Lady sprinters take on Breeder’s Bowl Cap
The weather forecast earlier this week called for a slight chance of showers. The rain gods laughed, and made the New York track good rather than fast for this edition of the Distaff Breeder’s Bowl Cap. Great news for some entrants, the kiss of loss for others. The morning line doesn’t take into account the track condition, so this could present a nice opportunity for bettors looking for some value.
The Distaff Breeder’s Bowl Cap is a G2 for fillies and mares 3 years and older run at 7 furlongs on the main track. The stakes record was set in 2006 by nj50’s Kacymygirl with a blistering final time of 1:21.3.
Our favorite at 5-1 is pjlracing’s Explosive Storm. The 6yo Storm Cat mare is the division leader, which was helped along by hear nearly 50% strike rate (14 wins from 31 starts). She’s a perfect 2 for 2 on offtracks, with the most recent last July at this distance which she won by 3 with a 105. recent SPs range from 100 to 105, this mare is at the top of her game. She’s a very deep closer that’ll make that stretch run exciting.
Kepler Gnaget, trained by marianus, is a lovely 4yo Rahy filly who has to be among the most accomplished racehorses of her generation. In 28 starts she’s earned 11 wins and 13 more top-3s for just under $1.2 million in earnings. Most recently she ran third in the G1 Looney Bin, unfortunately making her move a bit too early only to see Hancock Pond run her down at the wire. She’s got some serious speed, and enough tactical ability that any race scenario thrown at her won’t be a problem. On offtracks, she’s 4:1-1-1. 8-1 odds.
Quiet Glory starts for kobras3. The 5yo Buddha mare is just a couple thousand short of breaking the million dollar barrier. Quiet Glory tends to go turns turns more often that sprinting, and her stats show she likes it better (33% win rate routing, 13% sprinting; ranked #5 in the dirt route division). The 102 she earned last time out in finishing second in a listed stake definitely supports her entry, however. The $100k her trainer claimed her for in 2005 is possibly one of the best claims ever made in the sim, as the mare has rewarded the purchase with a pair of graded wins and several placings. Have to like this mare in this spot but for the offtrack, where she’s 2:0-0-1. 8-1 odds.
A.P. Superwoman is one of three at 9-1. The 4yo A.P. Indy filly, trained by vampire2, has run into 3 offtracks in her last 5 starts. From those three, she’s managed a second and two fourths. Not exactly awe-inspiring in this company, but they’ve all been solid races with good SPs. I’d like this filly a bit better if she were run a bit longer. It’s actually surprising that with this pedigree she hasn’t been tested over anything longer than a mile.
Fairyking’s Supreme Team has started the year in disappointing fashion with a pair of sixth-place finishes. The 5yo Include mare definitely belongs here, however, as her third in her final start of 2005 (the G3 Blueberry) attests. She’s pretty fast, with a lifetime high 105 earned in the Blueberry, and four times a stakes winner. If she’s back in shape, the good track won’t hinder her efforts. 9-1.
The final 9-1 entry is paddy’s Treasure Coast. The 5yo Silver Deputy mare just notched a win in the G3 Shirley Temple at 7f last time out on a good track. The win margin was just a head, but you’ve got to love a mare with the guts to get it done. She does tend to be inconsistent on a good track, however, with just a win and a second in five tries. She’s fast, she’s capable on an offtrack, has a really good shot here. Better than odds suggest.
The grand dame of the field at 7 years of age is deponse’s Capacidad.The Fusaichi Pegasus mare is very lightly races for her age, with just 24 starts. Ten of those races ended in wins for the #37-ranked mare. She finished just ahead of Supreme Team in the G3 Blueberry 3 starts back, but followed that up with an eighth-place in against the boys in a DelPenn restricted stake. She’s a touch slower than the best of this field, but she’s more than capable of putting up a big race. 10-1 odds.
Mrbigb’s Battlefield Earth is at 11-1. The 4yo Diesis filly makes her graded debut after establishing a solid foundation in listed stakes. Most recently she won a listed at 6.5 with a great 106SP. She can win from the front or from behind as she pleases. If you’re looking for a very bettable longshot, this filly would be hard to say no to.
K’s Stand Tall is 12-1 on the morning line. The sledwith trainee didn’t do so hot in the G3 Manta Serria last time out when she ran sixth by three, but she’s a multiple stakes winner and is graded-placed twice. This Mineshaft filly is a perfect 1 for 1 on a good track, and that win saw her pop a 105. She’s looking good here.
2006 Trainer of the Year texasace enters his excellent filly Unbridled Mistress at 13-1. The 4yo Awesome Again filly just put up a nice 103 in winning an allowance at 7 furlongs by a length. Her credentials aren’t limited to a fast track. Indeed, she’s earned more than half of her $780k on offtracks. This is just her third sprint start, but she’s looking really good here.
Also at 13-1 is given2’s Soul Glow. The 4yo Perfect Soul filly has a mini win streak going with 2 in a row at 6.5 furlongs, and ordinarily would be a distinct threat. Her last start saw her win a listed stake by 2 1/4 lengths with an awesome lifetime high 106SP. On a fast track, I’d like her a whole lot more than I do on a good track. However, she is 1 for 1 on good surfaces, and that lone race was against just 3 other fillies. Could be she wasn’t challenged enough to show us what she’s really made of. This is her graded debut.
Silver Strav is one of two at 15-1. The 4yo Stravinsky filly most recently finished second to Hancock Pond just ahead of Kepler Gnaget in the G1 Looney Bin. Her 99 SP was pretty good, but not as good as her lifetime high 104 earned back in September. The emb2 trainee generally runs good speed figures (95+) around this distance, and she’s done pretty well at the graded level. Good spot for her.
Also at 15-1 is Puentalarra. The 6yo Sadler’s Wells filly is making her third appearance on this race. In 2005 and 2006 she ran third; trainer har has to be hoping to finally get that win this time around. Unfortunately she seems to be approaching the end of a stellar career, and never has shown much liking for an offtrack. Still, you have to have some faith in a mare that’s won 6 graded races and earned $1.7 million over the course of her 42-race career.
The field longshot at 17-1 is Sansa, reacher’s 4yo Storm Cat filly. She’s an offtrack specialist with 4 wins and a place from 5 starts, so her trainer was thrilled when the track came up good. She’s recenty started hitting 100s with regularity, and it looks like she’s finally showing what she’s got. Sansa was second in her only graded try two back in the G3 Dandelion, have to think she’s good enough to better that here.
So who will win? Hot filly Explosive Storm? Gutsy Treasure Coast? Beautifully bred K’s Stand Tall? Offtrack specialist Sansa? Twice-a-bridesmaid Peuntalarra? Someone please tell me, because I have no clue. It could legitimately be any of the entrants.