Who Will Catch the Canary?
It’s an honor and a privilege to be covering this race today, since I recently retired the stakes record holder, Sacrilege. The Canary is a race full of surprises, where longshots can score big as we learn who has the mettle to last a grueling 14 furlongs. Adding to the mystery this year is an off track, a factor that can confuse predictions in the most mundane of races. There’ll be a full crowd of 14 fillies and mares heading to post this weekend, with several having a shot at the title.
La Pata Daisy, trained by Usoz, isn’t the oddsmakers’ favorite at 8/1, but I think she probably should be. The Sadler’s Wells mare is a solid performer at this distance and in graded stakes. She is perfectly happy on an off track and on top of that, she has ace jock P Bangs in the irons. I also like that she’s coming off a dirt race, which may fire her up for her preferred surface. She hasn’t won in a while, which raises questions about her competitive drive, but I have little doubt that this closer will at least manage to hit the board.
Jaded Lovers, trained by Ohjoanie, who goes off at 8/1 is a veteran of these longer races and has done all right at 14 panels. She’s more of an allowance/minor stakes horse, but this isn’t a particularly strong field. She’s 1-for-3 on off tracks, which could be better and could be worse. A solid, honest mare with a decent shot at a paycheck this weekend.
El Pye, trained by Lordpye2, is going off at 10/1 this weekend. I can’t say I’m real excited about her, but she could surprise. She’s only been on the grass once and that was a sprint, so it’s hard to say how she’ll take to this race. Has been okay as an allowance/overnight stakes mare in long dirt races; she’ll need to perk up with the surface switch to be a factor here.
Poker Storm, trained by Migman11, simply hasn’t shown the speed it’ll take to play a major part in this race. She’s a nice mare at the right level, but is out of her depth in graded company. Lousy jockey doesn’t help a bit.
Kryszostoniak, trained by Tfortiger, is going off at relatively short odds of 6/1 and should be a competitor in this race. She’s quite a story, having gone from starter allowance horse to Equinics silver medalist in only a few races. She’s not terribly consistent, going from that big Equinics race to a track-restricted allowance loss only a few races later. But the good news for her connections is that that big race of hers was at this very distance and on an off track. So if she can ever repeat that effort, this is the time.
Performer XP, trained by Azul25, will hit the gate at 19/1, but she’s still a quality mare. She has some nice wins in long races, including one on an off track, but hasn’t fared well in stakes company. She’s one of those who crushes allowance competition, but can’t seem to make the step up successfully. Overmatched here, but likely to have a long and successful career.
Basic Instinct, trained by Lenny29, is a sophomore filly who is really stretching out here. Her longest race to date was the 12-furlong Oaks de English, where she was sorely overmatched. She has a terrific record, but I’d like to see her succeed at this level or at this distance before I back her in a race like this one.
Rock River Quest, trained by Airbiscuit, is coming off a stakes win at this distance, but with only a 4-horse field. Her only off-track outing was at this distance and she didn’t do too well. She’s a nice mare who’s often placed well in small races, but a very full graded race is a whole ‘nother matter. She did luck out with a good jockey who’ll steer her well, but I doubt it will be enough.
PJ Seven Seas, trained by Osstable3, like several others here has been a solid contender in overnight stakes. This is longer than she usually runs, but she does have a stakes second at 14 furlongs. She doesn’t run speed figures as high as some others here, but she has a shot at stealing this race from the front and has won 2 of 3 off-track starts. With some careful management by her jockey, she could end up with a piece of the pie.
K’s Western Magic, trained by Sheen, is the race’s 5/1 favorite. Sadly, she managed to draw a truly lousy jockey for this race, but you can’t count her out based on that. This race looks just a bit longer than she’d prefer to go, though she has run some solid races at 14 furlongs – they just haven’t been her best. Her last couple of starts have been lackluster, including a 14-furlong race last time out. I have mixed feelings about her – she’s capable of running big, but my gut says she won’t this week. I certainly don’t consider her a good bet at these odds.
Western Pass, trained by Bomber93, is for my money the most interesting girl in the race. She’s coming off a stakes win at this distance and hasn’t been worse than second in quite a while. Granted, that was a 5 horse race, but she still finished with a time that would be competitive here. She’s done well on off tracks, too. This is a step up that will be a big test for her, but she’s earned the opportunity. She’s very much on form and at 15/1, I think she’s a steal.
Oh Susannah, trained by Squirrel5, is another intriguing youngster. She’s also coming off a confidence-building 14-panel win. It was an allowance, but still a nice race. I’d like to see speed figs a bit higher out of her, but she’s done well on off tracks and looks like a youngster who shouldn’t be written off.
Our Jacks, trained by Karen, is 7 years young, but only has 22 starts under her belt. She’s been competitive in allowances and overnight stakes, like a lot of the mares here. She looks to be solidly midpack in this race, but will be hurt by a jock with a 4% strike rate. This field is pretty well-matched and a jockey can make a big difference. Under the circumstances, I don’t like her chances.
Empire Taker, trained by Dormello, is last but not least in this crowd. She’s won a stakes at this distance and has lots of off-track wins, but she’s unpredictable. Her recent races have all been against very small fields, so I’m concerned that she won’t be able to handle the big field and the step up in class. Still, she has a strong record and could manage to come away with a paycheck.
That’s it! It should be an interesting race, since there are a lot of very closely-matched mares here. Western Pass stands out for me, but she has a lot to prove. Can’t wait to see what happens!