Year’s best turf 3YO fillies fill Sun State Cup(G1)
Queensland– Positively lovely field gathered for the Grade 1 $500,000 Sun State Cup. Seventh annual renewal for this 8 furlong turf battle-royale. It’s a championship-caliber field of 12 sophomore fillies, and, boy, are they loaded with black type!
What a fabulous group of graded winners — near each horse has won at least one grade this season and placed multiple times as well in other top-division contests. Tons of high-ranking fillies and we even have the #1 turf sprinter 3YO filly in Prabha(AUS).
All of these starlets race of course in the shadow of the greatest Sun State Cup(G1) winner: Hall of Fame heroine Storm Dog. The Storm Cat filly, one if not the best horse ever in Sim history, used this race as a prep to her first Breeders Bowl Mile victory in 2002.
And last year’s renewal signaled even greater things to come when Alberta Gold triumphed over Thirteenth Date. Both fillies are currently racing at the top level of their respective division this year. Also in last year’s field: the fabulous 2006 Horse Of The Year candidate Cold Storage. She’s actually #1 in the Older Female Turf Classic division and should be prepping soon (I hope!) for the Breeders Bowl Distaff.
Lots to live up to, but this field has all the markings to make past winners proud. Le’s take a look at the lineup……….
1 NOT A HONKY TONK(IRE) flickaspad T Brett 8/1
Not Impossible(IRE) lassie won the Michigan Sophomore Turf Invitational(G2-9fT) this springtime. She was an also-ran over that same distance a couple times since then. *However*, her best speed figures by far have been over a flat mile. ‘Honky lost a heartbreaker to Cosmo Girl (by a nose!) in the Cremation(G1-8fT) and finished runner-up in the Roberto Clemente(G2-8fT). Both races with 100+ SP#s! Stalker gains a so-so jockey. She’s got a real shot if she can just get some luck. Very much due for a break out performance over the mile. Ranked 7th in the division. I really like this gal. Comes in here on 4 weeks rest which is a bit of a breather for her. Great chance.
2 PEYRAGUDES limpid C Pearce 9/1
Aside from an Oaks de English(G1-12fT) debacle and an effort around one-turn, this Unbridled’s Song filly specializes in miler contests this season. Won the Haley’s Comet(G3-8fT) wire to wire as a stepping stone to a 3rd-place 1,000 Guineas finish. Ran a smart 100 SP# 4th in the Diana(G3-8fT) LTO. Very nice gal — certainly belongs here despite not finding the winner’s circle in a spell. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of speed here and the stalkers number high too. Should be in the hunt. Ranked #16. Worth a shot and perhaps luck will be on here side tomorrow.
3 STRICKEN sdmf6 Fr Miller 14/1
Still eligible for a NW3L, Dynaformer daughter is graded-placed a couple times this year over 9f and 10f. No big SP#s though and she finished well back when trying to shorten up to 8.5f LTO. Savvy trainer spots talent. Versatile near pace, but is probably best coming from far back. Would be a big surprise if she suddenly put it all together over the even mile. This is a real deep field to be experimenting in. Black type worthy, but this field has some realy genuine milers. Outside chance for the board. Despite her back class, I think this is a roll of the dice for this filly. Ranked #39.
4 TAKETHECAR ontarget2 L McNeal 15/1
Another graded winner in this Rainbow Quest granddaughter. Takethecar won the Si Senorita(G3-8fT) in a summertime photo finish. She’s sandwiched in a marathon experiment as well toughed out a couple 8.5f grades. Has yet to break the 100 SP# barrier. Races on 4 weeks rest, so hopefully fresh after so-so outing over 9f. Hmm….. tons of black type experience, but only 1 victory in her last 8 starts. Definitely deserves a shot at the big time. But is she comparable to the top of the division? Ranked #80 and hopes to climb in a hurry. Outside chance but unless she throws a huge SP#, she’s in the running for a minor share of the purse. Midpacker.
5 COSMO GIRL theoc2 S DeBerg 8/1
This Storm Cat daughter won a lot of Sim fans late last season. She didn’t race in the ’05 BB Juvy Filly Turf, but snared a couple grades afterwards that screamed of rising talent. However, Cosmo Girl didn’t duplicate that form when extending to 9f+. Thankfully, her trainer cut her back to turf sprints and the almighty Monster Mile where she won the Cremation(G1-8fT) and Cooked Cabbage Cup(G2-7.5fT). She cracked the 100 SP# barrier in both races too. Forced far back early on, ‘Cosmo rallied to fall short a length around six panels LTO — is she a sprinter or a flat miler? I love this filly! Fresh on 6 weeks rest. Good jockey in the irons. Versatile stalker/midpacker ranked 5th in the division. Let’s see if she is indeed a Monster Mare Miler.
6 SUNSHAFT mrbigb C Wyatt 9/1
Ranked #2 in the division, Stormshaft captured her division’s Equinics race this season as well as the Full Moon(G2-9fT). Saturday is the Mineshaft daughter’s first return to the flat mile in 7 races. The closer fell 3 lengths short in the Intercontinental Mile(G3-8fT) back in March. It was kind of a subpar race for her — her trainer experimented subsequently in the Adelaide Oaks(G1-12fT) and of course she’s been racing over 9f pretty much of late. Yet to break the 100 SP# barrier. That’s an interesting stat — does Stormshaft just suffer from inconsistency or will she enjoy the cutback to an even mile? Lots of question marks, but no doubt on class. Millionairess attracts top jockey C Wyatt (28%).
7 DANCE SEEKER rockriver T Cox 9/2
10-for-15 lifetime. Patient handling by the trainer of this Seeking The Gold royal bred. Lost a 1/2-length heartbreaker to Cosmo Girl in the Cremation(G1-8fT). Rode a big win streak into that race, including victories in the Latonia(G3-7fT) and Celine(G2-8.5fT). Gorgeous turf sprinter too — won with a listed level 108 SP# tour-de-force two back. Mmhmm…. impressive record around tw-turns, but gosh, I sure love those turf sprint SP#s. Definitely consider turf sprint speciality if it doesn’t go well Saturday. 5 weeks rest after forgettable 10f race versus colts…. yikes. Will get lots of speed to run at top jockey T Cox (13%) an added plus. OK, if Dance Seeker doesn’t win (or even just hits the board) Saturday, you gotta put her back in turf sprint grades. Look at Yoss’ site and see if there are anymore for older mares or heck, even males. There’s bound to be something — maybe even consider trying Grade 1 level males in the Because I Said So(G1) or Japan Sprint(G1), both after the Breeders Bowl. Would definitely prefer her to stay versus females though and, if successful, try males next season. LOL! Could write more, but gotta move on here. 🙂
8 PRABHA(AUS) united A Boyington 6/1
And on to the #1-ranked sophomore turf sprint filly. See my note above about Dance Seeker. 🙂 Testa Rossa(AUS) gal rides 3-race win streak including a Grade 1 in her last. All 3 races though came around one-turn. Matter of fact she’s 0-for-3 lifetime in routes and finished 4th in her only two-turns effort of the season (8.5f). Prabha was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths though…. but that was back in the springtime. Speedster unfortunately faces a scramble here for the early lead. Gorgeous lassie can tough out a duel though. She raced a couple times over the mile as a 2yo, set the pace and faded in those efforts. Let’s see if she improved at the distance at 3. Bit of a gamble, but certainly has the class. I like her around one-turn much, much better.
9 CANNOT COMPLY super13 T Phillips 5/1
Dual Grade 3 winner beat a couple of these in the Diana(G3) and Lillispelis(G3), both over a mile and 100+ SP#s. Rahy royal bred finished 5th, beaten 3 lengths, in the 1,000 Guineas as well. Ranked #10, she’s good for the pace or can sit back behind the lead. Don’t be fooled by this gal’s lack of flashy Grade 1 victories….. she’s blossoming into quite a runner. God jockey suspects that she’ll sit behind the pace. SP#s certainly suggest the odds, but she’s got to put it all together and finally win a big race. Could Saturday finally be her showcase? Lots of speed with this group, but Cannot Comply will be in the hunt.
10 ASCENDANCY lbgong V Hull 7/1
Rainbow Quest daughter finished 2nd to Cannot Comply in the Diana(G3-8fT). It was a huge 102 SP# bounce back. The early summertime Filly Turf Bonanza(G3-8fT) winner had previously rallied so-so over the same distance in a Grade 2. Promising filly bred to run all day. Stunning that she hasn’t tried 9f+! Here and there, but always competitive over the mile earlier this spring. Ranked #15 in the division and will close from the back of the pack. Great running style with this speed-laden field. Gotta try this gal 10f-12f soon. Talented and with a good shot if she can run back to her last.
11 CHOP NEVER STOPS jsimpson V Wakeman 11/1
Won the How Are You Gentlemen(G1-8fT) this springtime and finished 2nd, beaten only a 1/4-length in the 1,000 Guineas. Green Desert daughter then ran 4th in Cosmo Girl’s Cremation(G1-8fT). Sat out the summer and finally got back to the races 6 weeks ago in Prabha’s Green Bullet(G1-7fT). Again, she contested for the early lead in a big duel, only to falter down the stretch, beaten 3 lengths off the board. Has been idle since. Certainly a classy individual ranked #3 in the division. Yet to break the 100 SP# barrier, but it’s only a matter of time. Is she fit with only one race since the late springtime? In for a duel here with a so-so jockey aboard. Belongs with this group, but needs to prove she’s in form.
12 EVELIN paceman2 X Shelton 20/1
Obscure bred by Unbridled’s Song stallion Even The Score figures to factor into the pace hunt. Been mostly racing in marathons, setting the pace there to hang on for a couple graded placings. Didn’t get to the races till this season and makes her 13th start of the year. She’s got experience as a longshot, winning the Train Yard Special(G1-9fT) in just her 3rd career start back in late winter. Better than odds suggest — Evelin finished 4th versus 8.5f Grade 2 company recently. Kind of a wildcard though. Lots of speed here too, so she’ll have to handle a mad scramble. Hasn’t really gone forward after such a promising beginning to her career. However, trained by one of the most successful players ever in the Sim (theatrical). He can spot talent. This one seems like a flip the coin entry though.
Snowchief’s Picks:
I like Prabha and Dance Seeker better around one-turn, but the latter could hit the board. Sunshaft’s been racing longer and is a wildcard over this distance. Ascendancy ran great over the mile recently, but I like her definitely better going long. Stricken and Evelin might be in over their heads. Takethecar has a lot to answer for, but she might surprise with a minor share pick-up run.
Cannot Comply and Peyragudes both threw huge numbers LTO and are certainly in form. Unfortunately, they’re gonna get a lot of competition for frontrunner (or near frontrunner) honors here.
So I like this winner to come from off pace. Chop Never Stops has had her ups and downs all year — she’ll love to close from back with the cooking speedsters up front. Don’t know if she’ll show up though, but if she does… watch out.
But I think it comes down to the midpacker Cosmo Girl. This could be her best distance — just a gorgeous Storm Cat filly and have long been a fan of hers. And Not A Honky Tonk(IRE) who finished 2nd to Cosmo Girl over the mile earlier this season. However, I also think Cannot Comply will sit back a bit behind the lead and is ripe for another big race (if she doesn’t bounce again off her last). I’m gonna go with I think is the best horse in the field …..
Win: Cosmo Girl
Place: Not A Honky Tonk(IRE)
Show: Cannot Comply
Longshot: Chop Never Stops
Minor shares: Ascendancy, Dance Seeker
Good luck to all in this wonderful Breeders Bowl-quality race! Just a word of warning — even if your filly fails to hit the board, don’t give up on the Monster Mile. This is such a superb gathering. 🙂