals.

#7 CIDER BARREL (274-1)

British and Nordic Racing Club will be represented by Cider Barrel, a six-year-old son of Opera House. The veteran campaigner has run 34 times in a long and productive career, earning over $260,000. His last five races have come in the silks of brigantes, but he has only two third place finishes for his new connections. Coming off a 73 speed figure in his last race, and never having competed in a stakes race before, I can safely say that it would be an upset for the ages if Cider Barrel were to return to the winners’ circle today.

#8 STEAMY NIGHTS (62-1)

Fitzy-trained Steamy Nights made his stakes debut last time out, finishing seventh in the Masterofyourdomain Dirt Endurance in South Korea. His connections must have seen something to justify shipping him to North America to represent Queensland in the Equinics on the dirt after he raced on the turf in each of his first 14 races. The four-year-old son of Passion For Gold has finished in the money in nine of 17 starts, earning nearly $100,000. A true longshot in this company, hoping to follow the path blazed by the likes of Upset, Jim Dandy, and Onion.

#9 RON’S PRADO (25-1)

Former claimer Ron’s Prado will be representing East-West Connection. Trainer atw6 claimed the four-year-old for $75,000 in January. Since then, the son of Paddy O’Prado has finished in the money in five consecutive races for his new connections, including a second place finish in his first attempt at a stakes race last time out. For his career, Ron’s Prado has won five of 13 starts, collecting nearly $120,000 in purses. We’re looking elsewhere for the winner, but given that Ron’s Prado ran for a $10,000 tag less than twelve months ago, his presence in the Equinics is already quite a victory.

 #10 ROGUE CHAMPION (17-1)

A last minute entry representing Delpenn, four-year-old Rogue Champion is a son of Midas Touch. The spiderman1 trainee has finished in the money in 16 of 22 trips to the post, earning almost $260,000. Negatively, after hitting the board in 16 of his first 17 races, Rogue Champion hasn’t been in the money in any of his last five starts. He’s also never raced 10 furlongs before, and we think he’s likely better suited for a somewhat shorter event.

#11 SUMMER ROCKER (13-1)

Five-year-old Summer Rocker is the winningest horse in The John Chapman, with ten victories in 27 career starts, and ranks third in earnings, with over $2.1 million in purses thus far. The razer4 trainee is representing the Elite squad in this year’s Equinics. The son of Summer Bird is one of four stakes winners from the sim dam Indy Rock, who herself was a Grade 2 winner. Although he won easily last time out in allowance company, Summer Rock hasn’t hit the board in graded company since last September, and his best days may be behind him.

#12 SHAGA LIKES AXES (14-1)

Shaga Likes Axes has won four races in a row, including the Grade 3 Peach State Classic, since being acquired by trainer phillipj2 earlier this year. For his career, the Minnesota Testbarn Residency team member has finished in the money in 14 of 18 starts, earning more than $334,000. While Shaga Likes Axes’ new connections clearly have the son of Mineshaft on the right path, the Equinics are a big step up in a class for a horse that has raced above the allowance level just once in his career.

#13 D’SIM LACKS LIFE (11-1)

D’Sim Lacks Life heads into the Equinics on a high note, having posted a 115 speed figure while losing by a head in Louisiana in the Pleasant Nijinksy Dirt Route his last time out. The four year old son of Birdstone has hit the board in 13 of 16 career starts, earning almost a quarter of a million dollars. Trainer saver acquired D’Sim Lacks Life just three races ago, and he is now representing the state of Vermont. He’s never won a stakes race, however, and we don’t think he breaks that streak in the Equinics.

#14 STREET STRIKER (14-1)

Street Striker has been well-placed by trainer urko1, finishing first or second in five straight races, dating back to last November. The chestnut son of Street Cry is the most successful child of Grade 2 winning sim dam Awe Stricken. Representing the Euro team, Street Striker has earned over $717,000 in 13 career starts, and is in good form, posting speed figures of 116 and 118 in his last two races. Not one to be ignored.

#15 OUTBACK QUANTONG (11-1)

Regally-bred Outback Quantong (Distorted Humor x Storm Cat x Deputy Minister) is a true wildcard heading into The John Chapman. The four-year-old has never finished worst than second, but this lightly raced colt had made it to the post just eight times in his career. He’s coming off an impressive 121 speed figure his last time out, when he easily won the Grade 3 The Day of Dominion at today’s distance, but that was his first race ever in graded company. I think that trainer outback7 and the Midas team have a live one on their hands.

#16 FAKE HONEYMOON (9-1)

Fake Honeymoon, representing GR Simsters, likely needs no introduction, but we will give him one anyway. The four year old son of Bernardini has won three Grade 1 events, including last year’s Breeder’s Bowl Classic, and has earned over $8.5 million for trainer lennyelite. Last time out, Fake Honeymoon won the Grade 1 Movieland Shiny Cup at today’s distance of a mile and a quarter. All that’s left for this Champion colt to accomplish on the track is earning induction into the Hall of Fame, and a fourth Grade 1 victory in the Equinics would go a long way towards achieving sim immortality.

#17 STORMCLAW (24-1)

The impeccably-bred Stormclaw (Bernardini x Storm Cat x Forty Niner) will race for Universal Racing Club. The four-year-old colt has won or placed in half of his 16 career starts, earning over $300,000 for trainer jmd510. He finished second in allowance company his last time out with a 114 speed figure, but before that finished well up the track in two consecutive starts in graded company. Can’t completely rule him out, but he won’t be supported by our hard-earned money.

#18 UN GRAN HAACK (7-1)

Sim Hispano is represented by Grade 2 winning Un Gran Haack, who has collected well over $600,000 in purses while winning eight of 15 races. Trainer erendirax has the son of Street Cry in fine form, with eight consecutive in the money finishes, dating back to May 2015. Last time out Un Gran Haack finished a hard-charging third in the Grade 1 Barry Foster, right between Street Striker and Hedge Trimming, both of whom he will face again today. We won’t be betting the morning line favorite on top, but don’t forget him in your exotics.

#19 HEDGE TRIMMING (10-1)

Roscoe9’s Hedge Trimming had been on quite a roll, winning four in a row, including a pair of graded stakes, before fading to fourth in the Grade 1 Barry Foster his last time out. The All-Stars Racing representative has hit the board in 10 of 13 starts, earning over $460,000. The son of Tapit has never raced 10 furlongs before, and only graduated to running at the stakes level this February, so there will be naysayers. Where others have questions, we see potential value in this well-trained colt. One to consider.

#20 TIZWACKY (23-1)

Five-year-old Tizwacky is one of the most experienced horses in this impressive field. The son of Tizway, trained by jdawg11, has been in the money in just nine of 23 starts, but has made his five wins really count, earning nearly a quarter of a million dollars. Unfortunately for NWRC, Tizwacky’s recent form has been off, with three straight finishes up the track after two consecutive stakes wins at 9.5 furlongs. Probably not the one.

POINTGUARD’S PICKS:

GOLD – # 16 FAKE HONEYMOON (9-1)

SILVER – #15 OUTBACK QUANTONG (11-1)

BRONZE – #2 BREWS ARE ON YOU (10-1)

BEST LONGSHOT – #14 STREET STRIKER (14-1)