I’m Trying-G3

I’m Trying
Grade II
A mile and three sixteenths
Fast Dirt
$250,000
All horses, 3 years old

A capacity crowd is gathered today for the inaugural running of the I’m Trying-G3 stakes.  A very classy field of runner has entered for this 9.5 furlong race.  Many among the press have questioned such a late carding and especially at this distance.  In fact, this is longest race Bluegrass prep race the entire season and to find it in February has many wondering why.  Hmmm.  Makes you kind of wonder who likes longer distance races?  At any rate, a clear weather schedule has been forecasted as we take a step closer to that first Saturday in May.   

PP 1

11/1 DRUNKEN PIRATE(KY)

(DEHERE x WOODMAN x ELA-MANA-MOU(IRE))

Trainer:  tbgifted

Keeping Ela-Mana-Mou mares in business, trainer tbgifted sends his colt Drunken Pirate to the track once again is coming off a win last time out at this distance in the Too Short Special-Stk.  Hmmmm, makes you wonder about the carding here.  At any rate, this colt has shown a quick foot in just his only three starts and with the breeding to back it up seems oddly placed in odds at 11/1.  A bit of an overlay here?  It probably has more to do with his limited racing experience but since he’s the only one that has raced at this distance you might want to find a way to box him in your trifecta ticket.  He’s a deep deep closer so look for him in the late goings but his chances lay with how the pace sets up in the opening ½ mile.

PP 2

17/1 INTRUDER(KY)

(VICTORY GALLOP x EL PRADO(IRE) x FIT TO FIGHT)

Trainer:  super5

Intruder is still looking for that second win after breaking his maiden six races back.  This entry by the Super Corporation still may have a bit more growing up to do before he’s ready to take on graded company.  His connection have not been shy about running him against the best and have managed to hit the board twice in listed stake events but so far hasn’t shown much or at least what you would expect at this level.   He did show some encouraging promise at the end of the year on DelPenn day where he finished just ¾ of a length back but failed to duplicate that effort in his only start this year.  This may also be a make or break race for him as well as many of the others entered today.

PP 3

8/1 WELL PLAYED TED(IRE)

(THEATRICAL(IRE) x WELL DECORATED x GREEN DANCER)

Trainer:  pick6

Finding a better surface this time, Well Played Ted may have something more to show than he did last time on an off track in the Thousand Islands Stakes-G3.  He’s shown good signs of progressing in the past few months but seems to out ran in several of his attempts.  He does have one strong listed stakes win last year in The DOWN TO NINETEEN Stakes-Stk where he wired the field but I may have to question his stamina at this distance as he looks to max out at around a mile.  This race will answer many questions for his trainer pick6 and will more than likely let him know whether the horse can go the 10 furlongs required in the Bluegrass.

PP 4

6/1 TAXI DRIVER(KY)

(GHOSTZAPPER x MR. PROSPECTOR x BUCKPASSER)

Trainer:  bigmoose2

Making his first graded start this season, Taxi Driver trained by the Squirrel stables opens up as a co-favorite this afternoon.  He’s coming off a solid win last time out in the The California-stk where he sat comfortably behind the leader before making his move with little or no effort.  Although there’s no doubt that he has the speeds to justify his Bluegrass qualifications, many do question his #7 ranking without a graded win of any sort.  In fact, that last win was his first since winning an allowance race in his second start.  However, his very strong 2^nd place finishes in both the Movieland Futurity-G1 and the End Of The Line Futurity-G2 have been enough to quite most naysayers.  He took to nine furlongs rather well so I don’t think there’s any doubt that he can’t handle the distance in this one.  Strong first choice.

PP 5

12/1 SILVAKI(KY)

(SILVER GHOST x MISWAKI x STORM BIRD)

Trainer:  paceman2

The first of two entries by the Theatrical Barns, Silvaki is trying to quiet the critics who claim that his finish in The CRYSTAL SERENADE Cap-Stk wasn’t a fluke.  Although he ran a very game 2^nd he scored a lifetime best 100 SP but reverted back to his 80’s speed figure the following race in the Giant Slayer Classic-G3.  I don’t know, perhaps he just hasn’t moved along in development as some of his counter parts have.  As much as you want to dismiss him, that 100 SP just stands out and if he doesn’t show well today I’m sure we’ll be talking about him more as the season moves along.

PP 6

10/1 TULL’S BAI BAI(IRE)

(AZAMOUR (IRE) x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x DEVOTED RULER)

Trainer:  hebbe

MAVERICK’S LONG SHOT OF THE DAY!  If you like the long money then this may be your best chance.  Tull’s Bai Bai, running for the Nickesyd Racing stables, has put together two back to back runs that seem to stand out.  He had a very decent freshman season and continued on very steady developmental path and seems to be finding more run after turning three.  So far this season he has a win in The HORN KNEE SAL Handicap-Stk and finished a very respectable 3^rd last time out in the Giant Slayer Classic-G3.  I think that this may be his break out race that will put him a collision path with the Derby favorites.  He just seems to me poised for something more.  Nice bet at 10/1.

PP 7

7/1 CREEPY MESA(KY)

(SKY MESA x GREEN DANCER x WOODMAN)

Trainer:  darthblur

 Creepy Mesa made his Bluegrass intentions definitely known last time out in the Giant Slayer Classic-G3.  He finished a very close second to #1 ranked Degoldenstorm but just ran out of track while finishing only a ½ length back.  He seems perfect for the 9.5 furlong distance as he likes to close hard down the stretch and has never shown any signs of fatigue.  A perfect contender for the Bluegrass indeed.  Trainer, darthblur is perhaps a bit miffed at second billing after that performance but I wouldn’t let that get in the way.  Even with two other horses placed with better odds I think he’s the one to beat and at 7/1 I’ll be placing a huge win bet here.

PP 8

6/1 EUROTRASH(KY)

(EUROSILVER x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR)

Trainer:  Roberto

Our second co-favorite, Eurotrash seemed to have every thing going for him at the end of last season.  He was riding a three race listed stakes win streak with very powerful ratings for a two year old.  All seemed well until his first run of the season in the Giant Slayer Classic-G3.  Although he bet heavily, he never seemed to find his spot and was pinched at the first turn.  This unfortunately set him way pack of the leaders and a spot he’s not accustomed to and he failed to menace losing handedly to both Degoldenstorm and Creepy Mesa.  He seems to look better today in the barn and if he can find a faster early foot he should be in contention in this one.  He is also the second of two entries by the Theatrical Barns.

PP 9

12/1 SMOOTH AS BUTTER(NY)

(FREUD x SICYOS x MR. PROSPECTOR)

Trainer:  springtime

Running for the Bigrick Stables, Smooth As Butter may be ready to get back that form he had as a two year old.  His run last year in the End Of The Line Futurity-G2 really put him on the mat after beating fellow entrant Taxi Driver.  He followed that up two weeks later with another win in THE 1ST MINNESOTA JUVENILE — Owner Restricted-Stk but his first race of the season, the Thousand Islands Stakes-G3, found him running evenly but failing to fire when asked.  He was coming off a six week layoff in that race and he may be better prepared now in his second start and a fast track to boot. His best showings have been when he presses the pace from a length to two lengths back so you should see right away how his chances will be.

PP 10

21/1 HEROIC ALEX(KY)

(BELONG TO ME x SEEKING THE GOLD x BROAD BRUSH)

Trainer:  freeky3

Carrying the longest odds on the board and making his graded debut today is the Epic Stable’s Heroic Alex.  He’s coming off back to back allowance wins that shows some promise for this Belong To Me colt.  His last race stands out at least for me as he cruised home with little urging while posting a 91 SP in open allowance company and at nine furlongs.  He’s a toss up still as to how he’ll handle such a classy field as his only stake attempt was way back in September where he showed little.  Has he matured a bit more since then?  We’ll have to see but I would expect at least a decent run here.

PP 11

12/1 SWORD BREAKER(KY)

(SEEKING THE GOLD x DANZIG x BLUSHING GROOM(FR))

Trainer:  topicount4

After winning five of his fist seven starts as a two year old, Sword Breaker looked like a horse with

mission.  This included a strong win in the Let’s See What We Have Here Futurity-G3 where he scored with a lifetime best 94 SP but that was the last time he would even get close to winning or running with that type of speed.  His last two attempt in graded company have met with disappointment as he finished well of the lead and this may be his make or break race to determine his legitimate chance at the Bluegrass.  Veteran trainer topicount may have something up his sleeve here though.  Perhaps a change in riding strategy or something?

PP 12

10/1 EVEN STEPS TED(KY)

(VAN NISTELROOY x STEPHEN GOT EVEN x ST. JOVITE)

Trainer:  teamt

Obviously in a hurry to make a Derby statement, trainer teamt sends his colt Even Steps Ted back to the track for the fourth time this year.  This start will mark his 4^th start in 6 weeks but is coming off a win last time out in The LAKE HOME Special-Stk where he rated a 99 SP.  He will look to set the pace today but two questions just stick out to me.  One, can he handle the distance?  But more importantly, will he have anything to show with such a grueling racing schedule?  I’ve got to go with my gut instinct as a trainer here and say that he’s been pushed too hard and will have to pass.  Bet at your own risk.

PP 13

7/1 NAGASAKI(IRE)

(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x A.P. INDY)

Trainer:  casino

With a six week layoff, Nagasaki hopes to shake a series of unfortunate events that has plagued him in his last few starts.  This Giant’s Causeway colt looked very strong as a two year old after winning four consecutive stake races including a graded win the Little Tree Stakes-G3.  His connections seemed a little confused as to whether or not he could handle the classic distances but he a photo finish in The CAT BILL Bonanza-Stk where he rated a very strong 99 SP probably answered that question.  He’s coming off a disappointing finish last time out in the Silver Fence Derby-G3 but was simply outclassed with Gramid and Awesome Force in the mix.  The final speed rating for Gramid was an outstanding 105!  The layoff may help him get back in shape again and the pace seems to set up better for him in this race.  I think he’s ready to show more.

PP 14

14/1 LUCKY’S CAPITAL(ENG)

(WITH APPROVAL x KRIS(GB) x DAMASCUS)

Trainer:  winorplace

Having found new life on the dirt, Lucky’s Capital makes his third start on the main track and the results have been fabulous.  This colt showed good promise on the dirt early last year but his connections decided to run him in the four race Alpine Turf Club series and continued that trend in the weeds for the remainder of the year.  However, 2007 has so far equaled two listed stake wins in as many tries with the last coming in The DARE TO SAY GO Stakes-Stk where he posted a career best 97 SP.  His move here to graded company has to almost mandatory and with a whopping 14/1 odds it may be hard to resist.  I’ll make this my second LONG SHOT OF DAY!!!  Box on your tri-ticket and you’re looking a four digit payoff if he succeeds.   14’s are wild with this one.