Equinics 2016: The Thunder Rumble

Nineteen talented three-year old fillies are set to head to the post in the $1,000,000 Grade 1 Thunder Rumble, a 10 furlong race on the dirt. This Equinics event is named after Thunder Rumble, a million dollar winning son of Thunder Puddles. In 1992 Thunder Rumble became the first New York-bred to win the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga in 125 years, defeating fellow Grade/Group 1 winners Devil His Due, Dixie Brass, Furiously, Alydeed, and Bien Bien. Thunder Rumble won eight of 19 career races, and died in January 2015, at the age of 26, at Old Friends in Greenfield, NY, just a few miles from the site of his greatest victory.

#1 UC DAVIS RYRY (16-1)

The only California-bred in the field, UC Davis Ryry represents the Minnesota Testbarn Residency. The ryry-trained filly has hit the board in six of seven starts, and unlike most of her rivals, has already competed against both the boys and older horses. She can’t be completely ignored after posting the two best speed figures of her career in her last two races, but the move from California-bred races to the Equinics is a dramatic one.

#2 SPARKLING AFFAIR (118-1)

Sparkling Affair will be looking to break her maiden in dramatic fashion in the Equinics for the British and Nordic Racing Club. The daughter of Colonial Affair is making her first start in the US for trainer brigantes. She’s obviously a longshot against this loaded field, but she’s in the race, and you never know what will happen after the gate opens.

#3 THIRSTY GOER (10-1)

Mrxrayz32-trained Thirsty Goer, representing GR Simsters, is one of the hottest horses in the race, with four consecutive victories. Thirsty Goer earned her first graded stakes win in the Grade 3 Denny Tario Oaks her last time out, and three of the horses she defeated have already come back to win races since then. I think the step up in class and the extra distance may be a bit too much for Thirsty Goer to handle, but who am I to argue with her connections, who have guided her to 11 in the money finishes in 12 career starts.

#4 EXCELSIS D’ORO (11-1)

Blazing Saddles is well-represented by Excelsis D’oro. She’s a daughter of Excelsis Deo, a stakes winning sim mare of over $250,000, whose first two children have also become stakes winners. The mtkbps-trained filly showed she could run right from the start, posting an 84 speed figure to win her debut at Saratoga last August, and has hit the board in eight of nine starts. I think she’ll appreciate the extra distance in her first attempt at 10 furlongs, and she’s coming off the best race of her career, in which she posted a 108 speed, tied with Well Hello Dolly for the highest figure of any of these fillies in their final race before the Equinics. Ignore this one at your own peril.

#5 SIA (7-1)

My residency, Empire State Racing, is represented by Sia, a Grade 2-winning daughter of Malibu Moon, who has earned a race-best $774,000 in her career. Sia has won four of twelve starts for trainer chloedawg12, and rallied down the stretch to finish second in the Grade 1 Bluegrass Oaks earlier this year, generating the highest career speed figure (109) of any horse in this event. Sia finished in the money in three straight graded stakes before a fifth place finish her last time out. I don’t think the extra distance will be a problem for her, and she stands a good chance of hitting the board.

#6 ALL GRASS ACK (13-1)

All Grass Ack, representing Universal Racing Club, is the most experienced filly in the Thunder Rumble, with seventeen trips to the post in her career for wahoo222. She’s finished in the money in 14 of those races, so her connections clearly know what they are doing. The Equinics will mark her first attempt in graded company, however, so we’re looking elsewhere for the winner.

#7 PERFECTSHINYANDNEW (19-1)

Perfectshinyandnew has won three in a row for trainer asrstar6, including her first stakes win at today’s distance last time out. Representing All-Stars Racing, this beautiful filly is going to be very valuable in the breeding shed one day (Giant’s Causeway x Forty Niner x Nijinksy 2nd). While she’s coming off a career-best effort, I think she’ll need to take another big step forward to be a factor in this company.

#8 PUNITIVA (22-1)

Trained by lucia11, Punitiva represents Sim Hispano. This well-bred daughter of Curlin has been managed conservatively during her career, racing just eight times, with five in the money finishes, including three wins. Negatively, both of her attempts in graded company have resulted in off the board finishes, and she’s never posted a triple digit speed number. She’s moving in the right direction and seems primed for a career best effort, the question is whether that will be enough against this group.

#9 KASH KEN BUY LOVE (14-1)

Comedy Central is represented by Kash Ken Buy Love. This bluest of the blue bloods (Awesome Again x Seattle Slew x Secretariat) has won half of her ten career starts for kashbred3. She hasn’t finished in the money in three straight tries at the graded level after winning a non-graded stakes in February, so I’m going to avoid her against this crowded field of talented fillies.

#10 GABON (36-1)

Aubameyang trains Gabon, who has hit the board in seven of nine starts, earning nearly $150,000. She finished fifth in a field of six racing against the boys in restricted stakes company last time out, but has been freshened for two months following that effort at a mile and a half. It will take a big move forward for this member of the Ehteam to be a factor today, but there are no questions about her ability to handle the distance.

#11 FEAT BIRDSTONE (42-1)

Queensland’s Feat Birdstone makes her stakes debut in the Thunder Rumble. The chongtong trainee has finished in the money six times in seven trips to the post, but hasn’t won since November. It will take a career-best effort for the daughter of Birdstone to break her recent dry spell against these.

#12 WELL HELLO DOLLY (15-1)

Well Hello Dolly raced just once as a two-year-old, and is the least experienced horse in the field, with only six career starts. But she has progressed rapidly for trainer rac4 since making her debut last December, finishing in the money five times, and posting a career-best 108 speed figure last time out, tied for the best of any horse in this race in their last prep. While she hasn’t raced longer than 8.5 furlongs, she’s been flying down the stretch in every one of her starts, and I think she can handle the extra distance in this event. The public may put their money elsewhere, but I’d be careful not to ignore this member of the Elite team, particularly in my exotics.

#13 MESA SILVER (17-1)

Racing HQ is represented by Mesa Silver, who has finished in the money in each of her last four starts. The three-year-old daughter of Sky Mesa has earned over $100,000 for trainer rlogan3, with ten in the money finishes in 14 career starts. Mesa Silver posted a career-best 102 speed figure while winning at today’s distance her last time out, so she can’t be ignored, but I think class matters in an event as competitive as the Equinics, and the Thunder Rumble will represent her first try in stakes company.

#14 OUTBACK JACKAL (14-1)

Outback Jackal has won five of seven starts since making her debut in December. Trained by outback9 and representing Midas, this daughter of City Zip has rapidly progressed through her conditions. While the City Zip lineage will scare some who haven’t been paying attention the past few years about her ability to get the distance, a look at the back end of her pedigree (Broad Brush x Secretariat) and her recent performances should allay those fears. A live one with six weeks to prepare after posting a career-best 106 speed her last time out.

#15 GRAFT (9-1)

NWRC is represented by Graft, who finished a hard-charging second to Thirsty Goer in the Grade 3 Denny Tario Oaks last time out. This stakes-winning daughter of Tiznow is trained by carsoncity, and has been in the money seven times in ten trips to the post. Graft has delivered triple digit speeds in four straight races at nine furlongs, and I think she’ll appreciate the extra eighth of a mile in the Equinics. If you’re looking for value, you may not need to look much further. Definitely one to use in your exotics.

#16 LITTLE BABY BARB (12-1)

Representing Vermont, Little Baby Barb is a regally-bred filly who has been well-placed by trainer halloffame, finishing in the money in nine of 11 career races while earning nearly $280,000. The stakes winning daughter of Medaglia d’Oro hasn’t raced since May, the longest layoff of her short career. Little Baby Barb has never run longer than nine furlongs, but I think she can handle the extra distance in the Thunder Rumble. The question is whether she will show up sharp after some time off, or need a race to get back to peak form.

#17 ANTIMATTER WEAPON (7-1)

Antimatter Weapon has one of the most impressive resumes in the field, with seven wins in nine starts. Her Grade 1 winning sim mother, Antimatter, has sired six winners to date. Trained by wideonturns, Antimatter Weapon has posted triple digit speed figures in four straight races after returning to the dirt in February. Last time out she was third in the Grade 1 Sister Hen Stakes. The Megalopolis team member should get a lot of attention in the pari-mutuel pools. I’m not 100% sold on her ability to get the mile and a quarter, and will be looking away for better value, knowing crazy things can happen in a 19 horse field.

#18 LOL WIRE (9-1)

East-West Connection is represented by LOL Wire. While the filly has hit the board just five times in a dozen starts, nine of those attempts have been in stakes company, so trainer chorwon is clearly willing to take on all comers. This impeccably-bred filly (Distorted Humor x Giant’s Causeway x Sadler’s Wells) should be able to handle the distance, and with five straight triple digit speed figures, including a peak of 108, she can’t be ignored. That said, we also can’t ignore that LOL Wire hasn’t won since her second start in June 2015, and we’ll be looking elsewhere on top.

#19 MAJOR XANTICO (29-1)

Japanese-bred Major Xantico represents Euro. Trained by skogby6, Major Xantico has won four of nine starts, and is one of the only fillies in the field to have won at 10 furlongs before, with a pair of allowance victories at the distance in May and June. She hasn’t finished out of the money in six races after moving to the dirt from the turf, but she faces a tough field in her first attempt at a stakes race.

POINTGUARD’S PICKS:

GOLD – #4 EXCELSIS D’ORO (11-1)

SILVER – # 5 SIA (7-1)

BRONZE – # 15 GRAFT (9-1)

BEST LONGSHOT – #12 WELL HELLO DOLLY (15-1)