Which colt will get away with stealing this Grade 1?
As the we get closer to the Big Day, don’t be surprised to see more races like the I Am Not A Crook Classic on the card. One-shot graded races featuring a couple of the top horses on the Derby hunt and several looking to prove their credentials and earn a spot in the Derby field. This race is a Grade 1 for 3yo colts and fillies going 8.5f on the main track in Maryland.
It’s a measure of the relative evenness of the field that the cofavorites go off at 7-1. Thunder Punch, trained out of the cream stable, is twice a stakes winner, and missed out on his first graded win by just a quarter-length in his final start as a 2yo. The Thunder Gulch colt is pretty speedy, but doesn’t need the lead to run well. His high SP of 98 is among the best of his generation, but that was earned 5 starts back. He’ll need to duplicate or exceed that effort here to show he’s got the goods to run in the Derby.
Mowar’s Aly Nine is our other 7-1 cofave. The Forty Niner colt is still looking for his first stakes win, but he’s already got a third in a G3 (the Upper State Juvenile) and seems to have turned a talent corner is his last three. There’s every indication this colt wants at least 9 furlongs, which makes his entry here a bit of a puzzle given the plethora of longer stakes available this week. History says Aly Nine will settle back midpack before closing, but he’s likely to run out of room in the stretch. I’d really like to see what this colt does at 9.5 to 10 furlongs.
Lucky’s Capital took home the honors in the G2 I’m Trying at 9.5. Winorplace’s With Approval colt is now ranked #11, and is riding a hot 3-win streak. He’s been making great steady strides toward ever higher speed figures, with his best yet a great 100 earned in his last start. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him exceed that here. He’s on my short list of early Derby favorites for a couple reasons: first, he’s a winner at 9.5, showing the 10-furlong distance won’t likely be a problem. Second, he beat some really nice horses last out, so he’s definitely got the class to support him. Third and most important, his mid closing style should suit the Derby perfectly. For those reasons, I have to think this is the horse to beat in this race too. I’m not in love with the distance drop back, but he’s a winner at 8.5, and can certainly do it again.
Buffy8’s Verlander is one of three at 9-1. The Aptitude colt came up two lengths too short in the 9.5f G2 Too Short Special last time out. The drop back to 8.5 should suit this colt to a tee. You have to admire Verlander’s guts as he’s never finished worse than second in five starts. He’s likely to do the same midclosing thing as Lucky’s Capital, but so far Verlander hasn’t shown the same speeds. On the other hand, he’s gradually improving and should post at least a 95 here. One to watch out for as spring progresses.
Jonsnow enters Watergate Scandal. The Scandalous One, as the Empire Maker colt is affectionately called, is riding a three-race win streak and put up a huge one last time out. He took home a listed stake at this distance by three in front-running fashion with a tremendous 97SP. Was it a a new level he found, or is Scandal going to bounce? My guess is new level, and this should be an additional improvement off that last race. Should be interesting to see what kinds of fractions he can pull off on the front end.
Our final 9-1 entry is yet another Western Groom clone. This one, Western Romp Ted, is trained out of apacolypse. The Gone West colt ran third to Watergate Scandal last time out in a listed stake at this distance. He was good enough to hold off a later closer, but seemed not to be able to find his lead change. Normally WRT prefers to hang out either in front or as close to it as he can get, so with a good break and a clear path, he’s probably going to be hard on Scandal’s heels. Hard to say if he’s got the stamina to be around at the wire, as in two tries going two turns he’s been slowing down toward the wire each time.
Simsters7’s Last Rights is one of two 10-1 entrants. The Green Desert colt prevailed over Aly Nine last time out in a beautiful frontrunning finish. He made his first graded attempt last time out in the G3 Thousand Islands, but finished seventh as he tried closing for the first time on the good track. You have to like this guy’s speedy ways, and his ability to adjust his running style when necessary. Much better than his odds reflect.
Topsire’s Weehawken is our other 10-1 horse. The Essence of Dubai colt showed a flash of brilliance in a very game second in the G2 Cant wait for Nextweek. He posted a 97, but settled for the place after making his move a bit too soon and giving way to the currently #10-ranked King Of All Media. Last time out he saw a good track, and really didn’t appreciate it in the G3 Thousand Islands. Back on a fast track, this colt should revert back to his run-well ways. But how well? That 97 was a good 8 points higher than he’d managed previously, so while he should acquit himself well, how well remains to be seen.
Zalduendo’s Bannaby is 11-1 on the morning line. He started his young career in fine fashion with really nice runs in maiden and allowance company, but hasn’t been able to break through in stakes yet. The Unbridled’s Song colt has tried stakes twice, finishing third both time. In just his lifetime fifth start, he’s moving up to graded. It’s not the kind of foundation I really like to see here, but his 92s in both of those stakes do support an entry. The distance seems too short; I’d really like to see this colt try 9 sometime soon.
At 12-1 is PGA Eurogreens. The Eurosilver colt’s past performances reveal a bit of an oddity. In eight lifetime starts, fully half of his races have been on an offtrack. Good thing he gets a fast track this time, as Biggray’s horse tends to do much better on dry dirt. Eurogreens has shown a nice steady improvement in SPs, but in 2 stakes tries has finished second and third. His deep closing style suggests 10 furlongs is probably better for him than the 8.5 he’ll get in this race. My guess is he’ll put up a game stretch run but be caught short at the wire.
Also at 12-1 is the #3 ranked colt in this division, owned by corzacan. It’s rare to see such a good horse as Breeders Bowl Juvenile runnerup Insky Winsky Spida at such long odds. The Stravinsky colt may simply be one of those juvenile standouts who never really makes it happen at 3, but you can’t count him out. He’s got a swift turn of foot that’ll make the race to the first turn a mad dash, and can carry that speed over at least a mile, and possibly long enough to take home a piece of the purse.
Divisional #19 is 14-1 in this race. Springtime’s Smooth As Butter earned his long odds off a disappointing finish in the G2 I’m Trying last time out. Perhaps the 3 weeks rest was to blame. He must be back in shape now or the trainer wouldn’t send him back on 2 weeks rest otherwise. Smooth is a pretty inconsistent horse. He wowed the Kentucky crowd in his BB Juvie prep, but regressed drastically in the Juvie itself. Off a 7-week layoff he was back at the top of his game in a restricted stake, but followed that up with a loss in the G3 Thousand Islands. His saving grace there was that he just started moving way too late to make it happen, and the slightly lower SP wasn’t that bad. It’s really hard to say what the Freud colt will do. Will we see this colt’s true abilities, or will be throw another clunker?
Sdmf2 enters our other 14-1 horse, The Prophet’s Song. The beautifully bred Coronado’s Quest colt at first seems to be a bit of a reach in this field, but on second look he belongs here. Song debuted in a sprint maiden and won it handily by over 2 lengths. Moved up to allowance company, he ran second with a slightly improved SP. In his third and most recent start, he notched win #2 at 8.5 furlongs by 1 3/4 lengths. This trainer is known for craftiness in prepping 3yos for the classic campaigns, and his confidence in the colt is well-deserved. I would have liked to see Song tried in listed company first, but this race is not out of his reach.
The field longshot at 15-1 is wfstable3’s Don’ttouchmygold. The Touch Gold colt started his career neatly with some nice high SPs and string runs, but around the turn of the year was in a bit of a funk. So, to the grass he went last time out. He won for fun by almost 3, and posted an 87SP. Back to the main track now, he’s probably sitting on a really good race.
Handicapping this field is not easy. Lucky’s Capital and Watergate Scandal seem most likely to run 1-2 (not necessarily in that order) but filling out the top 5 is just too chancy to predict. This race ought to show us who’s hot on the Derby trail.