Derby, Oaks or Bust

Time once again to update you on the progress of two Derby Oaks or Bust runners that appear to be on the same schedule race wise over the last couple of months. Deltatiger’s Matuta Mater and my runner Drained.

Delta how are things looking for Matuta Mater?

# 115619 Matuta Mater will be making her fifth career start this week, week 3000.  Typically, when I have a good 2 year old I only give them 5 or 6 starts at 2 then rest them until they turn 3, but that won’t work if I hope to get Mater into the Oaks.  So I’m looking at a couple of 8 furlong races for her this week, either the Alicenwonderland at Ontario or
the Walnut Tree in California, both at exactly 8 furlongs.

Given her pedigree (by Breeder’s Cup Classic winner Cat Thief) I don’t expect 8 furlongs
to be too far for her, though with Eclipse winning sprinter Gulch (by Mr. Prospector) as
DS and sprint infulence Phone Trick as DDS, I’m really glad that she’s a filly instead of
a colt.  The 9 furlongs of the Oaks might be within her reach, but I’m not so sure about
the 10 furlongs Derby.

Choosing between the two races is going to be difficult.  The Alicenwonderland is
ungraded, which may be a good thing for her first route, but won’t be much help in
gathering stakes points for the Oaks.  The Walnut Tree is a grade 2, which is good for
stakes points, but it’s got a 50% chance of an off track and she’s never tried an off
track before.  I don’t know what to expect from her if it rains.

Whichever race I enter her in, I am really hoping for a very strong race from her.
She’s making her second start following a longish break and she ran a decent race in her
last one, improving her best speed figure though not as much as I had hoped.  I was
really hoping for a speed figure in the 80s last time.  She’ll have to do at least that
well this week, or I’m going to start worrying that she’s not good enough to make the
Oaks.

Keeping my fingers crossed for a great race from her!

Delta we will be crossing our fingers as well. Matuta Mater was entered into the G2 Walnut Tree stakes race 3000.0115

My very own #115628 Drained had a rough outing last time out. I moved her up to the stakes level off a nice maiden win. I put her in against the boys in a listed stakes and she did not like that one bit. Trying for those extra stakes points fillies can earn against the boys. For the first time in her young career she found herself off the pace. She had an outside post and had no response when asked fading to finish seventh of eight runners.

This week she will get a chance on the turf. She has a turf pedigree (Dynaformer X Kingmambo X A.P. Indy) however the Dyanformer X Kingmambo cross has always produced dirt runners in the sim. Her speed figures have all been in the same area on the dirt so I am wondering if she might be a turf runner. If it turns out she does not like the turf at the very least the switch in surface could trigger improvement went moved back to the dirt.

For a turf try I thought I would be smart and drop her back to the allowance level. She will be making her turf debut in Florida this week race 3000.0204. Once again we have drawn outside in a field of eight. Her start speeds have been consistent right around the .85 mark except for her .80 performance when she lead gate to wire. With that sort of start speed figure I almost expect her to be a stalker type. As she matures so will the runners she faces and there will be much stronger pace horses to face in her future.

There is at least two runners two her inside that have run faster start speeds so I suspect she will be a little off the pace here sitting third our fourth early. If she likes the turf she should give a good account for her self. If not back to the drawing board.